The Illinois Senate primary is tonight. Polls close at 7 p.m. central time (8 p.m. eastern, 5 p.m. pacific). There are a lot of races taking place but, as a D.C. focused blogger, I will only be providing updates on the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Check out Swing State Project and Archpundit for the nitty gritty on the other campaigns.
Vote margin: Giannoulias +34,822 (going up--this is over. No further updates.)
Update (9:12 eastern)--Looking like Giannoulias: Smart observation from alex in the comments:
it's hard to see a path for victory for Hoffman. He's not doing well enough in the collar counties to offset Chicago city and he's doing mostly poorly outside of Chicagoland at the moment.
Hoffman isn't strong enough in the city of Chicago to stage a comeback there. His weakness among African-Americans, and downstate, appears ready to sink him.
Very worried about Giannoulias making himself, and the party, look bad with his banking ties. He may be the more lefty than Hoffman, but I can't say I was pulling for him tonight. Ties to a banking scandal are just terrible right now.
Update 2--A look at the Illinois 10th. Worth noting, from minvis in the comments:
But the House 10th District is shaping up to be a good chance at a pickup for the Democrats. This is Kirk's old House seat. The moderate Republican, Elizabeth Coulson, is losing substantially to a more conservative Republican. This is a slightly Democratic leaning district nationally. It voted for Gore, Kerry and Obama the last 3 presidential elections. Whoever wins the Democratic race, Seals is leading slightly right now, will more closely align with the electorate there than a right-wing Republican.
Good note. Too add, IL-10 actually isn't slightly lean Democratic--it is D+6 in Cook PVI, which makes it roughly 12 points more favorable to Democrats than the national picture. It is the second most Democratic district in the country held by a Republican (Delaware at-large is #1 in this category).
Follow the results of the House race here. I am a little dubious about Seals--pretty sure he isn't particularly progressive. This is also his third run, and he failed to take the seat during two very Democratic years. On the other hand, I know nothing about Julie Hamos, his main opponent.
With 4 precincts left to report, Seals leads by 662 votes. Looks like Seals eeked it out.
update 3--Hamos appears to be Jan Schakowsky protege. Multiple commenters are now reporting that Hamos is a protege of Jan Schakowsky. That sounds pretty good to me.
If Hamos is great, and if she doesn't pull this out, it feels like a lost opportunity for a progressive pickup. Terrible mistake on my part--should have done my research and gotten involved.
Update 4--Mark Kirk crushes tea party challengers in Republican Senate primary: To no one's surprise, Mark Kirk cruises to victory in the Republican Senate primary. He currently has 56% of the vote, and only 19% for the closest challenger.
Update 5--I am calling it for Giannoulias: Giannoulias is going to be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois. Hopefully, his scandals will stay local, and he will find a way to beat Kirk despite them. He leads in the polls right now, but keep an eye on this campaign. Could get very dicey.
No further updates tonight. This is an open thread on the Illinois primary.
Bangor Daily News has the map of the vote percentages on Question 1 in Maine:
Snapshot... a much closer view can be found here. Pink and dark pink are good, green and dark green are bad.
I don't want to get into the official numbers by town and precinct again from election night, but to paint a broader picture.
As you look at the map, our numbers got worse as the population got smaller, excluding the heavily Catholic Lewiston-Auburn area, one of the largest metropolitan areas in Maine, which voted 59% and 54% respectively against marriage equality. Mike Lux asked me what the campaign did to organize in small towns. Mike, as many of you know, did VISTA organizing in rural Nebraska and worked in smaller areas all over Iowa, so he really has a bead on these things. In truth the campaign did a great deal to organize in smaller towns, but there is one tactic no political campaign can fully execute with money or resources or organizing. Part of the reason these small towns are so hardcore against marriage equality, Mike noted, is because in many of these communities, there are no gay people, or if there are, they are usually closeted. To some extent, no amount of TV advertising or direct mail or surrogate work will work as well as person-to-person communication with gay people in your community. The other item that helps, too, is religious outreach, which is where I saw a lot of external organizing going on- not just in liberal areas like Portland, but all over the state.
But I'm most interested in the gay neighbor aspect. In 1978, Harvey Milk played a major role in defeating the Briggs Initiative in California, which would have banned gays and lesbians from working in public schools. What he used as perhaps his most central organizing tactic was getting people to come out of the closet, to demonstrate that this gay person is your beloved schoolteacher or principal or aide, and thus move voters in a very personal way to vote no. This was also what made the Elephant Walk Bar at the corner of 18th and Castro so revolutionary- it was one of the first bars to have broad, open windows where passers-by could look in on the patrons, in 1974, where most or all of the bars had no windows and patrons went in secret. If you wanted to go, you had to essentially commit to being more out of the closet to the community.
