I had promised myself that I wasn't going to write about the Democratic presidential nomination campaign anymore, or at least that I wouldn't write about it as an unresolved, ongoing process anymore. However, with very few new general election polls after the holiday weekend, what's one more for old time's sake?
Anyway, in advance of the Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting this Saturday, DNC lawyers have issued an advisory opinion that the DNC is required to strip Michigan and Florida of at least half their delegates. Assuming for a moment that Florida and Michigan are seated with half delegations based on the results of the January 22nd primaries, we are presented with the following delegate chart:
* = Florida pledged delegates currently split 105 Clinton, 69 Obama, and 11 Edwards, based on the results of the January primary and two Edwards pledged delegates flipping to Obama. Superdelegate totals in the state currently stand at 8 Clinton, 5 Obama, and 13 uncommitted.
** = Michigan pledged delegates current split 73 Clinton, 22 Obama, and 33 uncommitted, based on the results of the January primary and April district conventions. Superdelegates totals in the state currently stand at 7 Clinton, 5 Obama, and 17 uncommitted.
This leads to a grand total of Obama 2,078.5, Clinton 1,919.5, Edwards 12.5, and 222.5 uncommitted. Obama would be 38 delegates away from officially clinching at this point, and Obama + Edwards would be 25.5 away from officially clinching. If reports of Obama banking three dozen or so superdelegates in order to officially clinch on June 4th or June 5th are accurate, then Obama will comfortably clinch before the June 14th Michigan state convention.
So, barring something truly shocking, Obama will reach the magic number no later than next Thursday. The nomination campaign, and all major federal primaries will be over. From that point, we will have exactly five months to come together, crush Republicans, and build the enormous trifecta.
This is the final nomination at a glance post that I intend to make. Tomorrow, the 2008 Presidential Election Forecast, which I will update just about every day between now and November, will replace it
The Democratic nomination campaign is over, and there is no need to keep a running, updated count anymore. Massive pro-Obama superdelegate movement, combined with the John Edwards endorsement, were the final straws. At this point, Obama now holds a commanding lead, even if Florida and Michigan are seated exactly as the Clinton campaign hopes they are.
* Two Edwards delegates in Florida have now indicated they will support Obama
Even if Michigan and Florida are seated based entirely on the results of the January "primaries," which is extremely unlikely, then Obama leads by 135 delegates even without the remaining 25 Edwards delegates and 19 Michigan uncommitted delegates added to his total. There is simply no longer any path for Clinton to reach the nomination. This is probably why Obama is poised to declare victory on Tuesday night:
Senator Barack Obama has chosen to spend Tuesday night not in Kentucky or Oregon, the two states that will be holding their primaries that day, or even at his home in Chicago. Instead, Mr. Obama's staff announced on Saturday, he will be returning to Iowa, where he won the Democratic caucuses way back in January and has at least two good reasons to revisit now.
Much more than nostalgia seems to have motivated that decision. If things continue to go as well for Mr. Obama this week as they have so far this month, with a romp in North Carolina, a strong showing in Indiana and daily growth in his support among party superdelegates, he could actually end up with enough pledged delegates to proclaim, without fear of contradiction, that he is now the Democratic nominee for president.
They should change the "could" to "will" in that article. As a result, it will be exciting to live blog Tuesday's returns. Here are a few more notes on the end of the nomination at a glance series:
On Tuesday night, Obama will also be able to secure victory in a metric that has long been important to me: the popular vote. Even if Michigan and Florida are included in measures of popular participation, notions to which I am actually quite open because no other delegate selection events were made available to the residents of those two states, about 260,000 more participants in Democratic delegate selection events preferred Obama to Clinton. While the uncommitted vote in Michigan and lack of popular totals in four caucus states make a final count impossible, exit polls and voter turnout estimates among those groups provide conclusive, incontrovertible evidence that more participants in Democratic delegate selection events supported Obama than Clinton. This metric might not matter to you, but it even with all the imperfections in the process it does matter to me, and I am very glad that our presumptive nominee will finish ahead in this category. (See here and here for more information on this.)
Biggest Upset Ever. The enormity of Obama's accomplishment should not be underestimated. He succeeded where Ted Kennedy, Gary Hart and Bill Bradley failed: defeating a candidate with overwhelming institutional support to win the Democratic nomination. Going into this campaign, the Hillary Clinton had fifteen years of power building at her back, and Obama was able to edge her out in only fifteen months.
