The presidential campaign has been really quiet lately, at least when it comes to news I find interesting. However, I expect that will change for good in about three weeks when we have the final pre-primary fundraising numbers, the finalized primary calendar, and when the Iraq debate in Congress quiets down. In the meantime, the Los Angles Times provides us with some amusement with new polls from Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina:
I do just want to add that the "likely" voter screen for the LA Times and Bloomberg is a bit loose. Doing some back of the napkin math, the likely voter model used here would include more than 870,000 Democratic caucus participants -- which is a bit more than the 122,000 or so that participated in the last Democratic caucus. While there may be more excitement this time around than there was in 2004, there isn't that much more excitement. So what does that mean? A lot of the folks the Times and Bloomberg are deeming "likely" voters or caucus goers are in fact unlikely to participate come January. Most in fact. As such, while these numbers might be good gauges of the general sentiments of these states, I'm not certain how good of gauges they are of the sentiments of those who are actually going to play a large role in selecting the next Democratic nominee.
There are Republican numbers too, and even though they are the first officially post-Thompson polls of early states, I am not going to bother cluttering up the front page by dedicating an entire table to them. Needless to say, Thompson is still getting crushed in Iowa and New Hampshire, but still runs strong in South Carolina.
Given all of these new polls, here is an update to the nomination at a glance tables. Considering the still fluid primary calendar, and all of the noise around Michigan and Florida going early, but everyone promising not to campaign there, I have tried to distill the numbers to the truly essential figures that will determine the nomination.
All State Polls Taken August 8th through September 9th Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$29.6M
$33.6M
$11.8M
$6.9M
Iowa
Dec-Jan?
5
26.2%
21.0%
23.6%
11.6%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
3
35.7%
18.3%
14.7%
8.0%
National
Feb 05
NA
39.2%
21.5%
10.7%
2.4%
Iowa is still close enough that Clinton, Edwards and Obama could finish in any order in the top three, even if the election were held tomorrow. Consider, for example, that in the most recent poll of Iowa, Obama narrowly led among second-place choices with 25% (Edwards had 20%, and Clinton 19%). However, Clinton’s lead is strong enough that even if she were to slip to third place in Iowa, she would still have a decent, at least 50% chance, of winning New Hampshire. Such a scenario would probably lead to a very close finish in New Hampshire, but that is still a luxury no other candidate can afford. Right now, Edwards must win Iowa, and Obama must defeat Clinton in Iowa.
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain
Hukabee
Net Avail Cash
June 30
Q2
$12.1M
$14.7M
$2.8M
$0.1M
$0.4M
Iowa
Dec-Jan?
5
30.8%
14.4%
13.4%
6.6%
9.8%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
3
29.0%
22.0%
10.0%
11.7%
6.0%
South Carolina
Jan 19
4
9.8%
22.0%
22.3%
14.0%
6.8%
National
Feb 05
NA
10.9%
26.7%
18.2%
12.1%
2.7%
I have included South Carolina on the Republican side because it is currently scheduled to take place ten days earlier than the Democratic version, which I do not currently see as meaningfully separate from national polling given its late date. Over here, Romney still looks to be in control in Iowa, which means he is also quite comfortably in control in New Hampshire. The question is whether he will receive enough of a bounce from those two early states to surpass both Thompson and Giuliani in South Carolina. Should he pass both, and win South Carolina, he will cruise to the nomination. Should he pass one, and finish in second, look for a Romney vs. South Carolina winner battle on Super Tuesday. Should Romney win both early states, and then finish in third in South Carolina, I have no idea what happens.
Methodological notes can be found in the extended entry.
Last update: August 22, 3:00 pm eastern State polls taken from July 6th through August 21st Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$29.6M
$33.6M
$11.8M
$6.9M
Iowa
Dec-Jan?
