As those of you who read my stuff know, I have been haranguing people like a madman in recent weeks that this thing isn't over, that we should never let up, that we should not be cocky or take anything for granted. And I will say down to the last day that anything could happen, that we don't know what the Bradley effect will be on the Presidential level, that we should keep pouring our heart out until the very last hour. But even I am starting to listen for the sounds of the Fat Lady singing. Even I am reaching for the fork to stick in this turkey.
Barring a truly catastrophic last-minute event or mistake, or a Bradley effect on the Presidential level completely beyond the realm of expectation, this thing is done. To those pundits who said this was McCain's best debate, or that he held his own with Obama, I have to ask: what were you smoking during last night's debate? Obama crushed McCain in that debate, adding to the cumulative effect of the two other Presidential debates and the VP debate: the Democrats are calm and steady and talking about the things that matter to the American people; John McCain is, in the words of Democracy Corps focus group participants last night, a "grumpy old man" (must have read my blog post the other day) and "a jerk." Obama won over undecideds and even McCain leaners last night in all the surveys and focus groups that were done, dominated in his responses to McCain's attacks, and dominated in his discussion of the most important issues, especially health care and the economy.
So with this thing moving so much in our direction, here's what I would do if I were running the Obama campaign:
I think after the election, John McCain should sign up for a blockbuster movie deal, Grumpy Old Men 3. You know, the 3 is a play on words because there used to be only 2 grumpy old men, but now there are 3. It would be a regular laff riot. The only problem is that Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau are dead, which might make it less funny, but I'm sure McCain is up to the challenge.
Man, he was bad. In terms of that whole looking Presidential thing, he really is in sorry shape.
Obama, again, was solid, confident, steady. I'm very happy this morning overall.
My only complaint is that I still think Obama needs to be more aggressive in driving the debate and pounding on McCain. There were too many "McCain was the aggressor" headline today. As I've said before: don't hit back, hit first. But overall on the 27th day out, it's feeling more like a big win than a nailbiter on Election Day.
Obama was very solid, very steady in the last debate. He reassured people about his knowledge and judgment, which is great. Unlike some folks, I didn't even mind all of the nice talk towards McCain (although I thought he did too much of it), as I think it made him look like a nice Midwestern boy who was kind to his crazy uncle. But he also pulled his punches at a couple of key times.
In this debate, he can pretty much end this race. McCain is teetering right now, Obama has the chance to end this thing right now. Classic example from very early in the first debate: when McCain was talking about the need to hold people accountable on the economy, Obama's follow-up was soft and non-specific. What he should have done was nail him right there: "John, if we need to hold people accountable, why not you? You helped your economic adviser Phil Gramm de-regulate the banks. You helped confirm all these awful appointees. Where's the accountability for you?"
Another example: the format in that debate allowed you to be aggressive. When he was explaining his policy to take out Osama even if it pissed off the Pakistanis, he should have just done that simple explanation, and turned to McCain and said: "John, you don't believe we should take Osama out if we have the chance?"
Do not be cautious, do not hold back in this debate because you are ahead. Democrats have a history of getting cautious when they get ahead, but coasting and playing prevent defense is going to endanger your lead. Finish him off. Take it to him. Do not let him up off the mat. His record on economics is horrendous, nail him with it. Whenever he tries to distract people with the Ayers stuff or the Jeremiah Wright stuff, push back hard and make him defend a sleazy campaign while the economy is going down the tubes. Your momentum allows you to finish him off: just do it.
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