Best Nomination Campaign, Ever: The three nomination campaigns I remember when I was growing up were 1984, 1988 and 1992, all of which were lengthy, unpredictable contests with numerous twists and turns. The next three Democratic contests, 1996, 2000 and 2004 were incredibly weak and boring by comparison. For quite some time, I have longed for a campaign when everyone got to have their say, not just Iowa and New Hampshire. I longed for a real contest over who would lead the Democratic Party, and even though the ideological component of this campaign was mainly identity-based, we finally got another one of those. As a blogger and a political junkie, I wanted few things more than to be able to become a leading expert on delegates and delegate counting. Over the last four months, I have relished that role about as much as I have ever enjoyed anything as a blogger. Truly wonderful.
As Matt noted below, Obama is going to get crushed in West Virginia tonight. In fact, crushing victories look par for the course the rest of the way out:
Current polling projects that Obama only needs 42.5 superdelegate endorsements between now and June 3rd in order to clinch the nomination on June 4th, at least according to his campaign's count.
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The Clinton campaign count doesn't help her that much, as Obama only needs 35.8% of the remaining superdelegates, Edwards delegates, and Michigan delegates in order to secure the nomination. It buys her time, but really only until June 15th, and does not change the outcome. Don't expect superdelegates to accept what will be a clearlybogus argument on the popular vote, either. And, as a final problem, one of her pledged delegates switched to Obama today.
Ah, I'll miss the nomination at a glance series. What are your predictions for tonight?
Here is a round-up of what has been a series really bad bits of news for Hillary Clinton's campaign today:
Obama will never fall behind in any overall delegate count, every again. Obama will be ahead of Clinton is delegates even if Florida is seated as is, and even if Obama gets zero delegates from Michigan, and even if Obama dails to net anymore superdelegates. Polling conducted before Indiana and North Carolina projected Clinton to net 31 pledged delegates from the remaining six contests. However, Democratic Convention Watch projects Obama ahead by 37.5 delegates even if Florida is seated based on January 29thth results, and even if Obama receives zero delegates from Michigan. In other words, there is no conceivable delegate count under which Clinton will ever be ahead, ever again.
Of course, that above situation, where Obama can't lose, assumes that polls won't get any worse for Clinton. However, Obama is surging in the Rasmussen tracking poll to the point where Rasmussen announced it will discontinue the tracking poll.
Of course, that above situation, where can't lose, assumes that Obama will receive zero delegates from Michigan. However, the entire leadership of the Michigan Democratic Party now supports giving Obama 59 delegates from Michigan.
The nomination campaign is rapidly collapsing. Given how fast this is taking place since pundits declared the race over, it appears that the national media could have done this anytime since Wisconsin if they so desired. Sad to say it, but they really do still have the power.
I know we are supposed to move on from the nomination campaign at this point, but in case there was any lingering doubt Clinton could still win the nomination, the new deal proposed from the Michigan Democratic Party should be an end to it. Every high-level Michigan Democrat now appears to be behind a 69-59 pledged delegate split, plus seating the superdelegates:
Michigan Democratic leaders settled today on a plan to give presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton 69 delegates and Barack Obama 59 as a way to get the delegates seated at the national convention.(...)
The state party's executive committee voted today to ask the national party's Rules and Bylaws Committee to approve the 69-59 delegate split when it meets May 31. The plan would shrink Clinton's delegate edge in Michigan from 18 to 10 and allow the state's 157 delegates and superdelegates to be seated at the convention.
The state's Democratic leaders also pushed back the date of the party's State Central Committee meeting from May 17 to June 14 to give the rules committee time to act. The party is to pick 45 pledged delegates and two superdelegates at that meeting. It chose 83 pledged delegates last month at district conventions.
A separate plan submitted to the rules committee by Democratic National Committee members Joel Ferguson of Michigan and Jon Ausman of Florida, both superdelegates, apparently will be withdrawn now that the Michigan executive committee has settled on the 69-59 plan. Under their proposal, delegates would have been allocated based on the primary election results, but have had only half a vote each. The superdelegates would have had full voting rights.(...)
The 69-59 split was proposed last week by four prominent Michigan Democrats who have been working for months to find a way to get Michigan's delegates seated at the Aug. 25-28 convention in Denver: U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger, U.S. Sen. Carl Levin and DNC member Debbie Dingell.
