Obama's Domination Of Democratic Opinion

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Dec 15, 2008 at 12:31



Here is a quick review of some of the oh-so-controversial positions I have argued on Open Left over the past two weeks:
  1. Everyone has an ideology.
  2. Governmental personnel have an impact on governmental policy.
  3. There was internal disagreement in the Obama transition on keeping Gates as Secretary of Defense.
None of these should be controversial positions. Really, they should be nearly as straightforward as arguing that the federal government has three branches. However, all three have faced significant, though admittedly minority, dissent on Open Left. The reason for the controversy over such straightforward claims is that all three help create space for justifiable, left-wing criticism of Obama's transition. However, such criticism will not share the majority opinion of the Democratic Party not only on Obama's position, but really on anything, for a while. As such, even websites like will face such dissent.

Right now, whatever Obama comes out in favor of will become the majority position within the Democratic Party. If, over the next year, Obama says that we need to tear down the health care system and start from scratch with single-payer, then a majority of Democrats will quickly come to share that position. If, over the next year, Obama argues that it is time to invade Pakistan, then a majority of Democrats will come to favor that position. If he decides that Dick Cheney needs to be Secretary of the Interior, or Noam Chomsky needs to be Secretary of Education, a majority of Democrats will come to agree with him. Right now, whenever Obama makes his support clear on anything, that position will either remain, or become, the majority position for Democrats nationwide.

As I explain in the extended entry, having a majority of Democrats always agree with the leadership of the Democratic Party is a major change from the 2002-2008 era.

Chris Bowers :: Obama's Domination Of Democratic Opinion
One of the things that made the netroots so vital in the Democratic Party was that when it dissented from the leadership, it often did so while representing the majoritarian position in the Democratic Party. A majority of the netroots, like a majority of the Democratic Party, opposed the war in Iraq despite the wishes of the Democratic leadership of the time (Daschle and Gephardt). This led, in part, to the candidacy of Howard Dean, which, in 2003, posed a real threat to much of the Democratic establishment. Much the same can be said of Joe Lieberman, who lost the Democratic primary in Connecticut despite the public support of virtually every single Democratic member of the Senate. Lieberman's popularity among Democrats in Connecticut continued to drop, as 65% voted against him in the 2006 general election, and only 21% registered a unfavorable opinion of him in the latest poll on the subject. In this case, the netroots were the forerunners to a majority position within the Democratic rank and file. That was also the case with the Democratic Congress, whose performance the netroots had overwhelmingly soured on after the Iraq collapse in May and the FISA atrocity in August. Before long, 80% of Democrats also came to disapprove of the Democratic Congress, and Republicans came to approve of the Democratic Congress more than Democrats

Those days of the netroots leading a majority of rank and file Democrats in opposition to the decisions of the Democratic leadership are over. Now that Obama is at the head of the Democratic Party, what he says will be the majority positions. I don't know how long this will last, but it cold be several years. If Democratic electoral prospects continue to be bright, if Obama has a lot of success in passing legislation, and if the state of the country starts to improve, Democratic dissent against Obama will continue to be a minority position in the party. Given that I hope all of those things will happen, I suppose that not even I am looking forward to a point where left-wing criticism of the Obama administration is more widely tolerated.

As Daniel De Groot wrote a while back, people move toward the winners after an election. Obama won. As long as that keeps happening, the party will move toward him, not anyone or anything else. As long as Democrats are winning, intra-party reform movements will probably have a difficult time.

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yes (4.00 / 2)
When I wrote about Cheney's role in Obama's cabinet a few weeks ago there were a couple of comments that took it seriously and criticized me for criticizing Obama.

Not so straightforward, after all! (4.00 / 1)
Chris, you said that the points you've been arguing should be very cut-and-dry:
Really, they should be nearly as straightforward as arguing that the federal government has three branches.

Lest you forget, Dick Cheney is in a fourth branch of the federal government all to himself.  Maybe it's not as straightforward as you think!

John McCain <3 lobbyists


Good points, if a bit obvious....because an (4.00 / 3)
elected President always galvanizes the mainstream around him. The larger lingering question: what is the role of the netroots in the age of Obama? I can think of several important roles which are not all consistent:
1) rallying around the most progressive of Obama's policies to provide grassroots support
2) critics of decisions and strategies that may be mistakes (like just putting more troops into Afghanistan)
3) providing an alternative view within the Dem party to prevent a natural shift toward center-right solutions
4) provide a spine to Dem politics to keep shifting the Overton window and framing the debate

Others? Can we do several of these? Will we just be a giant, disorganized mass taking potshots without any real effect?  


