Yesterday, Senate Republicans prioritized human life over anti-abortion grandstanding and confirmed Gov. Kathleen Sebelius as Secretary of Health and Human Services. When the world totters on the brink of a pandemic, slow-walking the future health secretary begins to look unseemly.
Okay, looks to me like our floor is 57 (including Lieberman, unfortunately). Virginia and New Mexico are done. Colorado and New Hampshire looking awfully close to being done, if they aren't already. I've been assuming Hagan wins in North Carolina with a huge black turnout. And now I'm assuming that this Stevens verdict means we have a Senator Begich ready to take his seat.
So now the question is getting four more (because that allows us to say "so long, been good to know ya" to Lieberman). The two best prospects among the rest are Franken and Merkley, who both seem to have some momentum and both will get a big boost from high youth turnout and a big Obama victory in their states. That leaves us with trying to find two more from Kentucky, Mississippi, Georgia, and the six long shots who might sneak in with a wave (Maine, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Idaho and Texas). The three in the first category are all possible assuming a pretty big wave, all a little uphill without one. The odds of any of the last six coming through is pretty small absent a really big wave.
I'd say the odds of our getting to 59 are pretty damn good, and the odds of getting to sixty (with Lieberman) decent, and the odds of getting to 60 (without Lieberman) fairly uphill but possible. Gonna be fun to watch...
Based on all the polling, voter registration, and absentee/early voting data I am seeing, and on conversations with key operatives in the field and other analysts following Senate races, I believe Kentucky and Georgia should be moving up on everyone's radar screens.
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