Given the (far more vehement than I expected) discussion that seems to have sprung up from my post on the fifty-state strategy yesterday, I think a couple of points need to be made (more in the extended entry):
Another story we have been following on Open Left is the fate of the fifty-state strategy now that Howard Dean will no longer be DNC Chair. During the festivities here in D.C., I ran into a source close to the transition at the DNC who was able to provide an update on the new outlines of the DNC strategy, which does diverge from the current form of the fifty-state strategy in multiple ways:
Increasing Centralization: The shift in resources away from paid media and toward on the ground organizers will continue. However, these resources will be more directly controlled by the DNC itself, rather than by state parties. In other words, the SPP program where the DNC pays for organizers chosen by the state parties themselves is, as previously reported, done. Instead, the DNC will likely hire and assign organizers themselves. State party grants will also likely be transformed into more centrally directed expenditures by the DNC.
More swing state, less fifty-state: Many, if not most, states will have more resources spent on them during the next four years than during the previous four years. In addition to increasingly centralized control over how these resources are spent, there will also be a return to a swing-state focus for 2012. However, it is important to keep in mind that the Obama campaign's version of a swing state strategy was broader than either the Gore or Kerry incarnations.
In short, the DNC will be moving away from the long-term, decentralized, fifty-state strategy of Howard Dean's tenure, and toward serving as a short-term, centralized re-election effort for President Obama in 2012. It will continue the move away from paid media ushered in by Howard Dean, maintain or increase the amount of resource expenditures in most states, and the number of states it targets will be a broader effort than the narrow focus we saw in 2001-2004 (but more narrow than 2005-2008). However, it will return to the traditional role of the DNC as a supplement for the sitting President's re-election campaign, rather than as the long-term, localized institution building operation that is was from 2005-2008.
The fifty-state strategy of 2005-2008 is going to be replaced with the "re-elect President Obama" strategy of 2009-2012. Both have their advantages, but I still consider firing the 200 state party organizers a real blow to the long-term development of local Democratic Party talent and infrastructure.
So, the day after I break my left arm, Open Left crashes. Great. At least I'm getting all of 2009's bad luck out of the way early. Here are some items for Monday:
Beyond these articles, I don't know all that much about her, but anyone who can write this, in this unapologetic, euphemism-free and even impolitic tone, warning that the problem isn't merely John Yoo but Bush himself, repeatedly demanding "outrage," criticizing the Democratic Congress for legalizing Bush's surveillance program, arguing that we cannot merely "move on" if we are to restore our national honor, stating the OLC's "core job description" is to "say 'no' to the President," all while emphasizing that the danger is unchecked power not just for the Bush administration but "for years and administrations to come" -- and to do so in the middle of an election year when she knows she has a good chance to be appointed to a high-level position if the Democratic candidate won and yet nonetheless eschewed standard, obfuscating Beltway politesse about these matters -- is someone whose appointment to such an important post is almost certainly a positive sign. No praise is due Obama until he actually does things that merit praise, but it's hard not to consider this encouraging.
On December, Democrats extended their lead on Republicans in partisan self-identification to 8.7%, according to Rasmussen. That is our biggest lead since June, and bigger than any lead Democrats have held outside of the extended Clinton vs. Obama primary contest.
The Minnesota Supreme Court has rejected a key lawsuit from Norm Coleman, denying him his last chance to win. Franken will be declared the winner later today, but it still may take a while to get him into the Senate.
Tax cuts are being piled onto the stimulus in order to win Republican support. These cuts are now larger than Bush's, and are not just of the middle-class variety. Not good. We don't need Republican support, but Obama is seeking it anyway. My best guess is that this is a repeat of the Democratic leadership's strategy on the bailout. This way, Republicans won't be able to be able to say "I told you so" if it doesn't work, or if it becomes unpopular. Bad idea if you ask me, since we will be blamed if the country doesn't turn around, no matter what.
Or, maybe Obama considers bipartisanship good for its own sake, which would be sad.
Of course, all of this is overshadowed by the RNC, which for some reason still has over $59M in the bank. Either they were confused about when the election was taking place, or they simply decided to pass on this effort and save their resources for a later time.
