Update: Obama receives ten Edwards pledged delegates, and is now only 15 delegates from the nomination. Obama will win the nomination when polls close in Montana tonight at 10 p.m.
The AP reported earlier today that Obama has clinched the nomination. However, a closer look at the piece reveals that the AP was simply reporting what many of us have known for months: Obama has not yet, but will eventually reach the magic number of delegates. This is because the AP is counting private endorsements of Obama, along with a minimum of 14 delegates from tonight's primaries, in their totals.
Since I am something of a minor media figure when it comes to delegate counting, what the AP story revealed to me is that there will be a race among all media outlets to be the first to declare that Obama has reached the magic number of delegates. So, I'll join in the fray myself, using this post as a countdown thread. By my reckoning, Obama has 26.525.015.08.5 9.0 delegates to go.
For this count, I am using the Green Papers pledged delegate count, which has been the most up to date and accurate pledged delegate count during the entire campaign. For the superdelegates, I am using the Obama campaign count. My reasoning is that no one probably has a more up to date count of the superdelegates than the two campaigns themselves, but only the Obama campaign has a publicly available number. For the magic number, I am using Democratic Convention Watch which has been the authoritative source for overall delegate counting this entire campaign season.
Obama reach the magic number tonight at ether 10.01 p.m. when polls close in Montana, or at 9:01 p.m. when polls close in South Dakota. I'll update this thread as more superdelegate endorsements come in, and start live-blogging returns tonight at 8 p.m., eastern.
There are some mixed messages today from the Clinton campaign, contradicting several earlier reports that Clinton would probably suspend her run for the White House either tomorrow or Wednesday. For example, I just heard the Clinton campaign insist that there have been no talks between Obama and Clinton about dropping out. Also, today the campaign said the following:
On the plane just now flying from Rapid City, S.D., to Sioux Falls, S.D., campaign spokesman Mo Elleithee maintained that Clinton is not getting out of the race tomorrow night -- or anytime soon.
Elleithee said as long as there is still no nominee (and incidentally he wouldn't say the campaign acknowledges a delegate number at which there will be a nominee), the senator will be making the case on the phone to committed and uncommitted superdelegates and uncommitted delegates.
He repeatedly said there will be "an ongoing dialogue" with committed and undeclared superdelegates.(...)
When asked about reports the campaign has invited top donors to Tuesday night's celebration, and whether that signals an end to the campaign, Elleithee said donors are invited in every state the night of the primary and this is nothing new.
He insisted the e-mail to advance staff offering flights to New York or home was just to give them an option as "this phase of the campaign" wraps up.
That sounds a bit more like the fighting Clinton campaign we have all come to know, right? Well, it doesn't seem like it will matter. For starters, Obama is only 40.5 delegates from clinching the nomination, according to both Democratic Convention Watch, and will probably pick up another 18 tomorrow in South Dakota and Montana. Further, with only 22.5 delegates needed. as many as 34 members of the House will endorse Obama either tomorrow or Wednesday:
Buzz on the Capitol Hill suggests that has many as 34 of the undeclared superdelegates residing in the House will endorse Obama by Wednesday. As many as 18 of these 34 -- many of them elected to Congress in the last four years -- will come out for Obama tomorrow so he can edge closer to his magic number before the vote counting ends in South Dakota and Montana.
Most of the seventeen Democratic senators who have remained uncommitted throughout the primaries will endorse Barack Obama for president this week, CNN has learned.
Sources familiar with discussions between Obama supporters and these senators tell CNN's Gloria Borger that the senators will wait until after the South Dakota and Montana primaries to announce their support for Obama.
So, Obama will definitely reach the magic number of 2,117 either tomorrow or Wednesday. And despite the defiant attitude from the spokesperson above, Clinton campaign national co-chair Tom Vilsack just said that Obama will win in the next two days:
Tom Vilsack, the former Iowa governor and a national co-chairman of Clinton's campaign, said Sunday: "It does appear to be pretty clear that Senator Obama is going to be the nominee. After Tuesday's contests, she needs to acknowledge that he's going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him."