6
26.2%
19.5%
24.8%
11.2%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
5
34.6%
24.8%
13.2%
9.4%
Michigan
Jan 15
2
38.5%
25.5%
16.0%
4.5%
Nevada
Jan 19
1
33.0%
19.0%
15.0%
11.0%
Florida
Jan 29
8
40.8%
19.0%
11.3%
3.3%
South Carolina
Jan 29
5
37.0%
29.8%
14.2%
2.6%
National
Feb 05
NA
38.1%
22.2%
11.2%
2.7%
Clinton once again pushes in front in Iowa, continuing the back and forth with Edwards in the state that has gone on for some time. However, no matter who is ahead at any given point, it is important to remember that Iowa right now is too close for polling to predict the outcome, even if the caucuses were held tomorrow. Clinton only leads Edwards in the state by 1.4%, and Obama by 6.7%. These are by no means solid margins, especially given the odd nature of the Iowa caucus where second-place support, and regional support make a big difference in the overall numbers. For example, the “entrance poll” to the Iowa caucuses in 2004 showed Kerry ahead with 35%, Edwards with 26%, Dean with 21%, and Gephardt with 10%. However, Edwards went up 6% in the final tally, Kerry went up 3%, and Dean went down 3%, based upon second choice and regional differences. Thus, because of the peculiar nature of the caucuses, the overall percentage of support each candidate receives from Iowa caucus goers statewide is different from how the results turn out. Without more info on second place and regional choices, there really isn’t a way of determining whether Clinton, Edwards or Obama is actually “ahead” in Iowa (although it is likely that Obama is not ahead).
Clinton leads overall, but by how much is uncertain. As fladem persuasively argued, Iowa and New Hampshire matter far, far more than national polls, meaing that the campaign is much closer than most polls would suggest. Then again, it is less than clear when Iowa will actually take place this time, and thus what impact it will have on the states to follow is also less than clear.
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Giuliani
Romney
Thompson
McCain
Net Avail Cash
June 30
Q2
$14.7M
$12.1M
$2.8M
$0.1M
Iowa
Dec-Jan?
5
14.8%
26.4%
11.8%
8.8%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
5
20.6%
30.4%
12.4%
13.4%
Michigan
Jan 15
2
19.5%
13.5%
18.0%
15.0%
South Carolina
Jan 19
4
23.8%
9.5%
22.3%
13.8%
Florida
Jan 29
7
28.0%
10.7%
19.7%
9.6%
National
Feb 05
NA
26.5%
10.5%
18.7%
13.6%
OK, let's try and break this down. Right now, Romney is comfortably ahead in Iowa, which seems to pretty much guarantee that he would win New Hampshire, where he also leads. Now, the bounces from those two victories would almost certainly lead to an accompanying Romney victory in Michigan, where there is a tight pack and he only trails by 5.5%. The question then becomes whether or not these three victories will be enough to propel Romney to victory in South Carolina, or whether one of Giuliani and Thompson can make a stand there and blunt Romney's momentum. With ten days separating South Carolina from the next Republican primary, and Thompson and Giuliani both strong nationally and in Florida, South Carolina thus becomes the key state for the entire Republican primary season.
Back in 2000, McCain closed a 52%--32% gap on Bush in South Carolina just before the New Hampshire primary to a 49%-42% gap two weeks later, although Bush did eventually push that lead out to 12% by election day (sources here, here, and here). Right now, that swing would not be enough for Romney to take South Carolina. In that event, the Republican nomination would go to either Giuliani or Thompson, as that candidate would probably go on to win Florida and then many other states on February 5th (Giuliani is the more likely candidate in this scenario). However, the added boost of victories in Iowa and Michigan might just be enough for Romney to take South Carolina, thus giving him a clean sweep and endless momentum heading into Florida and February 5th. Then again, right now Romney trails three candidates in South Carolina, so the momentum he receives from early state wins might come unequally from different candidates, causing him to lose anyway. Overall, assuming no big changes take place in Iowa and New Hampshire, the Republican nomination currently seems to hinge on South Carolina, where Giuliani, Romney and Thompson all have a good shot to win.
Methodological notes can be found in the extended entry.
Assuming I am right about my calendar projections, there are between 139 and 141 days until the Iowa caucuses. Were this 2003, Dean's Sleep Summer Tour would already be over. Were this any other campaign, we would already be in the post-Labor Day period. It ain't too early anymore.