We won that campaign with 58% of the vote, and a famous speech Milk gave during it is instructive today:
On this anniversary of Stonewall, I ask my gay sisters and brothers to make the commitment to fight. For themselves, for their freedom, for their country ... We will not win our rights by staying quietly in our closets ... We are coming out to fight the lies, the myths, the distortions. We are coming out to tell the truths about gays, for I am tired of the conspiracy of silence, so I'm going to talk about it. And I want you to talk about it. You must come out. Come out to your parents, your relatives.
The same tactic Milk used for school employees everywhere must continue to be used in these communities. We have to encourage people in these towns to come out of the closet and say they want the right to marry. State Representative Mike Carey, who represents heavily Catholic downtown Lewiston and voted in favor of marriage equality in the legislature, pointed out to me that in these kinds of votes, the default vote is for fear, and it is a huge barrier to reach one's conscience if they have no personal knowledge of the issue. For all the "gay marriage will be taught in schools" ads our opponents ran in Maine and will run in other states that tap that fear element, we have to counter with people who can give voters that kind of personal touch on the issue.
Creigh Deeds on October 20: I'm against the public option.
Voters on November 3: We're against you.
That's an oversimplification, but not by much. Here's some data:
In the eight October polls taken before Deeds' comments about the public option he trailed Bob McDonnell by 11 points with 8 percent of voters undecided. Deeds' support was at 40.25 percent in those polls
In the 11 polls taken after Deeds' comments he trailed McDonnell by 14.3 with 4.5 percent undecided. Deeds' support was at 40.7 percent in those polls.
On election day, with no more undecided voters, Deeds lost by 17 percent. He won 41.2 percent of voters.
Summary: In the aftermath of Deeds' comments on the public option, his support, even as undecided voters finally decided, never really climbed. Either a lot of Democrats stayed home or the vast majority of undecided voters broke for McDonnell.
There are plenty of Democrats in Virginia these days. President Obama won the state by a margin of more than six percent. Recent Democratic Governors include Tim Kaine and Mark Warner. Both Senators are Democrats. But you have to get them to show up and you have to give them reason to be excited about your campaign. Also, when a policy is very popular and will actually help people in a time of great need, you should probably not oppose that policy. Just a thought.
U.S. stocks were poised to open higher Wednesday, as Wall Street cheered a number of Republican election wins ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting decision.
And later in the story:
But positive market momentum appeared as investors were encouraged by several Republicans victories, including the governor races in both New Jersey and Virginia.
More broadly, the wins reflect a sharp rebuke by Americans of current policies in Washington, including massive spending programs that have helped grow the federal deficit.
"The election results suggest that perhaps the referendum of the Democratic Party, more specifically President Obama, is being challenged in the marketplace," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.
So the stock market, which has been going mostly up for 8 months (apparently cheering uh...something), is set to go up some more this morning. And this is proof that investors are happy about the races for Governor in NJ and Virginia. Nevermind that a lot of investors, like Warren Buffet, George Soros, etc. are Democrats, apparently it is just a given that:
1. Investors are Republicans
2. Happy political results for Republicans = market goes up
Of course the market has been going up and down for the last month. I guess that's because, on some days, Republicans are feeling happy and confident and on other days they are feeling sad.
Obviously this is just as ridiculous as the "markets hate Obama" meme from last February which mysteriously faded away when the markets began moving upward. Amazingly this story is not posted as an editorial but asa front page story on CNN Money.
Anyway, even if you accept the premise, what does that say about the markets? "We like it when Democrats lose because then the gap between the rich and poor widens and we can buy another chateau."
California Democratic Lt. Governor John Garamendi has been declared the winner in the CA-10 special election. Garamendi will be more progressive than Tauscher, who was the chair of the New Dems when she was in Congress.
So that's two nice upgrades in the House (from McHugh to Owens, and from Tauscher to Garamendi).
Democrats now have 258 seats in the House, up from 257. Whenever a party gains seats in congress, the voters simply are not rebuking that party. With the teabagger vanquished and an upgrade from Tauscher, that is a pretty solid night in the House.
Both Owens and Garamendi will be sworn in before the weekend vote in the House on health care reform. The Committee on Rules in the House posted the bill tonight, which paves the way for a vote in as little as 72 hours. No word yet on amendments, but more on that tomorrow.
Corzine is a real loss, given how few progressives are also Governors. However, with the economy in its current state, it is a difficult time to be an incumbent party.