I'd like to see (4.00 / 4)
a progressive primary opponent for Harry Reid. If we can find that candidate and help them mount a credible campaign that would send a strong national signal even if Reid wins.

[ Parent ]
I don't think a primary challenge is realistic... (0.00 / 0)
but I sure would like to see him removed as a majority leader replaced by someone with more ability and spine.  Who would that be? Durbin?

[ Parent ]
How? .. (4.00 / 1)
If we can find that candidate and help them mount a credible campaign that would send a strong national signal even if Reid wins.

Lieberman lost in the primary, yet what signal did that send?  Business as usual.  It didn't matter in the end.  They laughed because Lieberman snuck in the back door.  Who are you going to get to challenge Reid?  Yeah, his favorables suck right now.  Reid controls the Nevada state party.  Is there a Lamont type out in Nevada?  That's the only one you'll be able to get.


[ Parent ]
yeah (0.00 / 0)
I think the Lieberman near loss got the attention of all of his colleagues.

[ Parent ]
Wish I thought it could be done in Nevada ... (0.00 / 0)
but it would be tough. The Dems there are savoring becoming a majority and probably pretty centrist.

To be serious, a challenge needs the Culinary Workers Union. UNITE-HERE was the fount of the card-check movement. If Reid screws with the Employee Free Choice Act, would Culinary push him with a challenger?

Can it happen here?


[ Parent ]
coins and sidedness and such (4.00 / 2)
Another side to this is that Republican views on issues will also be defined by Obama's views - as an inversion of them. (As indeed was alreay happening during the campaign: for instance, when Obama says we should negotiate with Iran, Republicans say that that should be off the table and will sing parodic and bellicose songs about annihilating Persian lands; if Obama says we may have to strike Al Qaeda inside Pakistan, then Republicans will say that that is just uncouth, and we must maintain a more diplomatic attitude toward our Pakistani friends.)

It actually reminds me of Bush and the Republicans (0.00 / 0)
and how the Republican party would dutifully fall in line with whatever Bush's policies were, even when they were outrageously at odds with traditional Republican positions (e.g. nation-building and warrantless wiretapping). Obama has vastly better judgement than Bush but it's still a disturbing tendency.

Give us some credit (4.00 / 3)
If Obama invades a country based on lies, approves torture, cuts taxes big-time for the rich and runs the deficit up to record levels, pardons lawbreakers in his cabinet (ala Scooter Libby) and looks the other way as a city drowns, do you really think Democrats will fall in line and approve him?

Come on. Plenty of Dems were more than willing to criticize Clinton's infidelity, and that wasn't even CLOSE to matching Bush's crimes and misdeeds. Obama will be loved as long as he makes smart decisions, but Dems will have no patience for incompetence, betrayal or failure.


[ Parent ]
Democrats may have criticized Bill Clinton but only after Monica (4.00 / 1)
If Hillary had been elected,  though the netroots would still have an oppositional role, 1. because of the netroots attitude toward her and 2 was something she said at Netroots Nation in Aug 2007.  When asked what was different between now and 1993 re health care...she said that the netroots was different and would have an impact and the ability to forward the agenda.

The famous FDR story, is that he had a meeting with a left winger who had leftie proposals; he listened and as the leftie left the room..FDR said I like what you brought up, "...so now go out and make me do it."

Obama isn't asking for that. And I always fully expected that. Throughout the campaign he didn't ask for that...because he knew he could win without that...because he had the left anyway.  My encouragement at the moment is that the many of the things he is saying indicates that he is thinking big and transofromationally.  Will he do it.  will some of the more conventional personnel choices undermine....Can't tell yet.


[ Parent ]
Hopefully (4.00 / 1)
Hopefully, it won't be quite that bad. And I didn't mean to imply that it would, although clearly I did make that implication.

But really, if the leader of your party is creating victories for your party, people tend to support that person. Coaches rarely get fired after winning championships, for example. Unless, of course, that coach works for Jerry Jones.

