All charges against the Democracy Now! Journalists arrested at the Republican convention have been dropped:
Charges Dropped Against Democracy Now! Journalists - Investigation Needed
The St. Paul City Attorney's office announced Friday it will not prosecute Democracy Now! journalists Amy Goodman, Sharif Abdel Kouddous and Nicole Salazar. St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman also issued a statement Friday that "the city will decline to prosecute misdemeanor charges for presence at an unlawful assembly for journalists arrested during the Republican National Convention."
Both announcements come two weeks after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention where over 40 journalists were arrested while reporting on protests taking place outside the convention center.
Upon learning of the news, Democracy Now! Host, Amy Goodman said, "It's good that these false charges have finally been dropped, but we never should have been arrested to begin with. These violent and unlawful arrests disrupted our work and had a chilling effect on the reporting of dissent. Freedom of the press is also about the public's right to know what is happening on their streets. There needs to be a full investigation of law enforcement activities during the convention."
An investigation is indeed necessary, but I am already pretty sure about what happened:
Then, at the convention, the police went out and illegally beat up $10 million worth of progressives, including progressive media. It was a free beating for them.
In short, the Republican Party paid for $10 million of thuggery against progressives. You know, like a garnish on their convention. How can a gathering of conservative authoritarians be complete without a good hippie beat down, anyway? Here is the video of one of the Democracy Now! Journalists being arrested, which I think tells a clearer tale of this than even the often viewed Amy Goodman video:
He is John McCain, and he approved this message.
Basically, with no cause, police ran over and beat up some members of the progressive media. They did it because the money they will lose from civil suits over the matter has already been paid. So, of course the charges were dropped. There were no real charges. It was beating, paid for by the Republican Party, pure and simple.
I spent the first three days of the week at an independent media conference in Upstate New York. Spending time around politically focused progressives during an election inevitably resulted in hearing literally dozens of theories on why Obama has been improving these past four days. The many theories can be consolidated into four main categories, all of which I believe have some credibility.
Random thoughts for a Thursday evening, as the convention and vice-presidential season draw to a close:
Two focus groups of independents and undecideds did not like Palin's speech. The groups were conducted in Michigan and Nevada, respectively. So far, I haven't seen any reports of focus groups that liked Palin's speech.
There seems to be an absolute ceiling of about, or just over, 6% for Obama's national lead. No matter what has happened in this campaign, he has been unable to beat that number. There also seems to be a natural, absolute floor of about, or just less than, a 2% deficit. That a campaign with this many emotional highs and lows, twists and turns, comings and goings, has never wavered from this fairly narrow, 8% range, strikes me as important. I highly doubt that the campaign ever will move outside that range, and that the final results will be somewhere from a 6% Obama victory to a 2% McCain victory.
The amount of attention that Palin is attracting is, with the exception of Barack Obama himself, unlike anything I have ever seen before in politics (I only started paying attention to politics at the age of 10 in 1984, so that is my frame of reference). Not only did she nearly match Obama's viewers last night, but even blogosphere traffic went through the roof with her selection. The last three days have been the biggest days of traffic for Daily Kos ever, including Election Day 2004. At Open Left, our traffic is the equal of our best days ever, the ten day stretch from February 3rd through February 13th (Super Tuesday through Donna Edwards). Obama's news conference was entirely about Palin. Really, it seems that everyone is obsessed with Palin right now.
I had my doubts before, but now with Palin and the huge number of people watching both conventions, I am convinced this is going to be a very high turnout election. The Democratic base has also been massively energized by their opposition to Palin, as Obama is on track to raise $10M today alone.
McCain has been thoroughly overshadowed by his running mate. It is hard for me to see how that is good for him. I think he went way too far in the "balance" direction, and will come off as old, crusty, worn-out and uninspiring tonight. There is something very "Kerry-Edwards" about the Republican convention this year, from the flashy running mate to the constant harping on being a veteran. If McCain gets shown up by Palin, how will anyone end up voting for him? All Palin does is reinforce Obama.