Maine, as Adam describes below, is looking bleak. Enough to make your blood boil. The only bright side I can offer is that, once again, we are getting closer to winning these elections. Also, once again, we probably won them among voters under the age of 65.
If Democrats--whether Progressive, New Dem or Blue Dog--are going to succeed in 2010, then the objective economic conditions people face in their daily lives have to improve. It is only through a positive turnaround in the daily lives of average Americans that Democrats will continue to gain seats next year.
Update 48: This'll be the final update for the night. Things are, to put it plainly, looking slim. We are in a deep hole by several points, at close to 90% reporting, and most of the rest of the votes yet to come in are from Yes areas. The yes votes started to report and dragged our totals down.
The campaign will be evaluating the race tomorrow and possibly after the absentee votes come in.
I don't really have much else to say except this one hurts, in my gut, a lot.
Update 47: The No On 1 campaign manager, Jesse Connolly, just went down with us to the ballroom and announced that the race is too close to call and they are still counting. The counting could continue well into the morning. There will be no concession or declaration of victory, it appears, tonight. Things are extremely tight and no news media so far has called the race either.
I'm going to take a step away from my laptop and will probably post a final update before going to bed tonight.
Update 46: I spoke with Kate Knox, the campaign's legal counsel. Here is how the recount procedure works:
The campaign has to wait for certification from the Sec of State, which will happen after all absentee ballots come in. In Maine, there is a no-excuse absentee ballot law and she expects there to be a "significant" number of absentees.
The certification takes a maximum of 20 days but is almost always done before then. The campaign has to collect 100 signatures and pay a nominal fee (ranging from a few hundred bucks to $10K but more likely to be a few hundred) depending on how close the vote is.
The recount is statewide, all or nothing. Not challenging individual precincts.
Based on past experience, the recount will take at least a few weeks and likely longer than that.
Update 45: The campaign is now directing staff to call town clerks to get final numbers in and look at our expected numbers there versus what they're reporting. A lot of this leads up to a potential recount if the numbers are way off, but there are still a lot of numbers waiting to come in.
Update 44: Based on what we have and what other news outlets are reporting, now over 60% of precincts are in, including a lot of more rural places, and it's looking like 51-49% against us.
Update 43: After talking with some people here, based on projections from the campaign and looking at the rural numbers starting to trickle in, there is a very, very good chance of a recount, and we're making preparations for that.
Update 42: In Westbrook, a suburb of Portland immediately west, we won 55-45%. It's a big mill town.
Update 41: Let me emphasize for those who are seeing numbers elsewhere- we're at 57% after our more base targets that have nearly all come in- not overall. Overall I can't talk about in detail but they are better for us than 50/50. The rural numbers are starting to come in, though.
Update 40: Places like Brewer went against us, 42-58%- those numbers are starting to come in and pull us down.
Update 39: WMTW-8 TV is reporting 24% of precincts in and deadlocked at 50-50%, 65,452 No, 64,467 Yes. We believe those don't include the Portland absentees yet though, and they lag behind our reporting numbers.
Update 38: TABOR was also on the ballot, and it went down to defeat. Great news.
Update 37: Lull in reporting. For earlier numbers from the night from my first thread, click here.
Update 36: I now have city of Portland absentee numbers: 6,291 No to 1,762 Yes. That's 78%-22% for us. That's freaking incredibly good. That moves the overall city of Portland numbers to 73%-27% for us.
Update 35: We won Auburn 51.5-48.5%! That's part of the Lewiston-Auburn metro area, heavily Catholic. Vastly different than Lewiston which we lost 60-40%.
Update 34: General update- most of our base vote cities/towns are in, and we're at 57% overall in our targets. It's a good number. We're waiting for more rural parts of the state e.g. Region 4 to come in and a little of 3. See my earlier thread for an explanation of the Regions.
Update 33: OVERALL numbers in so far: 57% No, 43% Yes.
Update 32: Won the town of Waterville 54-46%. It's 15 minute north of Augusta.
Update 31: York, ME, one of our base vote places, is 63-37%- very good.
Update 30: We won the town of Gorham, 64-36%, which is great news.
Update 29: Some video from the stage at the party downstairs- Jesse Connolly, Rep. Chellie Pingree, Gov. Baldacci, Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree, Senate President Libby Mitchell. Go here to view.
Update 28: Final % in from the city of Portland itself, largest city in the state and a heavy base vote area- No 71%, Yes 29%, without absentees.
Update 27: We lost the state capitol of Augusta, 47-53%. Not good.
