Note: Polls have tightened some since I wrote the first draft of this on Friday, but there's nothing below that I would change at this point, having tweaked it already a wee bit this morning.
As we've now entered the last three weeks of the campaign, an instructive comparison can be made to where we were just entering the last three months of the campaign, when I wrote a diary, "Swing State Clusters Tell Story of Potential 'Map-Changing' Obama Landslide". (Some maps from that diary reappear on the flip.) Obama's lead in the national polls is up from where it was, as is his projected margin in electoral votes. But the number of Red States potentially in play has plummeted dramatically. There is fairly straightforward explanation for this--the normal consolidation of the bases, combined with the drop in undecideds as low-info voters finally tune into the race. But on the flip I argue for a slightly more nuanced exaplanation. To kick things off, here are the basics in visual form:
National Polls
Chris's Presidential Forecast 07/29
Electoral College: Obama 264, McCain 172, Toss-up 102
National popular vote: Obama 47.2%-41.6% McCain
Chris's Presidential Forecast 10/18
Electoral College: Obama 349, McCain 166 Toss-up 23
National popular vote: Obama 49.8%--43.2% McCain
This map from Pollster.com--like the maps Chris has been posting here for more than two months--tells a vivid story of a potential Obama landslide in the Electoral College, a "map-changing" victory, if you will:
Of course it's only "potential" at this point. There's a long way to go till election day. But as I noted in a quick hit yesterday, also over at Pollster.com, UMass Amherst Poly Sci Prof Brian Schaffner explained:that "Obama had been tied or ahead in 50 consecutive national polls through Sunday," and that meant there was only a .0000000000000009 chance that the race was actually tied at this point.
Schaffner lead his brief post with this priceless quote:
"We have a race that by every measure of every poll is a statistical dead heat. McCain's not supposed to be in this thing, and Obama's supposed to be blowing everybody away and it just isn't happening, at least to this point."
Lou Dobbs (July 17th, Lou Dobbs Tonight)
The state-level view only serves to underscore the boundless cluelessness of Versailles.
In this diary, I want to do a brief walk-through of four regions where three or more states are in some state of play, each of which alone would spell big trouble for John McCain. You can see them quite easily on the map above: The "Mountain Swing" region consisting of the three yellow states Nevada, Arizona and Colorado, plus the light blue state of New Mexico; the "Northern Plains Swing" region consisting of yellow states Montana and North Dakota, plus the light red state of South Dakota; the "Midwest Swing" region, consisting of yellow states Missouri and Indiana, plus light blue states Iowa and Ohio; and the "Southeast Swing" region, consisting of yellow states Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. Put them all together, and they don't just spell "trouble" with capital T and that rhymes with P and that stands for poll. They spell unmitigated disaster. Sort of like the last 8 years.
In a follow-up diary, I'm going to look at the "mapping-changing" meme in terms of election results from 1896 to date. So think of this as the microscopic view, with the telescopic view to follow.
STATE BLOGS