While this may not be the exact plan that will pass, it is probably pretty close to the exact plan that will pass. Further, because of hte people backing the proposal, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will get a better deal than this on Michigan. When it or something similar does pass, Florida will become irrelevant, and probably be seated based on something similar to the January 29th results. Here is the delegate count under that scenario:
Even with Florida seated as is, Clinton trails by 96 delegates when the Michigan Party's plan is enacted. Further, since Edwards has declined to make an endorsement, his 32 delegates are now effectively uncommitted superdelegates. So, this means that the best case-scenario for Clinton right now is that she trails by 96 delegates with 549.5 delegates remaining. So, even in Clitnon's best case scenario, Obama only needs 227 of the remaining 550.5 delegates, or 41.3%, to win the nomination.
Clinton's best-case scenario still overwhelmingly favors Obama. So yes, the outcome of the nomination campaign is now a foregone conclusion.
Update: Yes, Florida probably won't be seated as is, and I probably should not have written that it would be. Still, that is why this is Clinton's best-case scenario. And it ain't very good.
Update 2: The Clinton campaign rejects the proposal, which isn't surprising because it puts her nowhere near the nomination. However, considering its backers, most of whom are Clinton people, I still say that something better than this for Clinton is extremely unlikely.
The Obama campaign has started to keep a running count of superdelegates on its results page. While it does not provide a list of the superdelegate endorsements, the total is still a useful public service. Also, I can understand why they wouldn't want to list the individual superdelegates, given that any errors could cause real problems from them. At this point, I'm fine that they only provide totals.
Some might object that I am not accurately portraying the position of the Obama campaign on Michigan and Florida. While I list the Obama campaign arguing for a 184-184 split of the 368 delegates from those two states, the results page on the Obama campaign website lists each state as receiving zero delegates. However, this is a contradiction from the Obama campaign, not an error on my part. While the campaign lists each state with zero delegates, it has also stated that it wants to see Michigan and Florida both seated at the convention, but with a 50-50 split of delegates. So, the campaign is arguing for 184-184 in some places, and 0-0 in others. Since we all know that both states will be seated at the convention, I will stick with 184-184 for now.
Clinton has actually picked up a couple of delegates recently, one in Pennsylvania (now projected at 85-73 by Green Papers) and one half in American Samoa (now projected at Clinton 2-1 Obama by Green Papers), for a net of three delegates.
I have also separated out Michigan and Florida in these tables so that they make more sense. The 45 remaining delegates from Michigan will be chosen on May 17th at the state party convention, I believe. At that convention, according to her campaign's count, Clinton will pick up twenty-six more delegates and net at least seven. After that, the Rules and Bylaws Committee will hold a hearing on Michigan and Florida on May 31st. If nothing changes from that meeting, then the Credentials Committee takes over the matter.
Here are the future delegate projections, with the state projections based on current polls:
This brings us to the following, dueling projections:
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Obama Total
2,140
2,002
19
211
2,208.5
Clinton Total
2,048.5
1,992.5
37
335
2,208.5
Clearly, under the Obama count, the nomination campaign is effectively over. Obama is still favored even under the Clinton count, since he would only need 46.9% of the remaining delegates to reach the magic number.
Clinton's path to the nomination involves a combination of two rather unlikely steps. First, force a the campaign all the way to the convention by preventing Obama from reaching the magic number under Clinton's most favorable count. This will require both forcing an extremely favorable deal on Michigan and Florida and significantly improving upon her current projected delegate totals in remaining states. Second, it will require her to destroy Obama as a viable general election candidate to such a degree that Obama superdelegates actually start shifting to Clinton. To date, not a single Obama superdelegate has switched to Clinton, so once again this seems extremely unlikely.
The nomination campaign is taking a while, but it certainly seems like Obama is headed to victory, probably sometime in mid-June.
Which leads to the following, dueling projections:
Democratic Nomination Delegate Projection
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Obama Count
2,129
2,003
18
219
2,208
Clinton Count
2,044
1,989
37
299
2,208
There is a notion that the nomination campaign needs to end in June so that, among other things, the party can heal its wounds in time for the general election. However, I'm not sure that having an extra month or two will make a difference, given the identity gaps in the primary are actually widening. Check out these numbers from Pew:
At this point, the primary campaign has regressed to pre-2007 Philadelphia levels. If African-Americans are supporting Obama 7-1, and whites who did not attend college are supporting Clinton by nearly a 3-1 margin, then really the nomination campaign isn't about much of anything except for race. This is what happened in Philadelphia in several past primary elections, where about 80% of whites would vote of the white candidate in a primary, and about 80% of African-Americans would vote for the African-American candidate in the mayoral primary. This changed in the most recent mayoral primary, where the top two candidates, Michael Nutter and Tom Knox, both had diverse, multi-racial coalitions. I have to say, its pretty pathetic that the national Democratic Party is now lagging behind Philadelphia in terms of race relations.