Update 26: I can't write overall aggregate numbers, but we are doing well. There are 82 precincts in overall, and we are looking at key areas to be able to project.
Update 25: We won the city of South Portland 64-36%!
Update 13--Republican civil war to get bloodier: While I would much rather have had Corzine, and while I am still nervous about Maine, this win by Owens will cause even more damage in the ongoing Republican civil war. Owens won because he was endorsed by Scozzafava, who was herself torpedoed by most of the Republican establishment. Lots of finger pointing, and no clear result. This is going to get even bloodier.
Update 12--Owens wins: All national networks call it for Owens. With the remaining precincts, and the newly discovered lack of absentee votes, it makes sense. I have to admit, I am very surprised. Owens better fall in line on health care reform immediately.
Update 11: With 79 precincts left to report, 41 are from St. Lawrence (Owens), 14 from Lewis (Hoffman), 4 from Franklin (Owens), 3 from Madison (Hoffman) and 1 from Jefferson (Hoffman). That's 45-18 Owens, with 18 unaccounted for.
Update 10--Less than 10,000 absentees: From xtrarich in the comments:
There were more than 10,000 absentee votes sent out before the election and some 5,800 were returned and must be counted. More absentee ballots, if sent before the deadline, could still be received.
Many of these ballots have already been counted. Less than 2,000 Fort Drum military ballots. That is another good sign for Owens.
Update 9--Military absentees will skew toward Scozzafava: As lord_mike notes in the comments, keep in mind that Scozzafava was still in the race before absentee ballots were sent in. As such, those ballots will not necessarily favor Hoffman.
Update 8--Owens will be ahead after tonight: Owens will be ahead after tonight, even with 4 precincts from St. Lawrence county not likely to report until tomorrow due to voting machine problems. The question is how far ahead he will be before the 10,000 absentees are counted. Right now, his margin is 4,175 votes, which would be enough.
Update 7--Remaining Precincts: There are 91 precincts left to report. This includes 46 St. Lawrence county (Owens), 15 in Lewis (Hoffman), 3 left in Madison (Hoffman), 1 left in Jefferson (Owens), and 3 left to report in Franklin (Owens). There are also about 20-23 from other counties, but their websites are down. That is 50-18 Owens, meaning that it still looks good for him as long as the absentees aren't a landslide.
There are more than 10,000 absentee votes to still be counted.
Turnout so far is just under 120,000.
With Fort Drum in the district--the only place in the country where snow-based training for Afghanistan occurs--this is an extremely heavy military district. Those absentees will send this contest into overtime.
Update 5--Now Highly likely Owens will win: This is going to upset a lot of teabaggers, but it is now highly likely that Owens will win. 52 of the remaining 153 precincts are from St Lawrence county, which Obama won by 16%.
Update 4--County level results: You can see the county results here.
Update 3--Albany Project calls it for Owens (with about 70% in): The Albany Project has called it for Owens, based on many of the remaining votes coming from Democratic St Lawrence county.
Update 2 (with about 31% in): It turns out that most of these results are from Clinton county, which is the most Democratic part of the district. Expect Hoffman to close, and possibly take the lead, before long.
Update: For some context, there are three very Democratic counties (as least as far as Presidential voting is concerned) in the northern part of the district, two lean Republican counties in the western part, and a very Republican county in the southern part. I have no idea which of these have reported so far. If these numbers are from the Democratic areas, it probably won't be enough for Owens to win.
Update 10--Christie wins: Damn it, damn it, damn it. AP calls it for Christie. Don't expect the projection to be reversed, given what I am hearing behind the scenes. It's over.
Update 9--Starting to get dire: I am feeling less and less confident here. The projections don't look great at this point.
Update 8--4 big Democratic towns left to report: From a source, there are four big Democratic towns left to report in New Jersey. Still, going to be difficult.
Update 7--Corzine will get closer: Given the areas that have yet to report, Corzine should end up with between 45-48% of the vote, per 538 on twitter. Given that the total Independent vote looks to be around 6%, 48% would win, and 47% is probably recount territory. Expect a long night.
Update 6--site update: Stripped out some of the content in the left hand columns. Open Left is loading much faster now.
Update 5--exit poll toplines show 1% race: According to Josh at TPM, the exit polls show Corzine and Christie within one point of each other. This may very well be the nail biter the polls had predicted. The early results are from Republican-leaning areas.
Update 4: Real results coming in now.
Update 3: The early results are not from any precinct. Must be early voting of some kind.
