The bulk of your "A list" progessive bloggers are now between the ages of 30 and 50. Many blog readers also fall into this age range. Those of us in this demographic are too young to have personal memories of progressive political power. There was some of that in the 1960s according to what I've seen on the History Channel and in books but I've never felt it.
This age group is also too old for unfettered idealism. Our political memories include the dark Bush-Cheney years, the "pragmatic" Clinton years (and an impeachment) and, for some, the Reagan-Bush years and the less-than-successful Carter years. There may be some idealism still lurking inside but it's, well, fettered idealism.
And so, perhaps unsurprisingly, your thinking can become limited by what has been rather than what could be. I think that, in part, explains the persistence of voices, even in Democratic circles, underestimating the chances for real progressive change. Today Nate Silver is acknowledging his error on the chances of success for the public option (though he noted, presciently, that is wasn't a done deal yet). As usual, Nate is trying to be reality-based when making predictions. He has not been alone is expressing pessimism on the public option's chances.
I would suggest to Nate and other empiricists that the ground has shifted and if you want to be reality-based you need to appreciate the new terrain. I'll describe this inside and offer what I think are reality-based reasons for embracing optimism for a progressive future.
How can Time's Mark Halperin STILL not get that the public option is popular?
On Morning Joe, he said that if Harry Reid wanted to appeal to "moderates" in his home state, he would not have embraced the public option.
This despite the fact that the PCCC's Research 2000 Nevada poll just last week showed that the public option enjoys 54 to 39% support in Nevada -- 55% to 39% among Independents.
He also said Blanche Lincoln could lose re-election over the public option. What??
Back to Research 2000: The public option enjoys 55% to 38% approval in Arkansas -- 56% to 34% among Independents.
Does Halperin think there's a 20 point margin of error? Seriously -- this guy used to mold DC's conventional wisdom when he wrote "The Note" each morning for ABC. And he is absolutely clueless.
Runner-up: CNN's Dana Bash who, despite months of polls showing the public option is overwhelmingly popular, yelled at Harry Reid during yesterday's bold announcement of a public option:
"How much of this is about making liberals happy?" CNN's Bash called after the majority leader.
I know that poll-driven politics gets a bad rap. But please -- for the love of God -- reporters: Would you learn how to read a poll?
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