I have to wonder how divisions of this nature can be healed just given an extra month or two. I also have to wonder if this was always the danger we faced in the primary. Clinton and Obama are both pretty centrist, and do not differ from each other on policy that much (although there are some difference on health care and telecom policy). As such, wasn't this really all about identity from the start? For a primary campaign to be based on identity instead of on policy is a ticking time bomb for any coalition, especially one that is built on historically under-represented groups in D.C. like African-Americans, Latinos, women and the LGBT community.
Now, the counter point to this argument would be that both Clinton and Obama are beating McCain right now anyway, so it doesn't seem like the coalition is all that frayed. Further, identity plays the decisive factor in virtually every campaign, so this really isn't any different--it is just more overt. So, while the identity gaps between Clinton and Obama are pretty striking, perhaps we make too much of these differences in the party.
Which leads to the following, dueling projections:
Democratic Nomination Delegate Projection
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Obama Count
2,161
2,017
18
219
2,208
Clinton Count
2,076
2.003
37
299
2,208
A few thoughts on these numbers:
Clinton has not gained any ground among pledged delegates in March and April combined. Here is the tally, according to Green Papers:
PA: Clinton +10
Iowa 2nd and Third Tier: Obama +9
Colorado 2nd Tier: Clinton +2
Mississippi: Obama +7
Wyoming: Obama +2
Vermont: Obama +3
Texas: Obama +3
Rhode Island: Clinton +5
Ohio: Clinton +7
That results in a net gain of zero for both candidates in March and April. Throw in Michigan, and Obama actually gained 31 pledged delegates.
Obama has netted 28 superdelegates during March and April, according to Democratic Convention Watch. At the start of March, Clinton led 240-193 among supers, but as of this writing her lead has been cut to 261-242. That is a net gain of 28 superdelegates, and 28 overall delegates, for Obama over March and April. In other words, overall Obama is actually gaining ground in terms of delegates, despite the perception that he is stumbling.
After Tuesday, there will only be 217 pledged delegates left, plus 45 at the Michigan state party convention on May 17th. This means that unless there is a huge superdelegate rush over the next week, in seven days more superdelegates will be left than pledged delegates. May 6th is thus really the last time that voters, rather than superdelegates, will be in the spotlight during the campaign.
There seems to be a conventional wisdom forming that Clinton needs to win Indiana and "come close" in North Carolina, which I presume to mean at least closer than her nine-point victory in Pennsylvania. Given that she has not made up any ground since Wisconsin, and given how few pledged delegates remain, that certainly seems fair as a minimum requirement for Clinton. An argument could even be made that she needs to win North Carolina, given her current deficit.
As near as I can tell, the basic rationale behind the CW is that Clinton will be able to start making up significant ground in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. So, if (with the exception of Oregon and North Carolina) she can continue a string of victories straight from Pennsylvania to the end, and get a favorable Michigan and Florida ruling at he end of May, then she might be close enough, and have enough momentum, for superdelegates to put her over the top. However, if she gets waxed on May 6th, none of that matters.
At the very least, it is something of relief that nine superdelegates (split 5-4 in favor of Obama) have endorsed over the last two days, and that Obama could plausibly deliver a CW-knockout blow with a sweep on May 6th. For those of us who are looking for the campaign to come to a resolution in either May or June, that is very welcome news.
Back on Friday evening, I argued, in a fashion that would have made Michel Foucault proud, that there is no objective, "true," delegate count, but instead only the power each campaign possessed to make its delegate count a reality. In other words, the truth of delegate counts and the power over the selection and credentialing of, not to mention rule making for, delegates are interchangeable concepts. As such, my new goal in delegate counting is not to determine the "true" delegate count, but instead to accurately determine the delegate count being argued for, and kept by, both the Obama and Clinton campaigns. From that point, we will see who has enough power over the process in order to make their delegate count a reality.