Even though the tracking polls will be better for McCain tomorrow (and the new, weird, CBS tracking poll already is), that is mostly because Monday's great numbers for Obama will be removed. I'm not sold that this convention will help him. From focus groups not liking Palin, to downplaying issues and keeping a Kerry-like focus on being a war hero, to being shown up by his running mate, and to really everyone at this convention except Palin being a bad speaker, this entire affair might not age well for McCain over the coming several weeks.
We are now nearly two weeks into the convention and vice-presidential season. By this point, I have heard more opinions on the quality of the various picks and of various speeches to last me another four years. Also, I am seeing an increasing number of progressives online argue that Palin's speech will give the Republican ticket a boost. Some go even further, and argue that Palin has generally been a benefit to the McCain campaign.
As far as the first claim goes, the jury is still out. Tracking polls won't include responses post-Palin until tomorrow morning. However, given that Monday was a very good day in the tracking polls for Obama-Biden, it is likely that McCain will gain 1-2% in the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls tomorrow. Also, Palin's speech scored a huge audience, which could help Republicans, too (or hurt them, if they watched Giuliani's speech first). Currently, Obama leads by 7% in Gallup, and 5% in Rasmussen.
The second claim, that Palin has generally been a benefit to the Republican ticket, can be quantifiably shown to be false. One need only to look at the national polling trend chart at Pollster.com to see this (more in the extended entry):
Palin just delivered exactly the same identity-based attacks that McCain and Republicans have been using all summer against Obama. Those attacks only resulted in Obama's favorables rising, and were ineffective. The idea with Palin seems to be that if those attacks are delivered by someone with a different demographic profile, maybe they will work this time.
I doubt it. Palin was the best speaker they had in terms of style, but I don't think the problem with the attacks is that they wanted for style or demographic posturing.
What do you see tonight? After watching two nights of this stuff, I had forgotten about how Republicans saw themselves as just a bunch of purely good people who are opposed by a shadowy, sneering liberal minority. That even actually seems to be their entire platform, as everything they propose somehow stems from that belief.
Here are some random observations on tonight's proceedings:
I liked the parade of losers early on. The woman who was kicked out of Hewlett Packard, followed by the guy who lost a Senate race badly last year.
Using so many speeches to trash eloquent speeches (the "mere words are not enough" attack that everyone uses on Obama) feels very post-modern.
Linda Lingle said that Palin would be a great Vice-President because she could help Republicans win more young voters, women voters, and independent voters. Usually, you don't hear such open-faced, process-oriented, demographic targeting in a political speech. Linda Lingle's message to voters "you should like Sarah Palin, because she will increase the Republican share of the vote in several demographic groups."
From what I understand, McCain refused an offer of early release from his POW camp because his men weren't being released, too. However, none of these speakers ever say that this is the reason he stayed. They just say that McCain refused release because he loved America. Without the larger context, it kind of sounds stupid.
Rudy Giuliani said that every four years people tell you that the upcoming election is the most important ever, and you shouldn't believe people who tell you that. Then, he said that this was the important election ever, and you should believe him. Then, when the crowd chanted "U-S-A, U-S-A!" he dorkily said in emotionless monotone and our of rhythm, "Yes. USA."
"Rill, baby, drill" seems to be the only idea equal to America for these delegates. From what I gather, drilling is the only issue more important than protecting zygotes among the crowd. Drilling and zygotes are clearly at the top.
Anyway, this is an open thread for Palin's speech.
The Nielsen ratings are in for last night's Republican National Convention featuring George W. Bush, Fred Thompson and Joe Lieberman:
RNC Tuesday: 21.5 million viewers
Compare that to the Democrats Tuesday when Mark Warner and Hillary Clinton were the main speakers:
DNC Tuesday:26 million
That 21.5 million represents a slight decrease for Republicans compared to 2004 when they drew 22.2 million viewers. Thanks to mother nature, the RNC lost their first night. Democrats drew over 22.3 million on their Monday.
Tonight Republicans might do better as people tune in to see what the heck Sarah Palin might say. The DNC third night, highlighted by Joe Biden, drew 24 million viewers. Barack Obama came in just under 40 million on Thursday.