The obvious move for the Obama campaign and Democratic Parties in this surprisingly cash-flush, post-election environment would be to re-hire the 200 state party organizers that form the core of the fifty-state strategy. Clearly, cost was not an issue in their termination, as the DNC and the Obama campaign combine for over $40M in the bank as of November 24th. The program was simply cut, and the fifty-state strategy appears to be in serious jeopardy.
Now, even in an economic downturn, this is actually not a bad time to be looking for work as a Democratic political professional. However, not everyone in politics wants to move to D.C. Some, myself included, enjoy being a political professional while living out here in the provinces. These state party jobs were not only key in building up Democratic parties around the country, but in supporting a broad, nationwide talent pool for Democratic organizers.
Ending the fifty-state strategy despite huge amount of cash on hand smacks of the Obama campaign's original decision to not use 527s during the general election. A few months later, the Obama campaign relented, and "called in the cavalry." So, this is at least the second instance where the Obama operation has decapitated an essential piece of progressive infrastructure. Hopefully, this will be the second time when they relent. The money is certainly available.
Over the last two weeks, I have written about how roughly 200 organizers whose salaries were paid for by the DNC, but who were chosen by, and embedded in, state Democratic parties, were laid off. These 200 organizers formed the bedrock of the fifty-state strategy, which was the cornerstone of Howard Dean's tenure as DNC chair. The fifty state strategy had the following basic differences from earlier DNC regimes:
Distribute national party funds evenly to states based on their size, rather than based on their value as swing states in presidential or congressional campaigns. This is designed to build up the party nationally and over the long-term, rather than on a temporary basis for each election.
Through direct grants to state parties, shift the location of party resources toward the states rather than Washington, D.C. This is designed to give a more local focus to the Democratic Party, and allow local parties to become more effective.
Through the 200 organizers chosen by and embedded in state parties, provide an increased emphasis on field organizing at the expense of paid media. This takes power away from Democratic media consultants, and also invests in the development Democratic political professional talent.
That's the basic idea, at least as I have always understood and supported it. Over an entire four-year cycle, it is a superior use of resources than hoarding cash for paid media in swing states during the final few months of the presidential elections. It is also smart politically, since state parties hold a large number of votes in the DNC.
Naturally, it was extremely disturbing to hear that the 200 organizers in the state party program were being laid off. While I did not participate in the numerous conference calls Howard Dean held today, I did receive a written response from the DNC in regards to the only question I would have asked him:
Chris: I couldn't make the call, sorry about missing it. However, is there a new statement from the DNC on the future of the 50 state strategy, and word on what will happen to the organizers in the SPP [state party program]?
DNC: There's no indication officially about the 50 state strategy, though Obama's people seem very committed to it and want to keep it going and all the signs are encouraging.
The SPP staffers contracts run out at the end of the month and we're being helpful to people who are SPP staffers who are communicating with us or looking to come to Washington, though they all have picked up a lot of skill sets and it's the best time to look for work in Democratic politics in my lifetime. After the new chairs come in, early next month some may likely pick up the staffers as part of their team or restart the SPP part of the program.
That is all I wanted to know. It is true that this is a time when a lot of people in Democratic politics will be looking and able to switch jobs. It also does seem possible that the full fifty-state strategy, or some variation thereof, will be restarted early next year when the new chair or chairs come in. However, I would disagree that all sign are encouraging. While rhetoric favoring the fifty-state strategy is both easy and politically necessary to make these days, ending the contracts of the staffers in the SPP program points instead to an almost certain termination, or at least re-organization, of that aspect of the fifty-state strategy.
I will keep an open mind, since the strategy will probably live on in at least some truncated form. The first few weeks and months of the new DNC administration will be very interesting, and important, to watch. Losing the fifty-state strategy would be a major step backward for Democrats.
I'm pretty disappointed at the outcome over the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs leadership fight. Denying Lieberman the chair would have been a sign that the Senate Democratic caucus was willing to stand up for itself over the next two years, but instead we were given another sign that the legislative branch no longer matters that much in the United States.
However, given the focus on how this vote means that "the left has been foiled again," I want to push back against the idea that the last two weeks has not somehow been a string of defeats for progressives. There have been setbacks, such as today's Lieberman vote, but there have also been real victories. In the extended entry, I accentuate the positive.
