Posted 11/12/2003 8:17 AM
Global warming could worsen California wildfires
LAKE ARROWHEAD, Calif. (AP) - Drought- and beetle-ravaged trees in this mountain community stick up like matchsticks in the San Bernardino National Forest, bypassed by the fires still smoldering, but left like kindling for the next big blaze.
Welcome to the future.
Fires that charred nearly three-quarters of a million acres could presage increasingly severe fire danger as global warming weakens more forests through disease and drought, experts warn.
"You're really going to increase the chances of and prevalence of fire," said Susan Ustin, a professor of environmental and resource science at the University of California, Davis.
Warmer, windier weather and longer, drier summers would mean higher firefighting costs and greater loss of lives and property, according to researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the U.S. Forest Service.
Both the number of out-of-control fires and the acreage burned are likely to increase - more than doubling losses in some regions, they say in a study set for publication in the scientific journal Climatic Change.
While the study examined Northern California, "the concern for Southern California would be much higher," because that region is drier for longer periods, said researcher Evan Mills of the Lawrence Berkeley lab.
Windier weather could bring to Northern California a variation of the desert Santa Ana winds that whipped the Southern California blazes into firestorms, said co-author Margaret Torn, also a Lawrence Berkeley researcher.
The researchers project at least a 50% increase in out-of-control fires in the south San Francisco Bay area and a 125% increase in the Sierra Nevada foothills, with a more than 40% increase in the area burned. The state's northern coast saw no significant change under the computer model and conditions used in the study.