Last update: August 16, 8:30 pm eastern State polls taken from July 9th through August 16th Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
Still hard to figure out. When it comes to money, insiders, Iowa and New Hampshire, the campaign is Giuliani versus Romney. When it comes to national polls, Florida, and South Carolina, it is Giuliani versus Thompson. While it certainly seems like Romney has the insider track, given that he is a distant fourth nationally, the least liked top-tier candidate around, and still struggling in the south, one wonders if he will receive enough of a boost from Iowa and New Hampshire to make up the necessary ground to compete on January 19th and afterward (assuming that Romney even holds on to win those two states). Also, while Giuliani is at least vaguely competitive in every category, his national polling trend is sharply downward, and one wonders what will happen after he takes the apparent beatings he will receive in Iowa and New Hampshire. So, then one turns to Thompson because of his relative southern strength, but considering that he has little money, recent staff shakeups, few trips to early states, and that Republican insiders like Romney and Giuliani more, it is hard not to conclude that Thompson is pretty much in the second tier, barely above McCain. He is already trending downward in most polls, and does not look to be able to compete in Iowa and New Hampshire. What a mess this whole situation is. Actually, it is not a bad metaphor for the entire Republican Party right now.
Methodological notes can be found in the extended entry.
Lots of changes, since I have removed old polls and the calendar has been shaken up...
Last update: August 9, 12:00 pm eastern State polls taken from July 9th through August 8th, except Nevada, which was polled in mid-June Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$29.6M
$33.6M
$11.8M
$6.9M
Iowa
Jan 3/4
4
26.2%
20.1%
24.0%
11.1%
New Hampshire
Jan 12
3
30.3%
26.3%
10.7%
8.3%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
39.5%
16.5%
14.0%
6.5%
Florida
Jan 29
6
39.5%
18.0%
10.5%
2.8%
South Carolina
Jan 29
3
38.3%
29.3%
16.0%
3.0%
National
Feb 05
NA
37.9%
22.6%
11.0%
2.5%
Clinton is in a very strong position right now. While Obama has closed in New Hampshire and maintains a monetary lead, Clinton has edged out in front in Iowa and increased her national advantage. Further, it now seems that South Carolina will matter less, since Florida will be taking place on the same day, she has secured an additional firewall heading into Super Tuesday. Basically, her national lead is so large right now, that even if she finishes third in Iowa, and also loses New Hampshire, she will still have a good chance at the nomination with a Florida and Super Tuesday 1-2 combination.
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Giuliani
Romney
Thompson
McCain
Net Avail Cash
June 30
Q2
$14.7M
$12.1M
$3M (?)
$0.1M
Iowa
Jan 3/4
4
15.0%
24.5%
11.7%
9.5%
New Hampshire
Jan 12
3
23.0%
29.0%
12.3%
13.3%
South Carolina
Jan 19
3
26.0%
6.3%
21.0%
17.7%
Florida
Jan 29
5
26.4%
10.0%
20.4%
10.4%
National
Feb 05
NA
25.3%
9.6%
19.3%
14.7%
Giuliani looks to be in trouble. Despite his national and monetary lead, he will probably be severely damaged by Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, and then pushed hard by both Romney and Thompson in South Carolina and Florida. After Giuliani’s national poll numbers continue to drop, Iowa and New Hampshire might knock him to third. At that point, the nomination could end up being between Romney and Thompson, with the question being whether or not Thompson can use southern strongholds of South Carolina to stop Romney’s momentum. Still hard to figure out though, since Thompson has raised such little cash. Romney might actually be in command right now, given his large Iowa and New Hampshire advantages.
Methodological notes can be found in the extended entry.
Pollster.com, which truly rocks, has a new chart that is worth a look. It shows how closely people are paying attention to this presidential election compared with previous cycles. According to the chart, national interest in the presidential campaign is much higher at this point in the 2008 campaign than it was in any other campaign over the past twenty years.