Everyone at the DNC remains very dedicated to the SPP and the SPP staffers who made up the success of the 50 state strategy over the past four years. When the program was first adopted in early 2005, an MOU was signed with the state parties that concludes at the end of this month. This date made sense since it corresponded to the end of the election cycle and was in conjunction with upcoming elections for some of the state party chairs. It was always important that as state parties began the new election cycle they had an opportunity to review what worked, and build upon the earlier infrastructure and hard efforts of those that preceded them. I am sure as the new team arrives at the dnc they will have an appreciation for this program and would like to see it continued.
However, I also obtained part of the email that was sent to the 200 organizers who were fired. Here is the relevant graph:
"Because of your efforts and hard work, last night we made history on November 4. Barack Obama is the President Elect and the world, as we know it, is forever changed. This is a bitter-sweet moment because this great victory comes at the end of our SPP program, which was funded only through November 30. Therefore, this memo explains your final paycheck and the transition from the program."
In a follow-up email, I asked the source the following:
Do you think "transition" means a new job, or is it corporate speak for "you're fired?"
The source replied "you're fired." More in the extended entry.
Former Vermont governor Howard Dean, who rose to national prominence during a failed bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, will not seek a second term as chairman of the Democratic National Committee, clearing the way for a loyalist of President-elect Barack Obama to be named to the soon to be vacant post.(...)
"At this point he has said that he doesn't intend to run again," said a DNC source granted anonymity in order to speak candidly. "He has said so publicly for a while. He has not said what he will do next."
And, confirming earlier reports, the nearly 200 locally based organizers who form the core of the fifty-state strategy have all been fired (more in the extended entry):
It isn't fun to report on bad news, much less on a weekend night after a big victory. However, there are two sad items to report:
Darcy concedes: Darcy Burner has conceded in Washington's 8th congressional district. Darcy writes over email:
"It is likely at this point that Congressman Reichert has won re-election, and while we will certainly ensure that every valid vote is counted, we accept the decision of the voters.
"I would like to thank the thousands of people who put so much time and effort into the campaign, as well as the countless thousands more who went beyond voting to actively participate in our democratic process this year. The election of Barack Obama as our new President will ensure that the change to the direction of our country called for in this campaign is realized in the new year."
This is a victory for local media hit jobs over people power and smart, young leaders. And it is just really, really frakking sad. Darcy's insight, strength and organizing ability will always hold real meaning to me. And she is just a great person, too. It is very rare that I feel a connection with a congressional candidate.
Fifty-state strategy on hold: The DNC organizers who actually form the core of the 50-state strategy at the DNC are being laid off:
A rumor at this point (or rather, someone unwilling to go on record) but what I'm hearing is that the DNC organizers who implement the 50 state strategy are about to be let go. Apparently they will be laid off at the end of the month, and the new DNC chair will decide whether he or she wants to continue the 50 state policy.
Hopefully, the new DNC chair will decide to keep the fifty-state strategy alive. However, I'm not optimistic:
It is worth noting, however, that the 50 state strategy's biggest opponent, for years has been Rahm Emanuel. Rahm's new job? Chief of Staff. Wonder if Obama's ok with this?
I'll guess we will find out. If the organizers get re-hired after Obama selects the new DNC chair, then he believes in the fifty state strategy. If they don't get re-hired, then the only fifty state strategy Obama believed in was the one for his own campaign. I'm strongly hoping it is the former, but Emanuel really was the strongest opponent of the fifty-state strategy.
I'm sorry to be the bring of bad news tonight. However, the fifty-state strategy and Darcy Burner were two big netroots campaigns over the past four years, and these reports needed to be made.
I don't like Rahm Emanuel becoming Obama's chief of staff, but I also don't think it would have mattered if he chose someone else. If Obama wanted Rahm as Chief of Staff, but Rahm had declined or been denied the slot via outside pressure, then you can be sure Obama would have simply sought someone else who was virtually identical to Rahm in terms of demeanor, tactics, and ideology. The options were basically either Rahm or some variation on Rahm. In this case, I view him as simply the vehicle or the weapon, not the person driving or pulling the trigger.
More of my thoughts on what Rahm Emanuel as Chief of Staff says about an Obama administration in the extended entry.
