Today, the Proposition 8 trial in San Francisco Federal Court will hear its long-awaited closing arguments - as gay marriage advocates prepare to return to the ballot. And a new study conducted by the Haas Jr. Foundation looks at pre-election polling data from 33 states that passed anti-gay marriage initiatives. It concludes (a) we always do worse than what polls say, and (b) voters don't change their minds about this issue during campaigns. The lesson, of course, is that we must work harder to move hearts and minds - and that work can't be done in a short election season. Sadly, the implications of this study will strike many as discouraging - was all the money, time and energy we spent in California and Maine somehow a waste? It's true gay marriage is a sensitive topic that voters develop hard feelings about that can't be changed overnight. But the study did not focus on the small sliver of "persuadable" voters in each election who decide the outcome.
I'm back home in San Francisco, after spending 10 days on the ground in Maine with the "No on 1" campaign. After my time there, I truly believe that - with our help - Maine will become the first state in the nation to successfully defend marriage equality at the ballot box, providing a roadmap for California to repeal Proposition 8. Maine activists have been working hard for five years to pass gay marriage, but events in the last few days now point to what should be an historic victory on November 3rd. With only 19 days left, what I'm seeing from the "Yes on 1" campaign reminds me of where "No on 8" was at this point last year - outgunned by the opposition, unable to control the message and at a loss about what to do. If Question 1 passes, it will be our fault for not having done more. But if Question 1 fails, those of us who get involved will have made history - which is why I hope to go back for the last four days. Here are the reasons for my optimism ...
BANGOR - "Welcome to the real Maine," said Regional Field Organizer Gabi Bérubé as I arrived yesterday at the "No on 1" office in Brewer, just across the Penobscot River from Bangor. That's what Mainers up here call their part of the state, and it's where I am spending the rest of my time on the campaign. I asked to go to Bangor because I wanted to help our field effort in more challenging places, after "No on 8" spent too much time last year preaching to the choir. The Bangor office covers everything north and east of here - in other words, two-thirds of the state's land mass. Replicating Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy, "No on 1" believes we have gay marriage supporters everywhere - and it's our challenge to organize them. But we're also targeting the University of Maine in Orono, whose 11,000 students make it the largest college in the state. Mobilizing young people on campus - and turning out identified supporters in rural areas - will prevent us from getting creamed in northern Maine, which will help us win statewide.
Tonight, I'm taking a red-eye flight to Maine - arriving in Portland tomorrow. I'll be there for 10 days, volunteering for the "No on 1" campaign to protect marriage equality. And I'm taking my laptop with me - so readers will get my daily dispatches. As a Californian, the fight against Question 1 is personal. Gays and lesbians last year had their rights snatched away, and it can never happen again. Proposition 8 was eminently beatable, but our side ran a bad campaign - and I'm determined to take my work and experience to assist the effort in Maine. The right has long argued that every time "the people" get to vote on same-sex marriage, it loses. It is time to deliver them - and their consultant, Frank Schubert (who ran "Yes on 8" and is now running "Yes on 1") a humiliating defeat, one with national implications. But one person can only walk so many precincts. That's why we'll be working to help send volunteers from across the country over the next 32 days, because everyone needs to chip in for this fight.
Using the same right-wing consultants that passed Proposition 8 in California, the "Yes on 1" campaign in Maine is once again trying to scare voters into believing gay marriage will be "taught" in public schools. But supporters of marriage equality this time have effectively re-framed the issue, arguing that schools should be "safe havens" for all Maine families - and that opponents want the children of gay parents to "feel ashamed." Faced with more savvy adversaries than what they had last year, "Yes on 1" now plans to attack an award-winning film schools have been using for years (and was screened at the Clinton White House) that teaches respect for all families - beyond the children of gay couples to include mixed-race families and adopted children. If they want to re-play the Prop 8 game, it won't work. Yesterday, President Obama issued a proclamation honoring families "from all walks of life" - including those raised by same-sex couples.
STATE BLOGS