Update 2: Early exit poll data indicate that Daggett supporters may have moved hard toward Christie toward the end:
In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie took 58 percent of the independent vote, according to early CNN Exit Poll data. Incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, took just 33 percent of the independent vote. Independents made up 27 percent of the voters in New Jersey race.
With Daggett only receiving 9% of the Independent vote, a late exodus of Daggett supporters to Christie may spell real trouble for Corzine. Damn it.
Update 1: On the plus side, AP says the campaign is too close to call.
Update 24: I'm going to start a new update thread and put some of the ones from earlier in the night in the extended entry in this thread.
Update 23: We won Bangor, 54-46%, third largest city in Maine.
Update 22: Campaign manager Jesse Connolly is live now on Maddow (9:19 PM).
Update 21: Let me do an overall roundup- we are getting the base vote numbers in that we need from Portland, its suburbs, and the college areas of Orono and Farmington. Bad news so far is losing Lewiston 60-40%, but not horrible. Still waiting on a lot of Region 1 precincts- where our other base votes are- and rural areas.
Update 20: State Representative Mike Casey, who represents downtown Lewiston, just sent me final total numbers- we lost 60-40%. The final reporting turned the tide. Again, that's a heavily Catholic area, but the percentages aren't great.
Update 19: Final numbers are in from UM-Orono campus- 81% No, 19% yes. In town of Orono itself, we won 73-27%.
Update 18: We won Kennebunkport, home of the Bushes, 61-39%.
Update 17: We won Bar Harbor, a town in "downeast" Maine- very small coastal town- 71-29%!
Update 16: We won Yarmouth, another suburb north of here, 66-34%.
Update 15: A huge cheer just went up in the room- we won Brunswick, a coastal town 20 minutes north of Portland with Bowdoin College in it, 63-37%. What we're looking for.
Update 14: Marc Mutty is live on the local news talking about the silent majority coming out. Right.
Update 13: I just took a look at all the final numbers in from every Portland precinct. Portland is the largest city in the state. We're winning each precinct by a touchdown or two. Portland is the uber-base of base precincts in the state, and we needed to do huge there, and we have. Mid-70s and mid-80s in terms of % No votes which is great in many places.
This is a thread for election results from Maine. I will be updating this thread from the boiler room headquarters as numbers come in. You can also follow updates on my Twitter feed. The earlier updates from the night are in the extended entry.
With Missouri and Nebraska-02 seemingly going to McCain, it seems the final electoral count will by Obama 364--174 McCain. Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. When looking to stretch the map, Indiana and North Carolina are the big prizes.
In the Senate, Democrats have 54 seats, plus Bernie Sanders, with four campaigns (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon) still undecided. We need three of the four to win the Employee Free Choice Act. One or two will probably be enough to pass Obama's legislation. There is still a lot of fighting to be done in the Senate. Expect a recount in more than one of these states.
In the House, we are at 258 seats, with AK-AL, CA-04, ID-01, NJ-03, WA-08 and, maybe, OH-15 still undecided. We seem on course to hit 260 exactly, as per my final House forecast. Also, something is fishy in Alaska, with the Alaska House and Senate races both far outperforming their polling.
Among Better Democrats, Alan Grayson, Eric Massa, Joshua Segall, Tom Perriello, and Gary Peters have all won. Plus, Jim Martin, Al Franken, Mark Begich, Jeff Merkley and Darcy Burner are still in close campaigns. With only five losses so far, that is a very high winning percentage for an all-challenger page. We even scored the night's biggest Democratic upset in Perriello, plus Florida trend-buster Alan Grayson (the only Florida Democratic challenger to win). Both are hard proof that progressive campaigns can succeed, even in red districts.
When it comes to my forecasts, I'm telling you--if it weren't for those pesky kids in Indiana, I'd be on pace for a Mac Book in the Daily Kos contest. Without Obama's victory in Indiana, I would still be 100% tonight, across all Presidential, Senate and House campaigns. I had Obama at 353 (I only changed my final NC forecast after the contest deadline), Democrats at 260 House seats, and 57-40-2 in the Senate with a run-off in Georgia. Not to toot my own horn, but I'm getting good at this election forecasting thing. It is certainly lucky to find unexpected talents later in life.
All around, an excellent night. This is an omnibus thread for all remaining results. Broader, deeper thoughts, along with the path forward, coming later. For now, go Darcy!
Tight (Within 5%): CA-04 (Brown down 451 votes with 100% reporting--no word on provisionals/absentees), WA-08 (Burner down 900 votes with 41% reporting)
Democratic seats: 54
Republican seats: 40
Independent seats: 2
Undecided: 4
Pickups: Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia
Update 10: All four Better Democrats in the Senate are down to the wire. Crazy.