Why is this? Certainly, part of that is because the primaries will be starting early. Also, I imagine the heavier news coverage of the campaign has also played a role. No doubt, the national desire to get beyond Bush is another factor. Personally, however, my favorite explanation is the rise of grassroots progressive activism, and even of progressive culture, which have led to more people paying attention to elections, especially elections of Democrats and progressives. Just wanted to throw that out there to combat the inevitable complaints that appear in comments about how “its way too early for all of this.” More people than ever diagree with that sentimnet.
And now, onto the averages…
Last update: August 1, 4:00 pm eastern State polls taken from June 13th through July 30th
Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$29.6M
$33.6M
$11.8M
$6.9M
Iowa
December
6
25.0%
16.7%
26.2%
9.8%
New Hampshire
December
6
34.8%
24.0%
10.3%
8.2%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
39.5%
16.5%
14.0%
6.5%
South Carolina
Jan 22
5
34.6%
28.0%
16.0%
2.2%
Florida
Jan 29
7
39.3%
17.8%
11.8%
3.2%
National
Feb 05
NA
36.0%
23.7%
11.2%
2.5%
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Giuliani
Romney
Thompson
McCain
Net Avail Cash
June 30
Q2
$14.7M
$12.1M
$3M (?)
$0.1M
Iowa
December
5
16.4%
23.8%
15.0%
11.2%
New Hampshire
December
6
20.7%
27.2%
12.8%
14.8%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
19.0%
21.5%
20.5%
12.0%
South Carolina
Jan 22
4
24.8%
7.5%
22.0%
15.0%
Florida
Jan 29
6
27.2%
8.7%
21.5%
10.8%
National
Feb 05
NA
24.4%
9.7%
19.3%
15.2%
In case you were wondering, my averages are different from those at Pollster.com, because I use a simple mean while they use a trendline system. Mystery Pollster writes about that here.
Methodological notes can be found in the extended entry.
I have updated the nomination at a glance tables to accurately reflect the primary cash on hand for each candidate minus total debt. In lieu of new commentary on the numbers, I thought people might find this statistic notable (source, PDF):
Total 2008 presidential donors under $200: 565,000 (est) for 18% of total money raised
Total 2008 presidential donors at or over $2,300: 47,713, for 45% of total money raised.
Barely more than one half of one percent of the 2004 electorate has given money to presidential campaigns so far in the 2008 cycle. Even among those who have given money, large donors have given 2.5 times as much money as small donors, despite there being 12 times as many small donors. An excrutiatingly small percentage of America provides the resources with which campaigns use to speak to the rest of America. Amidst the buzz about the great new influx of small donors in politics, that does not strike me as a particularly healthy development for our democracy.
Last update: July 29, 3:00 pm eastern State polls taken from June 13th through July 25h
Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$29.6M
$33.6M
$11.8M
$6.9M
Iowa
December
5
24.0%
17.0%
27.4%
9.2%
New Hampshire
December
5
35.6%
23.2%
10.8%
9.0%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
39.5%
16.5%
14.0%
6.5%
South Carolina
Jan 22
4
36.0%
27.0%
15.5%
2.3%
Florida
Jan 29
7
39.3%
17.8%
11.8%
3.2%
National
Feb 05
NA
36.2%
23.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Obama actually has more cash on hand than Bush did at the same point in 2003!
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Giuliani
Romney
Thompson
McCain
Net Avail Cash
June 30
Q2
$14.7M
$12.1M
$3M (?)
$0.1M
Iowa
December
4
15.0%
24.5%
15.5%
9.8%
New Hampshire
December
5
19.4%
27.4%
12.8%
15.8%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
19.0%
21.5%
20.5%
12.0%
South Carolina
Jan 22
3
23.7%
7.7%
20.3%
16.7%
Florida
Jan 29
6
27.2%
8.7%
21.5%
10.8%
National
Feb 05
NA
24.8%
9.9%
20.1%
15.3%
McCain’s cash on hand figure only barely surpasses his total debts owed. Also, while the Romney campaign owes nearly $9M in debts, most of that is in the form of candidate self-financing, I believe.
Methodological notes can be found in the extended entry.
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