Saxby Chambliss


[ Parent ]
Presidents and managers (0.00 / 0)
Both Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter had extremely tough times getting what they wanted from Congress at the start of their administrations.  Clinton passed his budget with exactly 218 votes in the House despite having 258 Democrats.  The Health Care Bill was never brought to a vote.  Jimmy Carter had much larger majorities to work with but instantly began feuding with Tip O'Neill.  O'Neill had fought bitterly against Richard Nixon and was not going to cede Congress's power and perqs to any President.  Work with him: OK;  work over him, no way.

Even in sports, nothing is automatic. Dick Williams was fired after managing the A's to consecutive World Series triumphs in 1972-73.  Billy Martin was fired during the 1978 season after winning the World Series in 1977.  Of course Casey Stengel was fired in 1960 after losing the World Series in 7 games despite winning 10 pennants and 7 world series in 12 years.  Four years later, the Yankees fired Yogi Berra after losing Game 7 0f the World Series and didn't go back for 12 years.


[ Parent ]
a moderate dissent: (4.00 / 4)
while i agree with much of what you are saying, it seems to me that you are understating the degree of opposition that obama has already received from factions that make up part of the democratic party.  i'm thinking especially of the resistance that coalesced around brennan's candidacy, in which civil libertarians, bloggers and psychologists (not that these groups are mutually exclusive) worked together to raise enough of a stink to make obama change course on brennan (a relatively momentous decision, considering that he really seems to be having some trouble choosing a CIA head, and that he is likely worried about insubordination at the CIA, so would be inclined to pick an 'experienced hand').  much the same could be said about the campaign to prevent summers from being appointed treasury secretary (though, admittedly, this was a less meaningful 'victory').    

sure, some people gripe and dig their heels in on the blogs (kos in particular), but this is not an indication that folks like yourself have no room to maneuver, especially since open left is starting to become one of the key nodes in a nascent movement to hold obama accountable.

it may be painful sometimes, but i really think that you will find it rewarding to speak out honestly when you have problems with what obama is doing.  there are enough people who have your back enough of the time....      


to be clear, i didn't mean that markos himself digs his heels in, but rather that (4.00 / 1)
commenters at dkos do....  

[ Parent ]
Agree, to a point (4.00 / 3)
Yes, there's room to mobilize and still affects things. I believe Obama knows that he couldn't re-name Hayden and even Jane Harman would create a problem for him, because of the opposition of the left. Dissent isn't dead.

On the other hand, take the Brennan case. He's a torturer. The fact that O put him on his transition team and considered appointing him shows how small we are.

Indeed, I believe that he could've named Brennan with virtual impunity. The members of the permanent campaign would've come up with talking points to renounce torture.


[ Parent ]
whoops (4.00 / 1)
the end of my comment got all screwed up. you get the point.

[ Parent ]
all fair points, but i want to push back on this: (4.00 / 1)
On the other hand, take the Brennan case. He's a torturer. The fact that O put him on his transition team and considered appointing him shows how small we are.

Indeed, I believe that he could've named Brennan with virtual impunity.

This claim doesn't square with what actually took place.  Opposition was strong enough to derail the nomination.  It really is as simple as that.  

While I agree that it is disappointing that Obama would even consider choosing Brennan, I don't share your evaluation of the significance of this fact -- namely, that it "shows how small we are."  Instead, it shows what we are up against, and it provides an example that can be used in arguments with Obamaphiles about the need to hold Obama's feet to the fire.  If people are going to argue, in the face of the Brennan incident, that there should be no criticism of Obama from the left, then they truly are a lost cause.  On the other hand, if they can see the value of principled criticism in this case, they very well may be able to see its value in other cases.  It's like a wedge issue.  

Finally, I think that the Brennan incident can be used to illustrate how grotesque the political establishment is in this country, and how much we have our work cut out for us.  Either Obama is selling out to this establishment, in which case we need to hold his feet to the fire and shift the Overton window leftward, or he is trying to change it to whatever degree he can, in which case we need to hold his feet to the fire and shift the Overton window leftward.  Regardless, we have work to do.              


[ Parent ]
True, there will be some room (4.00 / 4)
This is true, there will be some room to manuever. Clearly, progressive pressure can change Obama's mind on things like Brennan, for example.

I didn't mean for the post to come off as so absolutist. I actually do think that there will be room to work to Obama's left. I just meant to say that while we look for such room, we need to remember that when Obama takes a big public stance on something, we will lose the majority of the party to that position (if, of course, we disagree).

