congressional polls

Obama Should Not Be Trailing Congressional Democrats

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 19:00

A comparison of presidential and congressional polls this cycle quickly shows that Obama is running well behind congressional Democrats. However, in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004, the Democratic nominee for President outperfomed the collective Democratic result for the national U.S. House elections. It's true:

1992 Presidential national popular vote margin: Clinton +5.56%
1992 U.S. House national popular vote margin: Democrats +5.1%

1996 Presidential national popular vote margin: Clinton +8.51%
1996 U.S. House national popular vote margin: Democrats +0.3%

2000 Presidential national popular vote margin: Gore +0.51%
2000 U.S. House national popular vote margin: Republicans +0.3%

2004 Presidential national popular vote margin: Bush +2.46%
2004 U.S. House national popular vote margin: Republicans +2.6%

Several items of note in these numbers, which I describe in the extended entry.

There's More... :: (71 Comments, 461 words in story)

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