Open Left

your math doesn't work out

Your scenario:
207R
228D, incl 25 BD
D+21

In this, if you have 100% unity from all non-blue dog Dems, you need 15 blue dogs (60% not 80%) to get to 218.

Scenario 2, flip 15 GOP to Blue Dog:
192R
243D, incl 40 BD
D+51

Again, you still only have 203 non-blue dog Democrats, and to get to 218, you still need 15 blue dogs.  Maybe that task is easier since you now have 40 of them to pick from, but they still have a real veto over legislation.  You won't pass your bill if the Blue Dogs oppose it.

Unless you increase the number of progressives, you cannot decrease the influence of blue dogs.  

The D minus R "edge" figure you cite, only matters if the Blue Dogs were to abstain.  I don't see that happening.

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by: Daniel De Groot @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 21:28:54 PM CDT