Along with McJoan and Jonathan Singer, who will have more complete transcripts later on, I just had a twenty-minute interview with Howard Dean. Three important notes:
At the rally beforehand, there were chants of "four more years." When asked if he would run for another term, he said that he wasn't thinking about it. In fact, he said that since Barack Obama would be the next President, and since the President traditionally chooses the next DNC chair, he did not anticipate being around for four more years. In short, he was happy with his term, and wasn't running again.
When asked about the ads criticizing him and Speaker Pelosi for Clinton supposedly not being on the ballot at the convention, he scoffed. Clinton will be on the ballot at the convention, and will be speaking there. Dean indicated that the rules were so clear on this matter, that the groups running these ads and spreading these rumors must be associated with the other internet rumors going around, such as Obama being a Muslim. He also speculated that McCain supporters might be behind these rumors.
Dean said that his main goal as chair has been to build a permanent political operation for Democrats in all fifty states, and that this goal is on the brink of being accomplished. He also said that he thinks there is no going back from the fifty-state strategy, and that this sort of broadly based political operation is here to stay for Democrats even after he is no longer chair. He was clearly very proud of this accomplishment. I was clearly in love with him.
Jonathan and McJoan will have the complete audio up later today at Daily Kos and MyDD.
This conference is crazy. Mark Begich, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alaska, is doing fundraising call time next to me right now. It is fascinating to be able to hear it in person. There is no way I could ever run for office if I had to do that.
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign and the Ohio Democratic Party will include state house and senate candidates in their coordinated campaign's get-out-the-vote effort, according to the Obama campaign, breaking with the one led by 2004's Democratic nominee U.S. Sen. John Kerry.
The coordinated effort will feature Obama canvassers going door-to-door and asking voters whom they've decided to vote for in the presidential election, the congressional election and their local house or senate election - a process known as IDing. These preferences are included in the Democratic Party's voter file, which campaigns at various levels can use to decide how they will target areas or even individual houses.
Integrating local races into the coordinated campaign effort is a break with the 2004 Democratic coordinated campaign. Kerry's presidential campaign and the Ohio Democratic Party identified household preferences for the presidential and congressional elections, but not local races.
So, in Ohio, it appears that the Obama campaign is actually expanding the Democratic downticket focus, rather than reducing it. These differing directions in Colorado, Iowa and Ohio make two things clear:
First, there is no uniformity in how coordinated campaigns are run. Different states appear to have different types of coordinated campaigns. This is not only the case in the current election, but also in the 2004 election as well. For example, I visited the coordinated campaign in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, in 2004, and local candidates definitely were involved in the process. However, that appears to be different than how the 2004 coordinated campaign operated in Ohio. These differences are probably based on differing negotiations between presidential state campaign directors and in-state Democratic politicians. A process like that would never be expected to be uniform.
Second, the degree to coordination between the presidential campaign and the downticket campaigns is probably a matter of perspective. Some may complain about the presidential campaign not helping out enough, while others might be surprised and delighted by the amount of help from the top of the ticket. Once again, this will probably vary from state to state, and from perspective to perspective.
Overall, it seems good to keep in mind that the process is not uniform, and it is based on negotiations that involve different people in every state. There is no uniform model for a coordinated campaign, and no uniform perspective on how one views the operation of any coordinated campaign. As such, it is probably a good idea to avoid blanket statements. For my part, that means I simply don't see enough evidence to argue that Obama is dropping the fifty-state strategy. And that is a good thing.
Here is a map that projects Obama's current state targeting strategy. States where organizing fellows are being sent, and where his new ad campaign is running, are shown in black. States receiving either organizing fellows or the ad campaign, but not both, are shown in gray. States receiving neither are allocated according to their 2004 results:
The black, gray and blue total 399 electoral votes, leaving only 139 McCain "safe" states. However, there are actually several more "red" states, worth a combined 57 electoral votes, where a recent poll shows a single digit campaign: Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, all of Nebraska except the 3rd congressional, South Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Even the occasional Texas poll has shown a single-digit campaign. As such, it would probably be a good idea to run national cable ads to supplement these targeted state buys. If the national polls move another three or four points in Obama's direction, more resources can then be directed to these third-tier states.
