New jobless numbers out today: the official number for October is 10.2 percent. I decided to see how closely related President Obama's approval numbers are with unemployment. I used these data points for unemployment:
Feb: 8.1 percent
Apr: 8.9
Jun: 9.5
Aug: 9.7
Oct. 10.2
I got average disapproval numbers from Pollster.com:
Feb: 24 percent
Apr: 32
Jun: 35
Aug: 40
Oct: 44
When you run a simple correlation you get 0.987544 or about 99 percent. Now, correlation is not causation. These trends could be entirely independent. Lots of other things have probably trended upward over the same period. But: 1) there is a logical connection between these two and 2) the trends are not just similar but are almost perfectly correlated.
Conservatives would say the correlation is really between Obama's disapproval and the national debt. But consider this: are people more concerned about their ability to feed and clothe their families or about the abstract debt? And if people worried about debt are offered the choice of lowering the debt by ending wars or by eliminating job creation plans, which will they choose?
We need a stronger focus on job creation regardless of who bears the most blame for job destruction.
It is has been widely reported that Americans strongly support the job Barack Obama has been doing as President-elect. Honeymoon period. Not surprising except the level of support (exceeding 70 percent in some polls) is very high. My assumption, however, was that the 25-30 percent who don't support him would really dislike him (W loyalists).
According to Rasmussen polling that was the case in the days after the election: 32 percent of those polled strongly disapproved. But that has changed rather dramatically over the last two months:
As you can see, in the most recent poll only 13 percent say they strongly disapprove.What caused this sharp decline? Here are some possibilities:
1. The public likes the job Obama is doing during the transition. The cabinet picks, the press conferences, etc. The "centrist" picks reassure worried Republicans.
2. Some former "haters" have just gotten used to the idea of Obama as President. Some may still disapprove, just not "strongly." Others may be at least tepid supporters at this point.
3. Bandwagon effect. Since so many people seem so happy with him, disapprovers have given up saying they strongly disapprove. I'd be inclined to give this some credence except Ramussen uses robocalls and there's really no peer pressure keeping the respondent from answering honestly.
4 (my favorite). The months of negative attacks on Obama, calling him a terrorist symphathizer or even a secret terrorist leader, the anti-Christ, etc. scared many people into not just opposing Obama but being fearful. Without the constant barage of negative messaging, voters are beginning to see Obama in a different light.
It doesn't seem the Blagojevich story has done much to keep the "strong disapprovers" strongly disapproving. Because no evidence has emerged to refute the widely reported story that Obama would offer Blagojevich nothing but "gratitude" this episode may have helped Obama in many voters' eyes.
This ad is from DKos diarist cartwrightdale, re-presented in his diary "Our anti-McCain ads are going on the air! (w/your help!!)". It uses a very simple conceit--as the American people's approval of Bush has declined, McCain's support for him has increased. A simply notion, no? But look at how effectively it's presented:
This is the future, folks. Better ideas from below. Not just in political ads, but in everything. It's soooooo American!
This diary is a response to reader's requests, including approval ratings from Bush's first term, cartograms, and showing urban areas.
First, the state approval map and lower 48 county cartogram for Fall 2007. A cartogram is a map where the size of each geographic unit, in this case each county, is based on something other than land area, in this case population. It's especially useful in politics because land doesn't vote, people do. For a great introduction to cartograms, see BentLiberal's diary here.
Click to enlarge.
On the left, sagebrush has a bigger visual impact than New York City; on the right, urban areas get their fair share.
Approval of congressional Democrats stands at 43 percent, twice that of Congress in general. The flip side, however, is that Democrats who control Congress still face a disapproval rating of 51 percent, a figure that has increased 11 percentage points since March.
"The ratings for Congress overall have been mired in the mid- to low 20s for several months, but for most of the year, Americans have had a positive view of the Democrats in Congress," said CNN polling director Keating Holland. "That's not true any longer -- this poll is the first time we have found majority disapproval for the Democratic leaders' track record since they took control of Congress."
"I think it is important to remember that when Congress performs well, when it actually addresses the big issues of the day, it tends to be rewarded in the public's view of Congress," Binder said. "If today's approval ratings are down in the dumps, we probably shouldn't be surprised. On the big issues of the day, Congress doesn't seem to be doing very much."
The poll is not great, since it doesn't break down respondents by party ID. There are probably two ways out of this. One, begin passing lots of awesome legislation and convince Bush to sign it. Two, fight Bush with everything you've got.
According to the AP, the public doesn't like Congress.
Public satisfaction with the job lawmakers are doing has fallen 11 points since May, to 24 percent, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll. That's lower than for President Bush, who hasn't fared well lately, either...
Poll respondents from both political parties say they're tired of the fighting between Congress and the White House, and want the two branches of government to work together on such issues as education, health care and the Iraq war.
But does this make any sense?
Tammy Lambirth, 42, a data researcher from San Antonio, disapproves of "all the fighting that they do all the time."
...
"The Republicans are just stonewalling everything, and the Democrats are just not stepping up and making them do what they need to do, especially about Iraq," said Lambirth, a Democrat. "They need to make our troops get out of Iraq."
Here's the same person, literally the same person, saying that Democrats need to stop fighting with Republicans while at the same time forcing them to do things the Republicans don't want to do.
I don't have a lot of insight here. It seems like these two instincts are contradictory.
Thoughts? Is there some large group of passive aggressive Americans in every polling sample I don't know about? I'm sure this is something you pollsters and politicians out there know a lot about.
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