(Dark Blue (184): Obama +10% or more
Lean Blue (58): Obama +4.1%-+9.9%
White / Toss-up (85): Obama +4.0% to McCain +4.0%
Lean Red (65): McCain +4.1%-+9.9%
Dark Red (146): McCain +10.0% or more)
The holiday weekend significantly slowed the influx of new polls, so this is the first update in six days. All of the movement right now is from the "Lean" categories to the "Solid" categories. As states like Texas and Nebraska move to "Solid McCain," and states like California move to "Solid Obama," the battleground has shrunk remarkably. In just the last ten days, the total electoral votes of the states in the "lean" or "toss-up" categories has shrunk from 300 to 175. This change is causing the map to start to bear a lot of resemblance to the maps of 2000 and 2004. Right now, the only states with polling averages that are significant outliers from recent presidential elections are Indiana, Massachusetts, North Dakota, and South Carolina. Everything else is pretty much where one would expect it to be in an normal election year.
That is certainly disappointing, because Bush's 28.3% approval rating, skyrocketing Democratic self-identification, mass Republican retirements in the House, and the Senate Forecast makes it clear that this is not a normal election year. However, if anyone ever thought it was going to be easy to elect an African-American President of the United States, much less one named Barack Obama, and much less when matched up against the media's favorite politician, they were probably kidding themselves. Still, it is a great challenge to have, and Obama maintains a small lead in the Electoral College even when leaners are pushed. McCain has moved ahead by 1.3% nationally, but that should change next week when Obama is able to declare victory in the nomination campaign.
It is a very close election. We all have lots of work to do. The state by state details in the extended entry.
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
For each state, take all polls conducted for the state over the previous thirty days, and average them.
If one polling firm has more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days, take only the most recent poll.
Every state has at least two polls. If two polls were not conducted in a state over the last thirty days, use the two most recent polls from any polling firm.
If only one poll has been conducted in a state, then only use that poll.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease. Also, when the amount of data increases, I will be able to start projecting the swing, "toss-up" states. Right now, however, there just isn't enough data to push those states into one camp or the other.
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