Really, I meant it more as a factor to be aware of than to be defeatist. This is a factor we have to work with. One key, obviously, will probably be to make progressive fights over something that would not capture mass attention, and thus not lead to a big Obama statement on the matter. The Secretary of the Interior and the CIA fights are examples of this. the more detailed, wonky aspects of legislation are probably others. The biggest progressive successes will probably come on things that do not capture mass attention. That is a tricky, but not unworkable, position for a grassroots movement to be in.

Saxby Chambliss


[ Parent ]
this was actually my first thought in response to your post: (0.00 / 0)
One key, obviously, will probably be to make progressive fights over something that would not capture mass attention, and thus not lead to a big Obama statement on the matter.

another side to this is that if we are fighting against a relatively invisible move that the administration is making, they may have an incentive to capitulate so as to avoid having to make a big statement on the issue, and thus use up a certain degree of political capital that they had hoped to use somewhere else.  


[ Parent ]
It has good and bad points. (4.00 / 2)
It also means if he pushes EFCA, the blue dogs should be forced to support it.

We depend on Obama's choices.


[ Parent ]
After (4.00 / 4)
a good post you shy away from pursuing the logic of the post.

If Democratic electoral prospects continue to be bright, if Obama has a lot of success in passing legislation, and if the state of the country starts to improve, Democratic dissent against Obama will continue to be a minority position in the party. Given that I hope all of those things will happen, I suppose that not even I am looking forward to a point where left-wing criticism of the Obama administration is more widely tolerated.

Well sure, all 3 of those things--Dems do well, O passes legislation, and the country improves--even if Team O runs to the center, doesn't tolerate dissent, and stiff arms the left. But obviously the bills won't be as progressives as they should be, the country won't improve as much as it should, and Dems won't do as well as they should if Team O doesn't tolerate dissent and stiff arms the left.

This post reminded me of Stoller's post a little while ago, when he says he doesn't mind if O kicks the left in the head as long as he governs well. But by definition kicking the left in the head means not governing well. It means increasing the occupation of Afghanistan and not getting out of Iraq and not cleaning up the FISA mess and not rolling back Bush tax cuts on the wealthy and not redoing NAFTA, etc. And it means squashing dissent from the left when he does all these things.

From where I sit, you and Stoller are both saying, "I don't mind if Obama isn't progressive as long as he's progressive."

It seems that you're internalizing the moral relavatism of some of the Obama hardcore who criticize your criticism, their claim that criticism of O is purity trolling because His program is obviously progressive and He's one of the most progressive presidents of our lifetime and He's more progressive than Clinton...

No need to soften the argument. Abusing the English language to quash dissent is wrong. So is appointing centrists who've gotten the big things wrong. So is stiff-arming the left to curry favor with the establishment. It's wrong because it hurts the party, hurts progressivism, and hurts the country.

End of story.



It's not that (4.00 / 4)
From where I sit, you and Stoller are both saying, "I don't mind if Obama isn't progressive as long as he's progressive."

What I am saying is "I don't expect Obama to govern in a left-wing fashion, but the country is so fucked up right now, I still hope that he makes things better."

I don't expect things to get better enough, but I still hope they improve. Besides Republican political operatives, who doesn't?

Saxby Chambliss


[ Parent ]
Well, okay (4.00 / 1)
I thought you were saying that you wouldn't mind his stiff-arming the left as long as he makes the country better.  

[ Parent ]
I agree with your list of three (4.00 / 1)
But that crap about Democrats agreeing to Dick Cheney as Sec. of Interior or a full-on invasion of Pakistan (without any Pakistani attack on U.S. first) is straight up ridiculous.

Dems love Obama, but come on, we're not the same as Republicans. We still have our brains to ourselves - something about liberal ideology lends itself to independent thinking.

I know you've battled some "Dear Leader" types here in the blogs, or at least what you view as Dear Leader types, but let's not go overboard and say that Obama will get a free pass on literally everything no matter how ridiculous.

So far Obama has made pretty good choices, that's why most Dems agree with him or give him leeway (on Gates, for example). But just because Obama agreed to telecom immunity didn't mean that the majority of Dems suddenly agreed to it. It was an unpopular position and remains an unpopular position. Some came around to thinking it was politically beneficial for Obama, even if bad policy, but even those I believe were a minority.


typo alert (0.00 / 0)
Only 21% of Democrats have a FAVORABLE opinion of Lieberman.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

somewhat disingenuous (0.00 / 0)
You've oversimplified the arguments ... and I think you're missing the boat in terms of what the barriers will be to progressive policies.

