Juan Cole discusses the progression of Mubarak’s thuggish and decietful attempt to hold onto power:
On Wednesday, the Mubarak regime showed its fangs, mounting a massive and violent repressive attack on the peaceful crowds in Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo. People worrying about Egypt becoming like Iran (scroll down) should worry about Egypt already being way too much like Iran as it is. That is, Hillary Clinton and others expressed anxiety in public about increasing militarization of the Iranian regime and use of military and paramilitaries to repress popular protests. But Egypt is far more militarized and now is using exactly the same tactics.
The outlines of Hosni Mubarak’s efforts to maintain regime stability and continuity have now become clear. In response to the mass demonstrations of the past week, he has done the following:
1. Late last week, he first tried to use the uniformed police and secret police to repress the crowds, killing perhaps 200-300 and wounding hundreds.
2. This effort failed to quell the protests, and the police were then withdrawn altogether, leaving the country defenseless…. The public dealt with this threat of lawlessness by organizing self-defense neighborhood patrols, and continued to refuse to stop demonstrating.
3. Mubarak appointed military intelligence ogre Omar Suleiman vice president…..
4. Mubarak mobilized the army to keep a semblance of order, but failed to convince the regular army officers to intervene against the protesters….
5. When the protests continued Tuesday, Mubarak came on television and announced that he would not run for yet another term and would step down in September. His refusal to step down immediately and his other maneuvers indicated his determination, and probably that of a significant section of the officer corps, to maintain the military dictatorship in Egypt….
6. When this pledge of transition to a new military dictator did not, predictably enough, placate the public either, Mubarak on Wednesday sent several thousand secret police and paid enforcers in civilian clothing into Tahrir Square to attack the protesters with stones, knouts, and molotov cocktails, in hopes of transforming a sympathetic peaceful crowd into a menacing violent mob. This strategy is similar to the one used in summer of 2009 by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to raise the cost of protesting in the streets of Tehran, when they sent in basij (volunteer pro-regime militias). Used consistently and brutally, this show of force can raise the cost of urban protesting and gradually thin out the crowds.
Note that this step number 6 required that the army agree to remain neutral and not to actively protect the crowds. The secret police goons were allowed through army checkpoints with their staves, and some even rode through on horses and camels. Aljazeera English’s correspondent suggests that the military was willing to allow the protests to the point where Mubarak would agree to stand down, but the army wants the crowd to accept that concession and go home now.
It may just be wishful thinking on my part, but I think that the army has made a grave miscalculation, potentially destroying its heretofore unparalleled positive stature in Egyptian society. Mubarak has nihilistically shown himself to be willing to destroy Egyptian society rather than leave in peace. The army appears to be tacitly backing this nihilistic play.
As Cole has explained in his immediately previous post, “Why Egypt 2011 is not Iran 1979”, the fear of a fundamentalist takeover is entirely misplaced in today’s Egypt. But if the army blocks this unprecedented broad concensus of the Egyptian people, there is simply no telling what sort of future havoc they are sowing, be it five years in the future or a full generation.
I do not expect any sort of benevolence or far-sightedness from the Egyptian military. Military organizations are not known for such things. But I do hope, simply, that strong enough elements in the Egyptian army value their unique status in Egyptian society to do the right thing, and thus reaffirm that that status has been justly earned, and should live on through history.
The question, really, is whether they warriors–men of honor–or merely good soldiers who do as they are told. We forever hear so much about warriors, and forever see so little.
All the more reason that Egypt’s army should surprise us all, and cover themselves in glory.
As Sun Tzu says, the greatest victory is won without firing a shot.
Is Egypt’s army great enough?
Only they can say for sure.
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