Per my last blog post on depression in the business lobbying world, the National Association of Manufacturer's, one of the 'gang of six' hardcore conservative business lobby groups, is axing 10% of its staff though of course not its higher level senior staff, since expensive Republican lobbyists are so valuable in this environment. One point made this morning at my Carlyle group sponsored corporate meeting is that dues for associations are on the chopping block. If I were a mean liberal, I'd probably argue that these are the kinds of frivolous expenses that companies getting government assistance shouldn't be able to shell out. Meddling in politics is only for healthy companies.
One reason the backlash in 1994 was so powerful is because it was well-funded by wealthy interests with discretionary income. This recession, though, is hitting corporations and wealthy individuals right where it hurts, through the credit market, so to the extent that this recession continues through 2009 and 2010, it may actually impede the regrowth of the conservative movement. Once these lobbying groups start weakening, they become less relevant, and it's something of a vicious cycle as revenue streams collapse.
If I'm a business lobbyist in town, I'm focusing my energy on getting business from green companies and the tech world to take advantage of an open government and green stimulus. We may see a very different 'business community' emerge.
The reason Obama is so powerful within the party is not because he is the Presidential nominee, but because he has consolidated money and media around his brand. Money and media are the oxygen of politics, and with his consolidation of the financial conduits, there are only a few independent centers of power left. The netroots is one, as is EMILY's List and Moveon. But the union movement is by far the biggest outside actor, and with its reliability of contributions and support, large warchest, and institutional memory, it is worth understand its internal changes and its death fight with the business groups on the right, which will in all likelihood attempt to become part of the Democratic coalition in 2009 and rot us from within.
Right now, the National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation, which is funded by large conservative industrial barons, is trying to undermine the biggest union in the country, SEIU. SEIU has been having strong public disagreements about organizing philosophies, which is a sign of health for the union movement, even though the disagreements have become vicious struggles for power. Recently, for instance, the SEIU DC leadership filed a lawsuit against its dissident local United Health Care Workers West (UHW) in California alleging financial improprieties, was dismissed without a hearing. That lawsuit was the first step in 'trusteeing' that local, removing their leadership and installing a more compliant crew to run that California branch.
While the specifics of the fight between SEIU's leaders in DC and their leaders in California are open to debate, the move to consolidation of power into a centralized entity is undeniable. There are good reasons for wanting centralized power - most significantly coordination improves - as well as reasons to fear it. Recently, at the SEIU Convention, the union adopted - through a democratic process - an amendment to step up member giving through their PAC, the largest PAC in the country which uses tens of millions of dollars a cycle. What this means is that there will be more campaigns by people like Donna Edwards, as SEIU can now focus its energy wherever opportunities open up. It also forces SEIU locals to organize their own members better so as to increase member donations, and that's a good thing. There are however some possible legal problems in the offing.
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