So yes, it will be over on Wednesday. I think the primary was, on balance, very positive for the party. Still, much healing needs to be done, and it won't be accomplished overnight, nor will it be done through simple gestures. However, I am sensing a change in tone already, and feel as though we are moving in the right direction.
Former president Bill Clinton dropped a hint Monday that the end might be nigh for his wife Hillary's dogged campaign for the Democratic White House nomination, according to reports.
"I want to say also that this may be the last day I'm ever involved in a campaign of this kind," the former president told Clinton supporters in South Dakota, ABC and NBC reported on their news websites.
The end is nigh. I can really feel a sense of history building.
According to DCW he now has 1656.5 pledged delegates. Add to that the 304.5 superdelegate endorsements and the 6 members of the "Pelosi club" and he's up to 1967. He should take 40+ in the remaining three contests according to Chris's last estimate. But that won't be enough to put Obama above the 2025 threshold.
So, between now and the early June primaries we need at least 20 uncommitted superdelegates to endorse Obama so that voters and not superdelegates are the ones to push him past the clinching number. Given the pace of endorsements in the last 2 weeks you might assume that will be easy but I don't. Most of those that have remained mum are either required to be neutral by state or national party rules OR have made a political calculation that neutral is their best choice. They must be convinced that neutral is no longer a safe choice.
This is the final nomination at a glance post that I intend to make. Tomorrow, the 2008 Presidential Election Forecast, which I will update just about every day between now and November, will replace it
The Democratic nomination campaign is over, and there is no need to keep a running, updated count anymore. Massive pro-Obama superdelegate movement, combined with the John Edwards endorsement, were the final straws. At this point, Obama now holds a commanding lead, even if Florida and Michigan are seated exactly as the Clinton campaign hopes they are.
* Two Edwards delegates in Florida have now indicated they will support Obama
Even if Michigan and Florida are seated based entirely on the results of the January "primaries," which is extremely unlikely, then Obama leads by 135 delegates even without the remaining 25 Edwards delegates and 19 Michigan uncommitted delegates added to his total. There is simply no longer any path for Clinton to reach the nomination. This is probably why Obama is poised to declare victory on Tuesday night:
Senator Barack Obama has chosen to spend Tuesday night not in Kentucky or Oregon, the two states that will be holding their primaries that day, or even at his home in Chicago. Instead, Mr. Obama's staff announced on Saturday, he will be returning to Iowa, where he won the Democratic caucuses way back in January and has at least two good reasons to revisit now.
Much more than nostalgia seems to have motivated that decision. If things continue to go as well for Mr. Obama this week as they have so far this month, with a romp in North Carolina, a strong showing in Indiana and daily growth in his support among party superdelegates, he could actually end up with enough pledged delegates to proclaim, without fear of contradiction, that he is now the Democratic nominee for president.
They should change the "could" to "will" in that article. As a result, it will be exciting to live blog Tuesday's returns. Here are a few more notes on the end of the nomination at a glance series:
On Tuesday night, Obama will also be able to secure victory in a metric that has long been important to me: the popular vote. Even if Michigan and Florida are included in measures of popular participation, notions to which I am actually quite open because no other delegate selection events were made available to the residents of those two states, about 260,000 more participants in Democratic delegate selection events preferred Obama to Clinton. While the uncommitted vote in Michigan and lack of popular totals in four caucus states make a final count impossible, exit polls and voter turnout estimates among those groups provide conclusive, incontrovertible evidence that more participants in Democratic delegate selection events supported Obama than Clinton. This metric might not matter to you, but it even with all the imperfections in the process it does matter to me, and I am very glad that our presumptive nominee will finish ahead in this category. (See here and here for more information on this.)
