Incidentally, is everyone on the Clinton campaign a resentful white male who time-traveled from 1984 just so they could get another whack at Gary Hart?
One Clinton aide yesterday derided Mr Obama's victories in "boutique" caucus states rather than the hardscrabble terrain of the rustbelt, saying: "Obama has won the small caucus states with the latte-sipping crowd. They don't need a president, they need a feeling."
Looks like Obama's strength in caucuses is continuing. However, since this is the last caucus outside of Guam and a possible caucus in name only in Michigan, his dominance in caucuses is also ending. The key number to watch in terms of delegates is 64.286%. If Obama goes over that number, the pledged delegate split is 8-4. If he goes under that number, the pledged delegate split is 7-5.
Update: Laramie County has reported now, so basically this is all over. It looks like an Obama win with a 7-5 delegate split.
* = The 14 Iowa delegates for Edwards might switch at the March 15 county caucuses. ** I did not include the new online poll showing Obama up 14 in Texas, which I think is utterly bougs.
Would winning Ohio and Rhode Island be enough for Clinton to continue on to Pennsylvania? It isn't clear. Obama will clean up in Vermont, Wyoming and Mississippi, and also probably win the delegate count in Texas. Overall, this means it is unlikely that Clinton will make up any ground at all in the pledged delegate count between now and March 15th.
Still, I think that Clinton will continue forward to Pennsylvania as long as she wins Ohio. With superdelegates, Florida, and Michigan included, she still leads the overall delegate count by 31. (Actually, only 23 if you use my delegate count. Even then, that is only because she leads Michigan 80-1.) As long as she leads in some sort of delegate count, and can win Ohio on March 4th, I just don't see her dropping out after the extensive arguments her campaign has made on those subjects. Obama's path to the nomination right now seems to be either to win both Ohio and Texas, or to win Pennsylvania and take the lead according to all delegate counts.
When I took a leave of absence from my job in Washington in 2000 to work in the Montana Senate race, I didn't have much clue what I was in for. Growing up on the East Coast, I thought of the Intermountain West as a huge, far-off, mysterious place of square states and cattle herds - and like many people on the coasts, I didn't know much else.
In the years since that first campaign, I have been working in and reporting on the West, telling people what I say in my new nationally syndicated newspaper column today: That this region is the most politically misunderstood place in America.
(Update by Matt): Facebook has instant snapshot polling, and this is consistent with Republican exit polls on youth voting, when you consider the internet-usage intensity of Facebook users. Romney is below McCain on Facebook, Ron Paul is wildly popular, and Huckabee is a strong second place behind Paul.
This is an open thread for the two debates tonight. The Republican debate runs from 7:00-8:30 p.m. eastern, and the Democratic debate runs from 8:45-10:15 p.m. eastern.
Two quick notes. First, Romney wins Wyoming convincingly, but since it isn't being covered much that probably won't give him any momentum. It will, however, help him justify pushing forward, even with a bad result in New Hampshire.
Second, two new polls from the University of New Hampshire and the Concord Monitor. The six New Hampshire polls released today show an average of Obama 33.2%, Clinton 31.2%, Edwards 19.2%, and Richardson 5.0%. On the Republican side, the averages stand at McCain 32.7%, Romney 27.8%, Huckabee 12.0%, Giuliani 9.5%, and Paul 8.5%.
NEGATIVE NEWS UPDATE from Matt: One, Clinton has sent out a mailer criticizing Obama for not taking a position on abortion votes in Illinois.
Two, AFSCME went harshly negative on Obama, and the AFSCME board is revolting against the decision by publicly pressuring President Gerald McEntee to stop the attacks. McEntee built labor's modern political program, and he was the first major labor leader to back Bill Clinton in 1992. He is intensely loyal to the Clinton's and the current Democratic establishment (including strong support for Al Wynn). Lots of people made their bones with Clinton in 1992, and they will do as much as they can to preserve their suburbanized model of politics. EMILY's List is another organization working extremely hard for Clinton with poor results so far (their Iowa program was interesting but Clinton did not outperform with women).
The kind of public dissent we're seeing within AFSCME is rare within labor, but it's a good sign of vibrant internal debate. There are generational fights at all levels within the Democratic party.
I'm really happy to announce the next endorsement on the Blue Majority page, Wyoming candidate Gary Trauner. Like several of Blue Majority's candidates, Trauner nearly won in 2006. He was up against super-wingnut Barbara Cubin, and lost by only .5%, 47.8% to 48.3%, with the balance going to the libertarian in the race. Cubin, instead of running for reelection, has chosen retirement.
The Republican establishment in Wyoming is in disarray, with a probable field of 5-7 candidates vying for the nomination (the primary is in August). Possible Republican establishment choices include former state treasurer Cynthia Lummis and Cheney acolyte Tom Sansonetti, both of whom sought to fill the Senate position opened up when Craig Thomas died, and that John Barrasso now occupies.
The progressive movement in the age of the internet keeps bringing us new experiences: forming partnerships with allies we never meet face-to-face; celebrating a marriage of a new friend you only know online; and mourning the loss of those whose presence in our lives may have been virtual but was still very real.
The Drinking Liberally community learned last week of the passing of Mike Oxley, our chapter leader in Laramie, Wyoming. We knew Mike as an enthusiastic force for progressive politics who brought that passion to the homestate of Dick Cheney. We knew him as a dedicated organizer and an optimist, which couldn't have been easy in that conservative region. And we knew him only through email.
Others in his life knew him as a volunteer firefighter, a member of the local planning commission, a devoted peace activist and as a future husband. (You can read more in his full obituary and the testimonial from Stand Up For Peace Wyoming.)
This loss makes me realize two intertwined ideas about where we are politically: one about our movement, another about our community.
First, our movement: there are talented people all over it. This man sounds remarkable and it's my sadness I didn't know him better. But across the grassroots organizations around this country there are countless volunteers and leaders who embody the energy and commitment we need to create a more progressive America.
And it's not just in these small gatherings: online, we're realizing more and more how much talent surrounds us. For the Bush Dog project, Matt Stoller has relied on volunteer researchers/writers; during last year's Use It or Lose It campaign, Chris Bowers turned to a virtual support staff that materialized at a moment's notice.
I'm really happy to announce the next endorsement on the 