First, the oversimplifications:
1. Everyone has an ideology.
Correct, but NOT everyone is an ideologue.

2. Governmental personnel have an impact on governmental policy.
Correct.  But to look primarily at the negative qualities of those appointees, and assume a negative outcome, requires an assumption not everyone else is willing to make.

3. There was internal disagreement in the Obama administration on keeping Gates as Secretary of Defense
So? It's irrelevant. I'm sure there was internal disagreement over Chu as energy secretary.

Finally, there's this:
4. Whatever Obama comes out in favor of will become the majority position within the Democratic Party.

I doubt that if Obama came out with a single-payer health care plan that Congressional Democrats would blindly support it, and neither would the media (who rely on the health industry for advertising), and therefore the media -- as well as lobbyists -- will work to shape public opinion against it.   Not to say that the Obama administration shouldn't try to get us closer to some form of single-payer system, but it won't be that easy.

Several of Matt's diaries have already shown the efforts of the lobbyist industry to influence policy, public opinion and political appointments. I would strongly argue that this will play a bigger role in what Congressional Democrats -- and most Americans -- will support than anything Obama says or does. Even if the majority of Democrats support a policy, it may not be enough. It's true that Obama has a huge mandate for change, and he can shape opinion. So if he wants to fight for it, it's got a chance. But his biggest opponents may be Congressional Democrats, and he knows it (thus the capitulation over Lieberman keeping his chairmanship).

I think the biggest concern progressives have the next four years is in the Democratic-controlled Senate. You have each Senator fighting to protect his/her home "industry" (Wall Street, Big Auto, Big Pharma, etc.) and cutting deals with other Senators to win political battles. It's sooo easy for big business to divide and conquer these guys, just the way football teams play one city against another to get stadiums built.

Chuck Schumer's blind support of Wall Street, Carl Levin's support of the Auto Industry, etc., are prime examples. This is where the battles will be fought, not over progressivism and conservatism, but over the belief that these Senators think they're "protecting" "their" industries and the jobs in their state (ironic as that may be).

If you want change, put political pressure on Schumer, Dodd, Frank etc., to reform banking. On Levin to reform the Auto Industry, etc. Demonstrate how they've screwed over the very industries they aimed to protect. Demand public campaign financing of elections. This is where the rubber meets the road in terms of getting legislation passed.



Chris you once posted (0.00 / 0)
that you were "ashamed of Obama" I now see everything you post through that lens.  It may not be fair but that is how I take your criticisms of Obama.  I get the feeling that he could do 99% of what you want and you would still not be satisfied with him.

I never wrote that (4.00 / 2)
I never wrote that. But thanks for making up quotes on me.

And even if I had written that, it would still be your own preconceptions, not mine. If you decide to take everything I write with a grain of salt, you would be the one doing the pre-judging.

Nice.  

Saxby Chambliss


[ Parent ]
Constructive Criticism (4.00 / 1)
If you don't mind some constructive criticism.. I think its not necessarily what you say... its the tone that... intentional or unintentional... comes off of some of your posts... some of the posts in question have a very "I'm right, you are wrong and further more you are the biggest fucking idiots for disagreeing with me and thinking that way" tone to them... Not accusing you of that intention, but that is the way some of them feel like.   Of course when ANYONE gets that sense, they are going to become argumentitive... as was the case with many folk (I think I declined to comment on all 3).

As for my feelings:

1) A statement of fact... the debate I think with this is to what level ideology affects actions and opinions.   This is one of those where the true definition of ideology has been warped a bit.  My feelings on this is basically "depends on the person".

2) Government personnel has an impact on policy is accurate, I think the debate is the LEVEL of impact.  My opinion... It depends on how much latitude the President gives those people.

3) Not sure if the gates thing was right or wrong... but the statement that there was internal dissent is accurate and a statement of fact.    


Yes, it is largely the tone (4.00 / 1)
And it's a shame that the tone tends to overshadow the substance.

I'll also take issue with this comment: "The reason for the controversy over such straightforward claims is that all three help create space for justifiable, left-wing criticism of Obama's transition."

This comment seems unfair. Chris should acknowledge the possibility that some people simply disagree with what he thinks are straightforward claims, rather than assume that they are are objecting in order to prevent criticism of Obama.


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