Which leads to the following, dueling projections:
Democratic Nomination Delegate Projection
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Obama Count
2,155
2,013
18
230
2,208
Clinton Count
2,070
1,999
37
310
2,208
The disparity in the "remaining" column in the two counts comes from the argument over Florida and Michigan. The Clinton campaign count currently leaves 45 Michigan pledged delegates (all PLEO and at-large), 21 Michigan superdelegates, and 14 Florida superdelegates in the undetermined column. The 45 Michigan pledged delegates will be determined at the state party convention on May 17th, and will allow Clinton to gain some ground in her count. The rest of the "remaining" column in both counts are non-add-on superdelegates from outside Florida and Michigan.
Since it is one of the few times I have been able to apply Michel Foucault to something outside of academia, I am enjoying this new post-modern delegate counting that eschews a belief in an objective delegate reality. Even so, I do actually have a personal preference on how Michigan and Florida should be decided. If I were in charge, I would seat Florida's pledged delegates as is, and seat the pledged delegates from Michigan Clinton 73-55 Obama. From that point, I would strip both states of their superdelegates. This way, the voters of the two states are not punished, but the superdelegates who are responsible putting both states in this mess are. I actually think that this should become the standard punishment for states that flout the primary calendar: keep the pledged delegates, but strip the superdelegates with no possibility of reinstatement. I also really like the idea of superdelegates whining that they should be seated at the convention. That would be an hilarious press conference.
With Clinton + Edwards coming within four delegates of Obama, the possibility of a convention fight looms. In order to avoid fights at the credentials committee, rules committee, or floor of the convention, it is important for Obama to secure the as many of the 28 remaining uncommitted delegates from Michigan as possible, and to improve on the delegate projections for states and territories yet to hold nominating contests. It is also important that the remaining superdelegates commit to a candidate, just as almost every primary voter or caucus goer has already had to commit to a candidate. I still don't see a way for Clinton to pass Obama, short of Edwards moving his delegates to her in a block. Remarkable that Edwards still has an important role to play in the campaign, even at this late date.
Thousands of Democrats will gather across the state Saturday to choose the 83 people and 15 alternates they want to represent them at the national convention in Denver in August.(...)
So Michigan is going ahead with its congressional district conventions at 10 a.m. Saturday, where 83 delegates will be selected based on the outcome of the primary, which Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York won with 55% of the vote. She will receive 47 of the delegates and 13 alternates while the people who voted "uncommitted" will get 36 of the delegates and two alternates. Another 45 delegates will be selected at the May 17 meeting of the Democratic Party's state central committee.(...)
Some Obama supporters have said they're worried Clinton supporters will try to poach some uncommitted delegates.
"But it's highly unlikely that's going to happen," Brewer said. "There's going to be some pretty intense questioning of these candidates."
So, in all likelihood, Obama will win 36 of the uncommitted delegates from Michigan on Saturday, and then win the remaining 19 at the Michigan state convention on May 17th. Michigan will then have a pledged delegate breakdown of Clinton 73-55 Obama. Everyone knows that Michigan will have a delegation seated at the convention, and the 73-55 looks like the only option right now. In the same vein, Florida's delegation will almost certainly be Clinton 105, Obama 67, and Edwards 13. For all the wrangling and arguments over Michigan and Florida, the deal will just end up being what I proposed from the beginning: seat Florida as is, and give Obama Michigan's 55 uncommitted delegates.
While this solution might not be perfectly democratic, neither is the nomination campaign. The important thing is that is reasonably fair, and that it will end the increasingly irritating argument over these two states. Obama probably would have pulled even with Clinton in a Michigan revote, but nine delegates strikes me as a reasonable penalty for pulling his name from the ballot. This is especially the case given that Edwards would have won some of those uncommitted delegates if he was still in the campaign.
With the outcome of Michigan and Florida coming into focus, it is time to start counting delegates with Michigan and Florida included. Here is my first stab:
Democratic Nomination Delegate Count
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Pledged
1,416
1,253
18
566
1,627
MI + FL
122
178
13
0
NA
Super
233
267
0
279
--
Add-on
8
3
0
70
NA
Total
1,771
1,698
31
915
2,208
From this point, Obama needs 437 delegates to win the nomination, or 47.8% of the remaining delegates, while Clinton needs 510 delegates, or 55.7%. Given that an Obama lead of 73 delegates sounds significantly less imposing than the previous leads we have seen, does Clinton have a chance to catch up? According to current polling, here are projections for the remaining pledged delegates:
From this point, Obama would need 115 of the remaining 271, or 42.5%, of the non-add-on, non-Pelosi Club superdelegates in order to secure the nomination. Clinton would need 188 of those same 271 superdelegates, or 69.4%, in order to win. The thirty-one Edwards delegates might also come into play here, making an Edwards endorsement key. If Edwards were to endorse Obama, it would effectively end the campaign. If Edwards were to endorse Clinton, it would breathe new life into her chances, and give her a legitimate, though still unlikely, shot at winning the nomination.