Biggest Upset Ever. The enormity of Obama's accomplishment should not be underestimated. He succeeded where Ted Kennedy, Gary Hart and Bill Bradley failed: defeating a candidate with overwhelming institutional support to win the Democratic nomination. Going into this campaign, the Hillary Clinton had fifteen years of power building at her back, and Obama was able to edge her out in only fifteen months.
Best Nomination Campaign, Ever: The three nomination campaigns I remember when I was growing up were 1984, 1988 and 1992, all of which were lengthy, unpredictable contests with numerous twists and turns. The next three Democratic contests, 1996, 2000 and 2004 were incredibly weak and boring by comparison. For quite some time, I have longed for a campaign when everyone got to have their say, not just Iowa and New Hampshire. I longed for a real contest over who would lead the Democratic Party, and even though the ideological component of this campaign was mainly identity-based, we finally got another one of those. As a blogger and a political junkie, I wanted few things more than to be able to become a leading expert on delegates and delegate counting. Over the last four months, I have relished that role about as much as I have ever enjoyed anything as a blogger. Truly wonderful.
My curiosity got the better of me today and I went over to DemConWatch and counted up how many superdelegates have endorsed from each state or territory. A moving target, of course; the map already needs an update!
Here's the map:
Click to enlarge.
The color of the state shows the margin among declared superdelegates only. The size of the circles is proportional to the superdelegate lead in a given state.
Below, a comparison to the pledged delegate map, some trivia and an update to the county-by-county results map.
The Democratic party seems resigned to losing in November in order to save the party.
As an observer, Hillary Clinton is the stronger general election candidate. Yet, the risk for Democrats in nominating Clinton, who would be perceived as "stealing" the nomination from Obama, is the dealignment of black voters from the Democratic party. (Anecdotally, my brother, who lives near Philly, said he would walk away from the party if Obama was not the nominee. I believe him.)
I began wondering tonight if there would be a catalyzing effect of the results which would lead to a number of superdelegates endorsing Obama and closing out the contest. It seemed reasonable, considering that, if there were questions about whether the contest was over or not, this question has been answered. And so why would superdelegates hold back?
I've started asking around among the people I know that traffic in the world of elected officials and superdelegates, and there seem to be two basic pressures at work. First of all, most undeclared superdelegates are predisposed to back Obama in the first place. They didn't after all back Clinton at the beginning, when most pro-Clinton people would have found it easiest. Clinton runs a pretty aggressive and effective insider operation, and was wooing superdelegates early and often. You'd get calls with Clinton herself, and she'd know your family, your business, and your problems. Harold Ickes might call you a few days before the call with Clinton and tell you to expect a call from Bill or Hillary.
Moreover, early on, with donors, the deal was that if you were with Clinton early, you were going to be rewarded. If not, you wouldn't. There's no reason to think it was that much different with superdelegates. And when she appeared to be on top, why not join the other Clinton boosters? There's a reason, either caution or a preference for another type of candidate. This means that the universe of superdelegates was already Obama predisposed, and the closing superdelegate gap, where Obama would gain a few more than Clinton every day or two, bore this out.
Still, there are counterpressures. A good number of undeclared superdelegates (and you can see a list at DemConWatch) come from states or areas with a heavily Obama favoring local populace or activists who love Obama, but they are still undeclared. Why is this? It's not fear of Clinton, it's because both Clinton's have given enormous amounts of help to party officials all over the country. Are you a county or state chair and need a special guest for your annual state fundraising event? Hillary or Bill Clinton would come, Barack Obama may not have even been in office yet, though he has also not been as aggressive in terms of party-building. HillPAC was distributing checks for years to candidates without asking for anything in return. Bill would go around and do commercials and events and record robocalls for every major and minor candidate in the country.
Each of these favors matters. Remember, Hillary Clinton understood the value of infrastructure, strongly helping the founding of Media Matters, CAP, and a variety of progressive institutions to fight the right. She is also a superb strategist, and understood, like Nixon did, the need to cultivate favors from everyone everywhere when possible. And she did. Obama's superdelegate operation is less velvety and hands-on, and he does not have the same legacy of party building or favors to draw on. So that's what's happening right now. There are a lot of superdelegates that are inclined to support Obama, but feel uncomfortable in doing so. If pushed into the open, they will go out for Obama. I don't get the sense, and the uncommitted superdelegates I know confirm this, that there is an undercurrent for Clinton anywhere among the supers.
