One of the more common refrains from both the media and Democratic establishment is about how the country is increasingly craving bi-partisanship and ideological moderation. The Los Angeles Times featured a story this morning that is an excellent example of this refrain. Based entirely on campaign rhetoric and a few anecdotes that centered mainly on about stem cells and nuclear non-proliferation, the article stated, as fact, that the country had reached a centrist consensus, moderate politicians are thriving, and people are sick of both partisanship and anything except middle-of-the-road ideology. Here is the passage, which somehow missed ending up in the op-ed section:
The centrist consensus on many issues underscores an important dynamic in the 2008 political climate: At a time of growing frustration with gridlock and partisan bickering in Washington, politicians with a pragmatic, middle-course tack are thriving.
Perhaps the problem that pundits, journalists and politicians face when they frequently declare the country as growing tired of ideology and partisanship and as having reached a centrist, bi-partisan consensus, is that these pundits, journalists and politicians don't actually know that there are quantitative, macro-measurements of public mood in America. Rather than just basing arguments about the public mood on anecdotes and selective reading of polls and election results, their arguments would be better served if, at their core, they were supported by quantitative studies that demonstrated the central thesis of the article. You know, the sort of writing people were taught to do during their first year of college.
If you are a pundit or a politician, and you intend to claim that the country is sick of partisanship and ideology, and is demanding bi-partisan moderates on a large scale, let me help you out. Before making such a claim, in order to avoid running afoul of reality, you can simply check to see if any of the following six, macro-political trends are actually taking place:
- Are the number of Americans who do not self-identify with either major party increasing as a percentage of the population?
- Are the number of Americans who self-identify as moderates increasing as a percentage of the population?
- Is the national policy mood of the public becoming more moderate?
- Is third-party performance improving in general elections?
- Are moderates challengers of both parties defeating incumbent non-moderates in primary elections?
- Are moderates challengers of both parties defeating non-moderates incumbents of the opposing party in general elections?
All of these trends can be measured using quantitative, scientific studies of public opinion, voting records, and election results. If four or more of these six trends are taking place, then it can indeed be safely stated that the country is becoming less partisan and more moderate. If either one or zero of these trends is currently underway, then it can be safely said that the country is not moving toward increasing moderation and non-bi-anti-post-partisanship. If two or three are the case, then the overall trend is debatable.
For the first part of this series I look through the best available source of quantitative data to determine the current viability of each of the first three trends. Those trends all focus on measuring public opinion, while the second three measure election results. I will finish the series tomorrow, and part one in the extended entry.
|
STATE BLOGS