Obama will be reaching even more viewers this Thursday when he appears on Bill O'Reilly's show. In terms of reaching large numbers it's a good bet since Fox was the highest rated channel for the Republican Convention in 2004 and will likely be again the night John McCain accepts his party's nomination. I still prefer the "starve Fox of credibility" that a bunch of Republicans talking ONLY to themselves would help facilitate but you've got to like Obama's chances to make O'Reilly look silly if he tries his usual schtick. I have a feeling we'll be seeing a subdued O'Reilly, however.
In regards to Palin, progressive media has performed beautifully so far. So much has been dug up so much on Palin that she has practically become a national joke, and the McCain campaign is even blaming the progressive blogosphere for this result. From this point forward, the key for progressive media is to make sure that we keep attacking from virtually every angle except for the "lightweight" angle.
I have managed to get online using a computer with a screen and a keyboard that are each slightly smaller than one of my hands. It was incredibly frustrating not being able to blog during that train wreck, but here are some quick thoughts:
Nothing says "change" like being endorsed by being endorsed by Bush in prime time.
Lieberman called himself a Democrat twice. Twice.
Given how amazing John McCain is at wo0rking across party lines, why is partisanship even a problem at all in the Senate?
The cognitive dissonace and obvious pandering, superficiality of Republicans cheering Bill Clinton was priceless.
Why, exactly, are families "off the table?" Republicans have campaigned for decades on their "family values." Also, several speakers tonight talked about adoption. Further, the biggest applause lines of the night came from calls to outlaw abortion. Yet further, spouses always give speeches at conventions like these, and always appear on the campaign trail. If you can campaign on families, why can't your family be questioned? Kinda feels like candidates, especially Republicans, wanting to have their cake and eat it, too.
The entire Republican argument for their ticket feels extremely forced and theoretical. It isn't what Republicans actually believe and like to run on in most cases. Can't imagine that twisting yourself to be able to cheer for Bill and Hillary Clinton makes much sense to Republicans.
The only way that tonight helped McCain is that it might take some attention off Palin. Otherwise, pretty terrible. I wonder how many people stuck around after Bush and Thompson to hear Lieberman's somewhat better speech.
Tonight will not be reflected in the tracking polls tomorrow morning.
This is an open thread. What did you see tonight? What impact will it have?
CBS has a new poll out, entirely post-Palin and post-Democratic national convention, that shows Obama ahead 50%-42%, with leaners. The previous CBS poll, conducted in the middle of August, showed Obama only ahead 47%-45% with leaners, so this is a significant jump.
Overall, with leaners includeds, the four polls conducted entirely post-convention and post-Palin show Obama ahead 49.3%--44.8%, versus 46.0%--46.0% in those same four polls conducted before the convention. So far, the combined effect of the Democratic convention and the two Vice-Presidential choices is a 4.5% net gain for Obama. Just as importantly, Obama is now knocking on the door of 50%, and the number of undecideds in the electorate has dropped.
Palin has failed to make a dent in Obama's lead. And now, if anything, McCain is poised to slip back even further. There will be no free media tonight for the McCain campaign, as the prime time speeches at the Republican convention have been cancelled. And, as I explain in the extended entry, it only gets worse for Republicans from there.
Has there been a convention bounce for Obama? If so, how large? Right now, only three polls are available to provide a measurement. This morning's Rasmussen poll (August 29-31) shows Obama ahead 49%-46%, which compares to a 46%-46% tie in the polling immediately before the convention (August 23-25). CNN has a new poll out showing Obama ahead 49%--48%, compared to 47%--47% just before the convention. Gallup shows a larger improvement, as a two-point McCain lead in the immediate pre-convention polling has now turned into a six-point Obama advantage.
