If you wanted to register to vote today, would you be able to provide a copy of a birth certificate, U.S. passport or naturalization papers? Would those documents reflect your current name?
Final election results from the 2008 presidential election reveal that voter turnout was at the "highest level in 40 years." However, the biggest gain cannot just be seen in overall turnout. As Project Vote assessed in a recent report on 2008 voter demographics - now confirmed by other sources - the biggest gain was among minority and young voters. This success signifies a shift towards a more balanced electorate, and may herald election reforms to expand early voting and voter registration opportunities.
Following one of the most momentous elections in the nation's history, officials and advocates across the country are already turning their attention to the future of American democracy. After a grueling battle over voter registration, voter roll maintenance, and ballot access for the ever growing electorate, leaders and advocates are evaluating what worked this year and considering major administrative and legislative overhauls before coming elections.
Obama has inched up in the tracking polls for the third straight day, and he now leads by 6% according to Pollster.com with less than 77 hours before the polls close in all swing states. (Iowa is the last "swing state" to close, if you can call Iowa a swing state, anyway. Part of Montana closes at 11:00 p.m. eastern). So, McCain has to gain a full 1% on Obama every thirteen hours between now and then in order to win. That means that McCain has to flip about 100,000 voters every hour, or three every second, in order to tie Obama. Best of all, he can only target 70% of the electorate for these votes, because 30% is already spoken for.
Should I tease with a long drawn out intro? Nahhhh. Based on spreadsheets sent to me directly by John Lindback, Oregon's Director of Elections, here is a graph of the ballot returns so far, broken by party affiliation:
In the last two weeks voter registration and early voting has shown that voters are geared up and ready to take part in what has been called a "historical event" on November 4.
Barack Obama has won the 2008 Presidential Election.
Yes, you read that right. And no, I am not joking.
People will probably say that I am calling the election too early, which could depress turnout. People might say that I am taking too much for granted, which is especially bad for a committeeperson in West Philadelphia. People might say that I am simply being foolish, because there is time left and a lot can change in four days. For these people, I have five quick points (more in the extended entry).
I've been reading a lot of hype around the Democratic advantage or disadvantage in early voting. While I understand that Democratic voters seem to be out-polling their counterparts in many States, I'm not really sure what to make of it. In this short diary, I would like to float a possible explanation for why these early voting stats don't really tell us much in hopes that someone will respond to tell me why I'm wrong.
Back in September, I did a study ranking the number of registered voters per early voting site for each county in Florida in which I found that Pinellas County came in dead last.
As it turns out, this isn't the only problem with Deborah Clark's record as Supervisor of Elections in Pinellas County.
This morning I'm driving my wife over to the Charles Town (WV) Courthouse so she can cast her early vote for Obama. My son and I have been over there to vote already, but this is the first opportunity Elly has had outside of her teaching schedule. The fact that West Virginia has early voting is something we are very happy about... it gives us a chance to put in some campaign time on election day supporting others in getting out the Obama vote.
I just whipped up my best estimates for current results in seven key states where early voting is well under way:
Early Return Estimates From Key States
State
Reporting
Obama %
McCain %
Colorado
16%
49.2%
49.8%
Florida
11%
45.2%
51.2%
Georgia
23%
46.7%
52.2%
Iowa
12%
64.1%
35.4%
New Mexcio
28%
53.7%
46.1%
N Carolina
20%
55.4%
44.1%
Ohio
??%
60.5%
38.7%
I arrived at these numbers as follows:
Information gathered from news articles here and here, plus quick hits here and here.
Estimated turnout percentage = ((total number of votes cast in 2008) / (total number of vast cast in 2004 * 1.1)). I am assuming a 10% increase in total turnout. It probably won't be that high, but at least I am not over-estimating the percentage of votes cast so far.
I multiplied the current partisan breakdown of returns according to how they broke according to 2004 exit polls. For example, in 2004, Kerry won 93% of the vote among Colorado Democrats, so I am assuming Obama will so the same.
In Georgia, I multiplied numbers according to racial breakdown. Everywhere else, it was according to partisan breakdown.
These numbers tell me that things are going OK, but that the campaign is far from won. In particular, Colorado stands out as problematic, since McCain still holds a very slight lead there according to these estimates. Obama only leads in two "victory states," North Carolina and Ohio. I think we should all consider victory in either of those states to be very dicey, especially North Carolina. And I doubt anyone would be happy about the election coming down to Ohio.
One positive is that there are no numbers from Virginia, as I believe there is no partisan registration in the state. If Obama is winning there, then his clearly advantages in Iowa and New Mexico give him a relatively easy path to the White House. However, there is no information from Virginia right now that I know of, so that is purely speculation, nothing more.
Update: Florida numbers were reversed, I fixed them now. Obama is gaining fast in the state, but I estimate that he still trails by about 55,000 votes. Also, Obama could win Georgia if he wins African-Americans by a net 92% (say, 96%-4% or 95%-3%), and if turnout remains at current levels (roughly 36% of the electorate as African-American). The former seems doable. The latter, however, would be the greatest turnout surge I have ever seen, since African-Americans normally make up 28-29% of the Georgia electorate.
Update 2: Yes, I am counting absentee ballots requested, but not returned, in Florida. I know that tilts things toward McCain, but I feel it is the safest, most conservative estimate to make.
Here are three things that have been true in the past and may or may not be true in 2008:
1. The Presidential race will narrow as election day approaches
2. When we get closer to election day it is better to look at likely voters than to look at registered voters
3. Exit polls are biased in favor of Democrats
Generally speaking, among all the possible predictors of the future, the best predictor is the immediate past. Given the three items listed above, you may have heard 1) that Barack Obama's lead over McCain is likely to narrow because narrowing occurred in 2000 and 2004 and razor thin election day results followed and 2) we should start looking at likely voter polls rather than registered voter polls. Also, since recent exit polling has been overly optimistic for Democrats you might assume that whatever exit poll leaks you read about on Nov. 4 will need to be adjusted downward for Dems.
I propose that past is not always prologue. In particular I think 2008 is very different from 2000 and 2004 and I'll offer my opinions on the three areas after the jump.
Folks, it's VERY late in the game. Voting actually begins October 1st! We on the Left need to get with the program and realize that we don't have an "election day" in the US, when half the states begin voting in earnest on October First!!!
The convenience of absentee balloting is a double edged sword in the world of elections for its positive reception by voters, but negative effect on accurate and legitimate ballot counting, an issue that recently cropped up in Ohio, raising concerns for the 2008 election.