Update 9: Oregon back to undecided. And what's up with Alaska? Two Republican shocks seem imminent in what is otherwise a heavy Democratic night. Seems fishy. In Minnesota, Franken leads by 2,300 votes. In Georgia, it could be a recount to secure the run-off.
Update 8: Merkley wins Oregon: A little belated, but Oregon's premier political analyst has called the race for Merkley.
Update 7: Franken takes the lead: Franken now leads by 1,350 votes or so. Still, get ready for a recount.
Update 6: Minnesota margin now 1,465 votes: Get ready for a recount in Minnesota.
Update 5: Franken within less than 200 votes: Huge nailbiter in Minnesota. Too bad there is no run-off.
Update 4: Alaska in play? No word on which counties have reported, but Stevens is winning in Alaska with 37% reporting. This could be the shocker of the night, after Obama winning Indiana.
Update 3: Merkley will win: While the networks haven't called it yet, Merkley is going to win. The red counties have all reported. The remaining vote is from Eugene and Portland. Game over.
Update 2: Hagan wins North Carolina!: Make that six Senate pickups for Democrats.
Update 1: Shaeen wins New Hampshire: Mark a fifth pickup down for Democrats.
National Popular Vote (122M votes in): Obama 52%-47% McCain
Electoral College
Obama 364, McCain 162, Too Close to Call 12
Swing State Returns All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.
State
Reporting
Obama%
McCain%
EVs
Missouri
99%
49%
50%
11
NE-02
100%
49%
50%
1
Update 4: McCain narrowly leads in NE-02 with 100% reporting, but it finishes close enough for a recount. Will the Obama campaign seek one? I'll keep in undecided until we hear final word.
Update 3: I'm calling Montana for McCain, based on exit polls showing him ahead and the counties with 0% reporting. This is the final presidential update for the night. Your total: Obama 364, McCain 163, recount 11 (Missouri).
Update 2: Missouri will be listed as too close to call for the rest of the night. We shall see where it is in the morning.
Update: Obama wins Indiana. The source on the projection is me, myself and I. The remaining precincts in Indiana are not enough for McCain to pull it off. This will cost me a Mac Book over at Daily Kos (I was perfect up till now, because last night when I entered I still had NC for Obama), but that's OK. A Mac Book is nothing compared to the work of the Indiana volunteers.
National Popular Vote (98M votes in): Obama 51%-48% McCain
Electoral College
Obama 353--160 McCain
Swing State Returns All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.
State
Reporting
Obama%
McCain%
EVs
Indiana
97%
50%
49%
11
Missouri
86%
48%
50%
11
Montana
34%
51%
46%
3
Update 6: Pile it on: Obama on the way to Indiana, Montana and possibly more landslide. I haven't got any states wrong yet, but I wouldn't mind on Indiana, Missouri, Montana or North Carolina.
Update 5: Obama wins Virginia: Obama takes the lead in Virginia, and Virginia expert Not Larry Sabato calls the state. Good enough for me. Indiana is next.
Update 4: Obama wins Colorado: Obama hits 293, passes, Bush's EV best. Florida and Virginia soon...
Update 3: OBAMA WINS PRESIDENCY: As per the update above, Obama wins Ohio and, therefore, the Presidency. Further, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and maybe even Indiana and North Carolina to become blue.
Update 1: McCain wins North Dakota: Darn. Didn't think it would happen. On the plus side, South Dakota and Louisiana is too close to call. In fact, so is NE-02.
Update 4: Cities tend to report late: Remember, outside of Pennsylvania, cities tend to report last. So, even though Obama is trailing in some of these early returns, his big precincts haven't come in yet.
Update 3: North Carolina exit poll: Obama leading in the North Carolina exit poll 51.4%-47.6% according to the gender crosstabs. All of these exit poll estimates are according to the exit polls crosstabs, btw.
Update 2: Some exit polls: Exit polls for Georgia (McCain winning by 2%), Indiana (Obama winning by 6%), and Virginia (Obama winning by 9%).
Update 1: On The Early Calls: As I wrote earlier today, twice, I am calling all states that were more than 10% in the polls before the election. No state polling will be wrong by that much. It ain't gonna happen. I stand by my early calls. It starts 243-132.
