Not Going To Freak Out Over Biden

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 12:05

When Joe Biden returns to Capitol Hill Monday from his two-day trip to embattled Georgia, vice presidential speculation will rest squarely on him.

The longtime Delaware senator and former presidential candidate has long been considered to be on the shortlist for Barack Obama's running mate, but his quickly-planned trip to Georgia Saturday night at the behest of that country's president left Washington buzzing he is the most likely choice.

And, as tremayne already linked last night, from Steven Clemmons, at the Washington Note:

But sources close to Obama report to me that after the "surge of concern" on the net about Evan Bayh, he has not been selected as Obama's VP running mate.

I have been informed that the decision has been made, and I don't know who that person is.

I also have been told that Tom Daschle is not the running mate. I also happen to know that it is not Wesley Clark.

I just received word that it is not Senator Jack Reed either, though Obama thought very highly of him.(...)

That leaves Joe Biden. Could Warner be a head fake -- and it's Tim Kaine after all? Not sure. . .circumstantial evidence points to Biden.

Now, all this buzz could be wrong, and it won't end up being Biden. Also, Biden is not a reinforcing choice, as he has served in the Senate for 36 years and supported the war back in 2002-2003. In two key ways--Iraq judgment and "change" election--that is very much the opposite of Barack Obama, and could muddle his message.

Still, when it comes to ideological leanings and campaign ability, Biden is a preferable choice to Bayh and Kaine. Rather than being a right-wing Democrat, and despite his reputation online as a hawk representing D-MBNA, Biden is pretty middle of the road for a Democrat. According to progressive punch, he comes in at 23rd out of 43 non-freshman Democrats in terms of lifetime progressive ranking, just barely behind Kerry (19th), Dodd (20th), and Obama (21st). As a campaigner, while Biden is often criticized online as never finding a camera he didn't think should be filming him, he is very familiar on the national stage, with the national media, and is a strong debater. He is also a good attack dog, and you shouldn't have to worry about him falling down in that category.

Maybe my support for Biden is mainly a testament to how poor the crop of potential candidates is than anything else. After all, being preferable to Evan Bayh isn't really saying much of at all. I think he is about an equal choice to Dodd, even though Dodd has displayed a bit of a progressive bent lately and is always on message (he does, unfortunately, have a recent scandal). Kaine is a reinforcing pick, but it is hard to swallow him as an effective governor, or an effective national campaigner. Sebelius might be a bit more reinforcing than Biden, but she is also untested as a national campainger.

Which is to say that Biden, Sebelius and Dodd all rank about the same to me. They are also clearly above Kaine, and that Kaine ranks above Evan Bayh, who is the worst pick of all. With Biden, it nice, and a bit of a relief, for the speculation to be centered on one of the better three this time. I still wouldn't be surprised by a Kaine pick, but I would be relieved by a Biden one.