It's been 10 days since we renewed the call for uncommitted superdelegates to start making their intentions clear (Chris Bower's post and another from me).
Since then, 20 of (then) 240 uncommitted superdelegates have decided, a sharp increase in the rate of endorsements. In fact, only about 20 had decided in the previous 4 weeks (not counting add-on supers). Coincidence? Perhaps. But keeping up the pressure on these uncommitted superdelegates seems like a good idea. It will bring greater clarity to the race and it will allow voters, rather than party insiders, to push the winning candidate over the (non-MI/FL) threshold of 2024.5.
This morning brings another superdelegate to Obama, Kalyn Free. Several more superdelegates from Indiana and North Carolina should endorse after those states have their say tomorrow.
The Obama campaign has started to keep a running count of superdelegates on its results page. While it does not provide a list of the superdelegate endorsements, the total is still a useful public service. Also, I can understand why they wouldn't want to list the individual superdelegates, given that any errors could cause real problems from them. At this point, I'm fine that they only provide totals.
Some might object that I am not accurately portraying the position of the Obama campaign on Michigan and Florida. While I list the Obama campaign arguing for a 184-184 split of the 368 delegates from those two states, the results page on the Obama campaign website lists each state as receiving zero delegates. However, this is a contradiction from the Obama campaign, not an error on my part. While the campaign lists each state with zero delegates, it has also stated that it wants to see Michigan and Florida both seated at the convention, but with a 50-50 split of delegates. So, the campaign is arguing for 184-184 in some places, and 0-0 in others. Since we all know that both states will be seated at the convention, I will stick with 184-184 for now.
Clinton has actually picked up a couple of delegates recently, one in Pennsylvania (now projected at 85-73 by Green Papers) and one half in American Samoa (now projected at Clinton 2-1 Obama by Green Papers), for a net of three delegates.
I have also separated out Michigan and Florida in these tables so that they make more sense. The 45 remaining delegates from Michigan will be chosen on May 17th at the state party convention, I believe. At that convention, according to her campaign's count, Clinton will pick up twenty-six more delegates and net at least seven. After that, the Rules and Bylaws Committee will hold a hearing on Michigan and Florida on May 31st. If nothing changes from that meeting, then the Credentials Committee takes over the matter.
Here are the future delegate projections, with the state projections based on current polls:
This brings us to the following, dueling projections:
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Obama Total
2,140
2,002
19
211
2,208.5
Clinton Total
2,048.5
1,992.5
37
335
2,208.5
Clearly, under the Obama count, the nomination campaign is effectively over. Obama is still favored even under the Clinton count, since he would only need 46.9% of the remaining delegates to reach the magic number.
Clinton's path to the nomination involves a combination of two rather unlikely steps. First, force a the campaign all the way to the convention by preventing Obama from reaching the magic number under Clinton's most favorable count. This will require both forcing an extremely favorable deal on Michigan and Florida and significantly improving upon her current projected delegate totals in remaining states. Second, it will require her to destroy Obama as a viable general election candidate to such a degree that Obama superdelegates actually start shifting to Clinton. To date, not a single Obama superdelegate has switched to Clinton, so once again this seems extremely unlikely.
The nomination campaign is taking a while, but it certainly seems like Obama is headed to victory, probably sometime in mid-June.
Another ten--count 'em, ten--superdelegates have either made endorsements today, been named today, or switched their endorsements today. Here is a run-down:
That covers another eight superdelegates, breaking 5-3 in favor of Obama. Adding the three Illinois supers who will be officially chosen on Monday, that makes for another eight Obama supers and three Clinton supers to add onto Democratic Convention Watch's totals. With a current count of Clinton 265-244 Obama, that creates a grand total of Clinton 268-252 Obama, with 274 undecided. Throw on the Pelosi Club delegates, and the totals are Clinton 267-258 Obama, with 269 either undecided or not yet named.