I just whipped up my best estimates for current results in seven key states where early voting is well under way:
Early Return Estimates From Key States
State
Reporting
Obama %
McCain %
Colorado
16%
49.2%
49.8%
Florida
11%
45.2%
51.2%
Georgia
23%
46.7%
52.2%
Iowa
12%
64.1%
35.4%
New Mexcio
28%
53.7%
46.1%
N Carolina
20%
55.4%
44.1%
Ohio
??%
60.5%
38.7%
I arrived at these numbers as follows:
Information gathered from news articles here and here, plus quick hits here and here.
Estimated turnout percentage = ((total number of votes cast in 2008) / (total number of vast cast in 2004 * 1.1)). I am assuming a 10% increase in total turnout. It probably won't be that high, but at least I am not over-estimating the percentage of votes cast so far.
I multiplied the current partisan breakdown of returns according to how they broke according to 2004 exit polls. For example, in 2004, Kerry won 93% of the vote among Colorado Democrats, so I am assuming Obama will so the same.
In Georgia, I multiplied numbers according to racial breakdown. Everywhere else, it was according to partisan breakdown.
These numbers tell me that things are going OK, but that the campaign is far from won. In particular, Colorado stands out as problematic, since McCain still holds a very slight lead there according to these estimates. Obama only leads in two "victory states," North Carolina and Ohio. I think we should all consider victory in either of those states to be very dicey, especially North Carolina. And I doubt anyone would be happy about the election coming down to Ohio.
One positive is that there are no numbers from Virginia, as I believe there is no partisan registration in the state. If Obama is winning there, then his clearly advantages in Iowa and New Mexico give him a relatively easy path to the White House. However, there is no information from Virginia right now that I know of, so that is purely speculation, nothing more.
Update: Florida numbers were reversed, I fixed them now. Obama is gaining fast in the state, but I estimate that he still trails by about 55,000 votes. Also, Obama could win Georgia if he wins African-Americans by a net 92% (say, 96%-4% or 95%-3%), and if turnout remains at current levels (roughly 36% of the electorate as African-American). The former seems doable. The latter, however, would be the greatest turnout surge I have ever seen, since African-Americans normally make up 28-29% of the Georgia electorate.
Update 2: Yes, I am counting absentee ballots requested, but not returned, in Florida. I know that tilts things toward McCain, but I feel it is the safest, most conservative estimate to make.
New Jersey Senate, 89% reporting
Lautenberg: 62%
Andrews: 32%
Cresitello: 6%
Update 13--Boswell wins IA-03: Leonard Boswell is finally declared the winner in the IA-03 Democratic primary. Looks like he will win by about 20%. While that isn't a total disaster, it also isn't the single-digit loss I was hoping for. He felt pressure, but will it be enough? Either way, progressives need to keep challenging.
Update 12--Wave of Superdelegates Endorses Obama: 26.5 superdelegates just endorsed Obama. He has now passed the magic number, even with Michigan and Florida given full voting rights, and even with her four delegates given back in Michigan. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.
Update 11 [from Matt]: Boswell is up by 12 points, it looks like he'll take it. That's an extremely tight margin for a primary.
Update 10--Obama wins Montana and national popular vote: In one positive development tonight, Barack Obama wins Montana big. The exit poll indicates it will be a huge victory, too: 55.7%--38.2%, according to the gender crosstabs. So, Obama will win the popular vote. Will he reach the 24,000 threshold that moves him outside the margin of error? Hopefully.
Update 9--Clinton doesn't conceede: Well, Clinton clearly didn't conceede in her speech. Hell, before her speech, McAuliffe introduced her as "the next President of hte United States of America." Then, in case the point hadn't been driven home, she said "I'm not deciding anything tonight." A lot of denail happening, but no concession or suspension. Perhaps one would have come if Obama had tried harder in South Dakota, and actually won the state. Then again, considering the way the Clinton campaign has acted for the last three months, probably not.
Update 8--Hey Obama, a 50-state strategy means campaign in all 50 states: I'm actually kind of angry at Obama for not campaigning harder in Montana and South Dakota. He could have won South if he made a bigger play for it. Also, even if he still lost, these are both important states for Democrats. If Obama had made a bigger push in Montana, he could have put the state in play in the general, and helped the local party solidfy its many recent gains downticket. If he campaigned harder in South Dakota, he could have helped build the party for 2010, when we can take down Thune. Pretty friggin' lame that he didn't campaign harder in those two states. Even though he won the nomination tonight, I'm not very happy with him right now. We need to campaign everywhere in order to build the party everywhere. Obama didn't do that in Montana and South Dakota.
Update 7--Clinton wins South Dakota: Hillary Clinton has won South Dakota. It is really, really important for Obama to win Montana now. Winning the nomination on a night of a double loss would be terrible, especially since he has only won Guam, Oregon, and North Carolina since March. If Obama doesn't win Montana by more than Clinton won South Dakota, Clinton can still win the popular vote, too. It would really suck to have a nominee who didn't win the popular vote.
