Rays of light in the dark (rainbow-colored ones)

by: Adam Bink

Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 18:30


As the returns were coming in last night, despite the, to quote the President on this day four years ago, "thumpin'" we took, I did find several rays of light in victories for the LGBT movement and allies. I share them because while I'm not a Hope™ kind of guy, I do believe that finding what is positive and what worked is as important as what went wrong. We have some work to do, after all.

  • At the top of the list for me is that around the country, governors who pledged to sign important equality legislation were elected in key races- Cuomo in NY, Abercrombie in HI, Chafee in RI, O'Malley in MD, Brown in CA, and perhaps Mark Dayton in Minnesota who is leading at the time of this post. California is so important because of the standing issue that threatened to bring the whole Prop 8 case down, while MD, RI, NY and MN are, from what multiple sources on the ground have told me and my own observations, the four states in which we are closest to getting the freedom to marry for same-sex couples enshrined into law. In Hawaii, where Gov. Lingle callously vetoed the civil unions bill, we replaced her with proud progressive and LGBT ally Neil Abercrombie, who will sign it if/when should it pass through the legislature again. The biggest disappointment was major homophobe Paul LePage winning the governor's chair in Maine, who not only opposes marriage equality but also wants to repeal the 2005 anti-discrimination law, a law upheld even by the voters. This will make it very tough to get a marriage bill through again soon. On the whole, though, some good advances among state executives.

  • In New York State, where we lost the marriage vote in the State Senate 24-38 last December, we made gains. By my count, a minimum of 25 pro-equality Senators, either by previous vote or by voice, will take their seats, and that could go as high as 28 (three incumbent Democrats who voted for the bill are in tight races not yet called). 32 votes are needed to pass a bill. Between a handful who pledged to be with us should their votes pave the way for passage, and perhaps more whose minds will be changed, solid victories. Of equal concern is retaining Democratic control of the State Senate, as despite minority leader Skelos' promise to bring up the bill for a vote again, I don't believe him. At worst, it looks like a 29/33 minority and at best, retain control by the same margin of 32/30, but that is critical.

  • In California, Kamala Harris is putting up a fight that is a close one- it looks like with nearly all the votes in, she is up by a margin of 0.2%, but with Riverside County yet to come in, along with absentees and provisional ballots. That race is also important to the standing issue in Prop 8, and also because Kamala is as outspoken a straight ally as we'll find on the freedom to marry.

  • Losing the judges in Iowa who ruled in favor of the freedom to marry hurts, and is frankly offensive. As one colleague wrote to me this morning, another new low in NOM and the anti-gays playing with fire near the state constitution.

  • But, NOM's top dog in California, Andy Pugno, the author of Prop 8, went down in an Assembly race to a staunchly pro-LGBT ally. And they lost around the country, from Paladino (who they weirdly sued for the right to advertise in favor of without having to follow state law) to DC City Council candidates to NH Gov. John Lynch, re-elected despite heavy NOM advertising slamming him for signing the marriage bill.

  • California and Maryland now has seven openly gay members of the state legislature, highest in the nation (still too few, but the arc of history). David Cicilline also became the fourth openly LGBT member of Congress, and Barney Frank won in a walk over FreedomWorks with gay staffers GOProud endorsee Sean Bielat. In Lexington, KY, Jim Gray was elected mayor as an openly gay man. The Victory Fund reports a record number of openly LGBT candidates elected to office.

  • In the losses that perhaps hurt the most, LGBT heroes Sen. Russ Feingold, Rep. Patrick Murphy, and Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet- three candidates I worked perhaps hardest for, and many of you contributed to- all went down. I think in almost any other year, good men like these would have won- and I hope they all run again. Other openly gay candidates some of whom had a shot and some who did not, lost. Barbara Boxer returning to the Senate is the one good step on the national level.

Some of the losses yesterday felt like a punch in the gut, while others a ray of light. All in all, a step forward for marriage equality nationwide and LGBT people and allies. And the fight to return our strongest champions in those who lost continues anew.

Adam Bink :: Rays of light in the dark (rainbow-colored ones)

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If there's another SC vacancy (4.00 / 2)
Feingold should be the nominee.  He would be the real sucessor to John Paul Stevens.  

Interesting choice... (4.00 / 1)
Would the "goodl ol' boys club" in the Senate deny on of their former members?

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
Some NY SS analysis (0.00 / 0)
Here's where we are.

We picked up 5 votes; Avella over Padavan in Queens, Peralta and Gianaris as we previously knew, Carlucci taking Morahan's Rockland seat, and Kennedy over Stachowski.

Meanwhile, we definitely lost 1 seat (Foley) and I assume Lee Zeldin votes no.  We could lose as many as 3 more votes depending on the paper count for Johnson, Thompson, and Oppenheimer.  My bet is we lose Johnson and hold Oppenheimer leaving as at 31-31.

This means that under my theory, we gained 3 votes which brings us up to 27.  Can we get the other votes?  Maybe.

1) Greg Ball didn't vote for marriage equality in the Assembly but has spoken positively on several LGBT issues.  He could be persuaded, and he does love to piss on the GOP party insiders.

2) Addabbo and Alesi both survived by decent margins and are both on the fence.  Another round of convincing with lower margins could be enough.

3) We don't know much at all about any new Republican so we could have potential vote-crossings there.

4) Finally, the issue of a 31-31 split brings up an interesting issue.  The Senate rules don't say that 32 votes are necessary to pass anything, but rather to call the question (cloture).  If a power-sharing agreement is brought to make things work in a tied Senate, we might only need 31 votes with the 32nd cast in a tie by Lt. Governor Duffy.  That takes away one of the votes we needed to get in the first place.

It's going to take a lot of work but assuming the Senate ends up as a 31-31 tie with Democratic control of the majority through the tiebreaking vote (or at least a 60/40 power sharing agreement), we're in a better position this time than last time.

"Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority." -William Jennings Bryan


re: IA (0.00 / 0)
Losing the judges in Iowa who ruled in favor of the freedom to marry hurts, and is frankly offensive. As one colleague wrote to me this morning, another new low in NOM and the anti-gays playing with fire near the state constitution.

how will the replacement judges will be selected?


through judicial nominating commissions (4.00 / 1)
who will select three names for each vacancy and present those to the governor. He has to appoint someone on the short list compiled by the judicial nominating commissions.

I feel sick about the judges, but there is another problem too--Republicans took the Iowa House by a big margin and almost took the Iowa Senate. That may end up a tie, or it may end up with a 26-24 Democratic majority. Worse than expected. That means they have the votes to pass a constitutional amendment on marriage next year. Then they have to pass the same amendment again in 2013 or 2014 to get it on the statewide ballot in 2014.

Four years from now, will Iowans vote down an amendment to overturn marriage equality? After seeing what happened to the judges, my gut says the amendment would pass.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.


[ Parent ]
thanks (0.00 / 0)
things sound bad...

[ Parent ]




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