At this point, it seems like only a matter of time before Obama takes the lead in superdelegates. I would be very surprised if he doesn't lead in superdelegates before June 1st.
This seems significant. A former Clinton endorser and former chair of the DNC (appointed by Bill Clinton) and former chair of the Indiana Democratic Party, has switched sides. Joe Andrew is endorsing Barack Obama and is encouraging other superdelegates to make the switch.
In an Indianapolis press conference he will so in order to urge his "fellow superdelegates across the nation to heal the rift in our party and unite behind Barack Obama," as he writes in a letter he's sending to superdelegates.
Andrew writes he's switching because "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists John McCain....While I was hopeful that a long, contested primary season would invigorate our party, the polls show that the tone and temperature of the race is now hurting us. John McCain, without doing much of anything, is now competitive against both of our remaining candidates. We are doing his work for him and distracting Americans from the issues that really affect all of our lives."
DemConWatch now has the superdelegate totals at: Clinton: 260, Obama: 243. One month ago it was 246-212 so things are moving fast. More than a dozen superdelegates have been added to Obama or Clinton in the last 4 days. Our recent calls for superdelegate action appear to have been heard.
Which leads to the following, dueling projections:
Democratic Nomination Delegate Projection
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Obama Count
2,161
2,017
18
219
2,208
Clinton Count
2,076
2.003
37
299
2,208
A few thoughts on these numbers:
Clinton has not gained any ground among pledged delegates in March and April combined. Here is the tally, according to Green Papers:
PA: Clinton +10
Iowa 2nd and Third Tier: Obama +9
Colorado 2nd Tier: Clinton +2
Mississippi: Obama +7
Wyoming: Obama +2
Vermont: Obama +3
Texas: Obama +3
Rhode Island: Clinton +5
Ohio: Clinton +7
That results in a net gain of zero for both candidates in March and April. Throw in Michigan, and Obama actually gained 31 pledged delegates.
Obama has netted 28 superdelegates during March and April, according to Democratic Convention Watch. At the start of March, Clinton led 240-193 among supers, but as of this writing her lead has been cut to 261-242. That is a net gain of 28 superdelegates, and 28 overall delegates, for Obama over March and April. In other words, overall Obama is actually gaining ground in terms of delegates, despite the perception that he is stumbling.
After Tuesday, there will only be 217 pledged delegates left, plus 45 at the Michigan state party convention on May 17th. This means that unless there is a huge superdelegate rush over the next week, in seven days more superdelegates will be left than pledged delegates. May 6th is thus really the last time that voters, rather than superdelegates, will be in the spotlight during the campaign.
There seems to be a conventional wisdom forming that Clinton needs to win Indiana and "come close" in North Carolina, which I presume to mean at least closer than her nine-point victory in Pennsylvania. Given that she has not made up any ground since Wisconsin, and given how few pledged delegates remain, that certainly seems fair as a minimum requirement for Clinton. An argument could even be made that she needs to win North Carolina, given her current deficit.
As near as I can tell, the basic rationale behind the CW is that Clinton will be able to start making up significant ground in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. So, if (with the exception of Oregon and North Carolina) she can continue a string of victories straight from Pennsylvania to the end, and get a favorable Michigan and Florida ruling at he end of May, then she might be close enough, and have enough momentum, for superdelegates to put her over the top. However, if she gets waxed on May 6th, none of that matters.
At the very least, it is something of relief that nine superdelegates (split 5-4 in favor of Obama) have endorsed over the last two days, and that Obama could plausibly deliver a CW-knockout blow with a sweep on May 6th. For those of us who are looking for the campaign to come to a resolution in either May or June, that is very welcome news.