Still, given that the Obama campaign is putting staff in all fifty-states, the fifty-state nature of the nomination campaign, the DNC's fifty-state strategy is well underway, and that the Obama campaign is engaged in a fifty-state voter registration drive, basically nowhere is going truly uncontested. Unlike many previous campaigns, Democrats now have a solid national foundation that will serve us well into the future. The enormous number of states within ten points or less, not to mention our numerous House and Senate pickup opportunities, is a testament to its success.
Every two years, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) releases it's "red to blue" list of top challengers for Republican-held U.S. House seats.
Five years ago, starting with his Presidential campaign and continuing with his tenure as DNC chair, Howard Dean introduced the idea of a "fifty state strategy" to the Democratic Party. The basic premise of the fifty-state strategy is that in order to truly revitalize the party Democrats needed to organize everywhere in the country, no matter how red or how blue a district may be, and not just in a select few "swing district" districts.
More recently, progressives have utilized Democratic primaries as a means to successfully change Democratic behavior. So far this year, this strategy has worked in districts such as the Illinois 3rd where Dan Lipinski changed his vote on Iraq because of his primary challenger, the Iowa 3rd where Blue Dog Leonard Boswell has suddenly become a progressive on a range of issues now that Ed Fallon is running against him, and the Maryland 4th where Donna Edwards handily defeated the more conservative Al Wynn. It is in the spirit of all three of these projects that BlogPac is announcing a similar program to reform safe, blue seats at the local and statewide level: From Blue to Bluer.
From Blue to Bluer seeks to first identify, and then help elect, progressive, grassroots candidates who are running in competitive Democratic primaries in blue districts around the country. The primaries can either be for open seats or against incumbents who are either too conservative for their districts, or who are simply corrupt, or both. The goal is to find a handful of proudly progressive primary candidates for local and state legislative races, and then provide them with the national support they need to help put them over the top. Through this program, we can show Democrats across the country that that a fifty-state strategy means blue districts too, and that all Democrats, no matter how local, can be held accountable for not representing their districts or for selling out progressive ideals.
The city where I live, Philadelphia, is a perfect example of why we need From Blue To Bluer. With the city regularly voting for Democrats in general elections by more than 80%, Philadelphia is about as deep blue of an area one can find anywhere in the country. However, while there are very few elected Republicans in the city, that does not mean most of our elected officials are progressives.
In fact, the reality is quite the opposite. Many of our local Democrats are beholden to an often-corrupt, non-transparent political machine that governs to dole out appropriations and city jobs to friends, family and local party officials. Dozens of local officials, including members of city council and state Senators, have been indicated and / or are currently in jail. There is even a public, specific price that someone can pay the local machine in order to become an elected judge ($35,000, the last time I checked). Philadelphia politics are definitely Democratic, but we still have a long way to go until we can be accurately called progressive.
In deep blue areas like Philadelphia, Democratic primaries for open seats and primary challenges against Democratic incumbents are just about the only way local progressive reformers can make a difference on the electoral level.
Here in Philly, we've already had some success, electing Michael Nutter mayor and defeating a machine backed incumbent for city council in 2007. One year earlier, local progressives defeated two-machine backed candidates in open primaries for state assembly seats. This year, Anne Dicker (website, get involved, contribute), who in 2006 finished ahead of a machine backed candidate in an open primary for state assembly, is running for State Senate. Her campaign has already had real success, as Vincent Fumo, the repeatedly indicted incumbent in the district, dropped out of the campaign two weeks ago. Here is a video introducing both Anne and the Blue to Bluer campaign:
At BlogPac, we want to identify, and help elect, the best progressive primary candidates in blue districts around the country. Let's find more Anne Dickers! The first step in this campaign is finding the right candidates to support, and that's where you come in. If you have a suggestion for a local or state-level candidate for us to support, please fill out the form below and email it to natasha[dot]the[at]gmail.com:
Please send your emails as word documents with the subject line "From Blue To Bluer."
Just because a seat is blue does not mean it can't become even bluer. Let's build a truly national movement, and make a more progressive, reformed Democratic Party nationwide. Send in your suggestions today. The candidates we help support will only be as good as the ones you suggest.