Update 6--McCain at only 65% in South Dakota: Wow--McCain is only at 65% in South Dakota. That is pretty friggin' heinous. He hasn't had an opponent for three months.
Update 5--Exit poll indicates Clinton South Dakota victory: The South Dakota exit poll shows Clinton ahead 53.8%--46.2%, according to the gender crosstabs. Hopefully, Obama will win Montana by more than Clinton wins South Dakota. Not exactly the sort of result I would have hoped for the night Obama clinches.
Updte 4--Lautenberg crushes Andrews in New Jersey Senate primary: Frank Lautenberg comfortably defeats corproate challenger Rob Andrews in the New Jersey Seenate primary. With 17% reporting, Lautenberg leads by a 2-1 margin. Good. This result will now be moved to the bottom, and updates will be infrequent.
Update 3--Explaining my delegate math: Obama now has 360.5 superdelegates according to their last email on Bob Brady (the campaign just hasn't updated its results website yet). Democratic Convention Watch shows Obama at 1749.5 pledged delegates. Exit polls indicate at least exactly 7 delegates for Obama in South Dakota. With a magic number of 2,117 (not 2,118), Obama is now 0.0 delegates from the nomination. Or, at least he will be, when South Dakota polls close.
Update 2--Obama to win Democratic nomination at 9 p.m.: Rep. Bob Brady endroses Barack Obama, putting Obama over the top in my count. Preliminary exit polls from South Dakota indicate Clinton will receive less than 60% of the vote, meaning that Obama will win at least 7 delegates in the state. As such, Barack Obama will become the Democratic nominee when South Dakota polls close at 9 p.m..
Update--Obama's Victory Speech? Drudge has supposedly obtained a copy of Obama's victory speech. You can read it here.
Obama +75,900 votes
Clinton +250,000 votes in Kentucky
Clinton won Kentucky 37-14 (or maybe less, as the update indicates) in terms of delegates, which means that Obama is still 0.5 short of a non-Michigan and non-Florida pledged delegate victory. Oregon will put him over that mark. The non-Florida and Michigan 50% + 1 pledged delegate victory will have to wait until one of the following: more Edwards delegates flip, the May 31st meeting of the Rules and Bylaws committee, or Puerto Rico, on June 1st. By that time, enough superdelegates may have chosen Obama in order to declare overall victory.
Still, I think it is best for the Obama campaign not to declare victory until the night of June 3rd. That night, however, they should declare victory.
Update: I am now seeing three different Kentucky results: 37-14, 36-15, and 34-17 (my original estimate). Green Papers says 36-15 right now, so I am inclined to go with that estimate.
Update 2--Obama poised for large Oregon victory: Looking at the gender results from exit polls in Oregon indicate that Obama is headed to a 56%-42%, roughly.
Update 3--Obama declared winner in Oregon: MSNBC and CNN both call Oregon for Obama.
Update 4--Merkley wins Oregon Senate primary: Blue Oregon reports that local media have declared Merkley the winner in the Senate primary. The trend certainly seems to be heading in Merkley's direction.
Update 5--no more updates: I'm going to bed. An interesting night. This is now an open thread.
Update 2--Intermission time: I'll be back at 11 p.m. to report on Oregon. Nothing left to report from Kentucky, as Clinton's lead will grow from here on out. The delegate breakdown looks like 34-17, which means Obama needs to win Oregon 30-22 to reach the 47 number I described below. Also, Lunsford unfortunately appears headed to a 10% victory in the Senate primary.
Update--Lunsford ahead in Senate primary: With 23.8% reporting, Greg Lunsford leads Bruce Fisher in the Senate primary, 48.1%-38.4%.
Update--Clinton wins Kentucky: All news outlets have called Clinton the winner in Kentucky, now that all polls have closed. Most of the early returns are from Louisville, which is why it looks closer than expected right now. The exit poll suggests a final margin of around 65%-29%.
***
With 14.5 delegates tonight, Obama reaches 50%+1 of the pledged delegates determined by primaries and caucuses this year. With 47 delegates tonight, plus the 55 uncommitted delegates in Michigan, Obama will reach 50%+1 of all pledged delegates, including those in Michigan and Florida.
Oregon results won't start coming in until 11 p.m., eastern. The state will probably be called for Obama at that point, but it isn't a guarantee. As of this morning, Democratic turnout was already at 54%, and was expected to rise significantly throughout the day.