After spending a lot of time thinking about this over the past few days, I have decided that the only accruate way to count delegates is to present two separate counts: the Obama campaign count, and the Clinton campaign count. Ultimately, because this is a political process rather than an objective, mathematical one, the only accurate counts are the ones claimed by both campaigns. And so, here are the two counts.
Obama Campaign Delegate Count
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Pledged
1,494
1,333
18
408
1,627
Super
234
256
0
304
--
MI + FL
184
184
0
0
NA
Total
1,912
1,773
18
712
2,208
The pledged delegate totals are taken from the results center on the Obama campaign website. The superdelegate totals are taken from Democratic Convention Watch, although I have asked the Obama campaign if it will provide a superdelegate total of its own. The Florida and Michigan totals are based on a 50-50 split of the two states, as proposed by the Obama campaign. I have also asked the Obama campaign for more clarity on exactly what it is proposing in Michigan and Florida.
Clinton Campaign Delegate Count
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Pledged
1,491
1,336
18
408
1,627
Super
234
256
0
304
--
MI + FL
103
167
18
80
NA
Total
1,828
1,759
36
792
2,208
The pledged delegate totals are taken from Green Papers, although I have asked the Clinton campaign if they intend to publish a public delegate total of their own. The superdelegate totals are taken from Democratic Convention Watch, although I have asked the Clinton campaign if it will provide a superdelegate total of its own. Considering the Clinton campaign's argument that Michigan and Florida should be seated as is, delegate totals from the two states are based on the result of the nullified Florida primary (105C-67O-13E), the Michigan district conventions (47C-31O-5E), and current superdelegate endorsements from the two states. The 80 "remaining" delegates come from the 14 Florida superdelegates, 21 Michigan superdelegates, and 45 Michigan pledged delegates are still to be determined according to this argument.
***
So, we now have two competing delegate totals. The Obama total should be taken as useful indication of when the Obama campaign will declare victory, while the Clinton campaign total should be taken as a good indicator of whether they think a convention challenge will have any success. If the Clinton campaign can't win even according to its own delegate argument, then it is implicitly stating it can't win the nomination even if it doesn't say so in public. By the same token, if Obama has not reached 2,208 according to its own arguments, then it is implicitly admitting that the nomination is not yet warpped up.
It is important to note both that neither delegate total is the "real" total, and that there is no "real" total. There is no objective delegate math, since the credentialing of delegates is controlled by the two campaigns in a political process on the credentials committee, and since delegates are able to switch allegiances if they so desire (though extremely few, will actually do so). What will happen is that both campaigns will fight to make their respective delegate totals reality, and more than likely the outcome will end up somewhere in between. However, Obama not only leads in both delegate totals, but he will also have more political power to make his delegate total a reality, given that he will hold a plurality on the credentials committee, and probably a majority (but at least a plurality) of unchallenged delegates on the convention floor. The situation does not look very good for Clinton at all but, even according to the Obama campaign's own count, he is still 296 delegates short of the nomination.
(UPDATE: A superdelegate has added her thoughts to this debate. See the comments. - promoted by tremayne)
A month ago we set to work on figuring out how the uncommitted superdelegates would ultimately vote. Now it is time for an update and a call to action. I would like to echo Chris's sentiments from yesterday, he said:
The 228 uncommitted superdelegates who have already voted in the nomination campaign but not publicly endorsed are acting irresponsibly. These are people who can help bring a resolution, or at lest clarity, to the process, but who are choosing not to do so for reasons one can only guess.
Chris called for greater transparency and that's exactly what we'll do with this diary. And there's something you can do to help get these delegates off the fence. They are all sensitive to public sentiment, even the DNC members who are not office holders. So far, they have been hearing from the Obama and Clinton campaigns but not people closer to them who want them to decide one way or the other. They have good reasons for staying neutral which I'll discuss on the jump but those reasons will quickly disappear in the face of public pressure (which we need to ramp up). Follow along for a detailed projection/prediction for how the superdelegates will vote (preview: Obama 126, Clinton 114).
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