The final delegate selection events take place on June 21st, when seven add-on delegates are chosen at six state conventions around the country. It is a reasonable bet that the nomination campaign will continue until that point. Superdelegates have been given a deadline of July 1st by many party leaders, and it is difficult to imagine they would continue to wait much longer after June 21st anyway. Also, Edwards should be pushed to make an endorsement if the campaign remains undecided by that point.
As far as the popular vote goes, I don't think it will come too much into play. If Michigan and Florida are included in the totals, and if most or all of the Michigan uncommitted are allocated to Obama, and if popular estimations from caucus states without popular votes are included, and if one takes into account the likely 200K to 300K Clinton will gain in the popular vote between now and June 3rd, the difference between the candidates will be very small, and also quite debatable. In the end, this is 4,415 separate, small campaigns to elect delegates, and those delegates will decide the nomination. It looks like Obama has enough, but barring a surprise victory in Pennsylvania, I don't expect him to seal it up until June. Clinton dropping out after a big Obama sweep on May 6th is possible, but with West Virginia on May 13th, and Kentucky on May 20th, I won't hold my breath.
Update: Post edited to reflect new polls that now show Obama ahead in Indiana.
Is it April 9th where you are? I think it might be April 10th where I am, but I'm not sure. Anyway, here are the latest polling averages are delegate projections:
The "vacant" column indicates three superdelegates-to-be who have endorsed Obama, but whom are not technically superdelegates yet (vacant Illinois DNC spot, vacant SEIU DNC spot, vacant MD-04 congressional spot). The Michigan and Florida columns add in the superdelegates who have declared, but leave the rest undecided (or, more accurately, "undetermined.") Since we know that Michigan and Florida will be seated, but we just don't know who those delegates will be, that seems like a reasonable way to include those delegations in the count for now.
It may seem strange to be posting a delegate count update from Israel, but people are even talking about it over here. This is a truly global primary.
I have decided to discontinue my personal pledged delegate count, and just go with the pledged delegate count from the Green Papers from now on, since I agree with their count 100%. For superdelegates, I will still be using Democratic Convention Watch, which is the best source out there. Although it was not a factor in choosing these two sources, it is kind of cool that two DIY sources are the best places to go for accurate delegate counts on the 2008 nomination campaign. Who needs big media, anyway? Here are the latest totals:
The Green Papers pledged delegates, plus my superdelegate detailed count, give overall totals of Obama 1,682--1,524 Clinton. With a magic number of 2,022.5 (the two vacancies reduce the magic number by 1), Obama needs only 41.5%, or 340.5, of the remaining 821 uncommitted delegates to win the nomination.
The delegate projection for the remaining primary and caucus states is as follows, based on current polling averages:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
State
Date
O %
C %
P. Del
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Pennsylvania
Apr 22
41.6%
48.6%
158
73
85
Guam
May 03
--
--
4
2
2
Indiana
May 06
44.3%
51.3%
72
33
39
North Carolina
May 06
51.3%
36.0%
115
66
49
West Virginia
May 13
24.5%
49.0%
28
9
19
Kentucky
May 20
29.0%
58.0%
51
17
34
Oregon
May 20
--
--
52
27
25
Puerto Rico
Jun 01
--
--
55
23
32
Montana
Jun 03
--
--
16
8
8
South Dakota
Jun 03
--
--
15
8
7
Total
June 10
--
--
566
266
300
Add this in to the above numbers, and it comes to a grand total of Obama 1,948--1,824 Clinton, with only the 255 remaining superdelegates to go. Obama would need 74.5, or just 29.3%, of the remaining superdelegates to reach the 2,022.5 magic number. At that point, he would be able to dictate what happens in Florida and Michigan. In order to have any chance, Clinton is going to need to significantly outperform current polls in remaining states, come up with a convincing new argument for superdelegates, and somehow finagle a good deal for Michigan and Florida. And even if she pulls all of that off, each aspect of which is unlikely, Obama will still be favored because he will have more than zero delegates in Michigan. In other words, it would be a shocker if Obama wasn't the nominee, and if the nomination campaign wasn't functionally over by the end of June.