On average, this shows a four-point improvement for Obama, although most polls have not released their post-convention numbers yet, thus leaving the size of the bounce unknown. However, beyond the net increase, the most important shift that occurred over the past week is the drop in the number of undecideds. Pollster.com illustrates this shift nicely (more in the extended entry):
Both of today's tracking polls, Rasmussen (Obama 49%--45% McCain) and Gallup (Obama 49%--41% McCain) where identical to yesterday's three-day rolling average. This means that Friday polling was virtually identical to Tuesday polling, since today's tracking polls replaced Tuesday's numbers. At most, the difference between Tuesday and Friday was 1-2%, which could be erased via rounding to the nearest integer. And there does appear to be some difference, as Gallup implies that Friday was slightly worse for Obama than Tuesday:
On this day -- with strong partisan forces pushing the public in both directions -- Obama still polled better than he had been prior to the convention, but not as well as he was polling on the individual nights of the convention.
Even though the Palin pick has drawn a lot of attention today, keep in mind that it won't appear in any newspapers until tomorrow. Further, the Democratic convention had huge ratings, way ahead of the 2004 convention:
More than 38 million people tuned in Thursday night to watch Barack Obama accept the Democratic nomination at Denver's Invesco Field, Nielsen Co. reported today.(...)
Overall, the convention drew an average of 30 million viewers a night, about 10 million more than the 2004 Democratic convention, Nielsen reported.Nielsen tracked viewers watching NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, BET and TV One.
PBS was not included in the Nielsen ratings but it released a statement early Friday that public broadcasting stations attracted about 3.5 million viewers Thursday night with an average of 3 million throughout the convention.
Right now, the Palin pick is the big story online, and also probably on both television and radio. However, Obama's speech has received enough coverage that people will be able to compare the two side by side. I think it is pretty safe to say that Obama will look pretty good in that comparison. My bet is that this allows him to maintain his new lead at least through Monday. Of course, only time, and new polling, will tell for certain.
Nielsen Media Research said more people watched Obama speak than watched the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, the final "American Idol" or the Academy Awards this year. Obama talked before a live audience of 80,000 people in Denver.
Can't get much bigger than that. Hard to see how a truly bizarre move by McCain will look good by comparison.
The tracking polls for Friday are out, and they both show a pretty significant bounce for Obama. Here are the numbers, with the final, pre-convention polls (August 23rd-25th) in parenthesis:
There is a clear Obama bounce in these polls. Still, it is important to remember that these polls were conducted from August 26-August 28th. As such, very few of these interviews, if any, include responses to Obama's speech last night. All interviews were conducted after Michelle Obama's speech. About 70% include Hillary Clinton's speech, and another 35% include Bill Clinton and Joe Biden. There won't be complete post-convention polling available until Monday's tracking polls are released, and no interviews for those tracking polls have currently been conducted.
Tomorrow's tracking polls will be the first to include both post-Obama acceptance speech and post-Palin announcement. As such, they should be extremely interesting. I actually don't expect much of a further increase for Obama, since the Tuesday numbers in these polls were both excellent for him. It will be hard to improve upon those numbers today, especially given how the Palin choice is taking a lot of coverage.
This will be a very, very interesting weekend of polling. We will have a good idea about the effectiveness, or lack thereof, of the Palin choice and the Obama speech on Monday.
Loved the setting-the move to Invesco provided an increased sense of spectacle to a type of speech that really is, in many ways, about spectacle.
Thought the introductory video was fantastic. It was as good as Gore's back in 2000, and I really loved that one.
Like the contrast bits with McCain quite a bit. It was an assertive speech that engaged in some strong attacks on McCain.
The brief ideological bit about Republicans putting people "on their own" was excellent. I wish there had been both more of that, and a clearer articulation of the contrasting ideology.
Much of the end of the speech sounded defensive. From finding common ground, to defending patriotism, to decrying character attacks, to not being the typical candidate--I didn't feel comfortable during that part of the speech. Answering attackers when the night is entirely focused on you both accepts the premise of their attacks and gives them free air time. Wish there had been quite a bit less of that.
Overall, I think it should be a decent bump. That isn't much of a prediction, since the tracking polls are already indicating a decent bump. But, that is where I am feeling--decent, but not huge. At the least, it is better than I felt after 2004. How are you feeling?
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