Username: Lester
PersonId: 1051
Created: Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 18:06
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Exit polls versus pre-election ARG poll.

by: Lester

Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 02:38

More fun with numbers.  Here is a comparison of the Jan 7 ARG poll breakdown with the exit poll:

  . . . . . .  ARG  . .  Exit Poll
  . . . .  HRC BO  . HRC BO  .  Diff
Men . . .25  44  29   40  -19->-11
Women 35  37  46   34  -2 -> 12
Dem . . .34  37  45   34  -3  -> 12
Indep . . 25  44  31   41  -19->-10

Clinton did much better with women and Democrats than expected, but the interesting thing is that Obama didn't drop that severely -- rather, Clinton's boost seems to have come at the expense of other candidates.  Also interesting, ARG's likely voters were broken down as 63% Dem, 37% Indep, whereas the actual voter breakdown was 54% - 44%.  So although Obama didn't do as well with independents as predicted, there were more independents to ameliorate that.

Other interesting tidbits from the exit poll below.  These are just Clinton vs Obama numbers that caught my eye, though it has no particular bearing on the pre-election poll screw-ups.  The oddest thing were the Iraq numbers...

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