Here are the latest polling averages in the remaining states and territories, along with crude delegate projections based on those averages:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
State
Date
O %
C %
P. Del
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Pennsylvania
Apr 22
41.8%
48.2%
158
74
84
Guam
May 03
--
--
4
2
2
Indiana
May 06
43.0%
52.0%
72
33
39
North Carolina
May 06
51.3%
36.0%
115
66
49
West Virginia
May 13
24.5%
49.0%
28
9
19
Kentucky
May 20
29.0%
58.0%
51
17
34
Oregon
May 20
--
--
52
27
25
Puerto Rico
Jun 01
--
--
55
23
32
Montana
Jun 03
--
--
16
8
8
South Dakota
Jun 03
--
--
15
8
7
Total
June 10
--
--
566
267
299
These numbers provide two key insights:
First, Obama clearly still has some work to do. While dropping a net of 32 pledged delegates to Clinton in the remaining states would hardly be crippling to his campaign, it also wouldn't be great. In terms of general election momentum, the last thing Obama needs is to stumble home to the nomination, with Clinton winning the majority of the remaining states and delegates. In terms of winning the nomination, Obama also doesn't want to give Clinton any light at all, especially considering how the narrative is starting to focus on her slim hopes to win the nomination. The Obama goal should be to at least split the remaining delegates, and pull out victories in Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. Not only would that close off any possible remaining paths to the nomination for Clinton, it would also shield Obama from any negative momentum that might accrue by falling backward into the nomination.
Second, these numbers show just how inaccurate it is to measure progress in the campaign by looking at who won what states. Specifically, even though Clinton is projected to win both Pennsylvania and Indiana by decent margins right now, in the April 22nd to May 6th period she is only projected to gain one pledged delegate on Obama. This is because, in terms of delegates, how much someone wins a state by matters far more than just winning a state, and Obama is way ahead in North Carolina. In fact, winning congressional districts is actually way more important than winning states, given that 65% of pledged delegates are determined at the congressional district level, while only 35% are determined at the statewide level. Further, which congressional districts you win matter just as much as which states a candidate wins since, just like states, the number of delegates in each district varies significantly (the range is from a low of three delegates to a high of ten delegates). Yet further, it also matters how much you win congressional districts by, since different amounts of delegates are handed out for different levels of victory. In other words, the strategy for winning delegates in the Democratic nomination campaign has little or no bearing on the strategy to win the Electoral College, making electability arguments on who won what primary state a truly pointless apples and oranges exercise. We might as well argue which NBA player would do better in the NFL based on their basketball skills.
As far as ending the nomination campaign goes, Obama is 8% away from doing that in Pennsylvania, and 10% away from doing that in Indiana. Given the direction of the campaign and Obama's current resource advantage, both seem tantalizing within reach. However, even though I will be voting for him tonight at my local Democratic Party ward meeting, I will still remain utterly shocked if he is able to win my home state of Pennsylvania.
In this scenario, Clinton would also be projected to win the remaining add-on delegates 7-5. This leads to a grand total of Obama 1,941.5-1,831.5 Clinton, with 255 superdelegates, five currently vacant superdelegates, and the Florida and Michigan delegations remaining. Without Michigan and Florida, Obama would need only 80 of the 255 superdelegates, or 31.4%, to win the nomination. Even with Florida included as is, Obama would still lead by 65 delegates. It is only when a Michigan delegation with zero Obama delegates is added in that Clinton is able to catch up and forced a brokered convention.
Overall, while the Indiana poll has improved the situation for Clinton, her path the nomination is still dependent on a Michigan delegation that shuts Obama out entirely, and the Obama-heavy credentials committee will never approve such a delegation (nor should they). The main improvement that the Indiana poll shows for Clinton is that she might now have an outside chance of winning the popular vote. If she can snag big wins in Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico, and deny Obama a measurable popular vote victory anywhere outside of North Carolina, she might just be able to close the 800,000 vote gap. If she pulls that off, the momentum will be almost entirely in her direction, she might perform better in general election polls than McCain, and have a real argument that superdelegates would consider (popular vote victory, momentum and general election performance puts a lot on the table). It is a real longshot, given that she is heavily out-resourced and that the momentum is currently with Obama, but I will admit that it is not entirely impossible.
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