The Box McCain is Inby: Mike LuxWed Oct 22, 2008 at 15:05 |
| Chris Bowers wrote two posts (here and here) this morning which do a terrific job of analyzing why McCain is targeting Pennsylvania and making other Electoral College decisions. The McCain campaign is truly in a box, and their range of options are narrowing. |
| I would continue targeting PA were I in the McCain campaign as well. In addition to the early voting reason Chris mentioned, I would add the following: it's been a relatively competitive state in big electoral landslides. It's got one of the oldest populations in the country, and one of the most blue-collar, so if there's any kind of last-minute swing back among those swing demographics, McCain will be back in the game. Finally, if they pull out of Pennsylvania after already folding in Michigan, Wisconsin and other swing states, it really allows the Obama campaign huge options in terms of its already big margin regarding targeted-state resource allocation.
The big questions in my mind regarding McCain are what he's planning in terms of Colorado and Virginia. I was stunned to hear that McCain is backing off in any degree in terms of media spending in Colorado- it makes no sense to me given the historic Republican tendencies there, and especially given that Colorado is one of the few states in the country where the Republicans seem to be holding their own in early voting. Furthermore, unless the long-shot bid to come back in Pennsylvania works, he absolutely has to win both Colorado and Virginia. Speaking of Virginia, the numbers there look remarkably stable, and remarkably good, for Obama. That is really good news, especially given Chris' point regarding early voting starting there so early. I still don't believe it is a lock, because there is plenty of volatility in Virginia, but it sure is moving closer and closer to being done. Above and beyond the tight box McCain finds himself in regarding the Electoral College myth, there's another big box he finds himself in: he has run out of message options, too. He's in too deep a hole to win this race without taking Obama down a notch or two, but his over-the-top sleazy attacks are so ridiculous that most voters are tuning them out. And his attacks about socialism and spreading the wealth just aren't selling with an American public that has rejected conservative Republican arguments on economics. Elections are never over until they are over, because any big event can change the dynamics. Voter suppression still a big problem, and so is the threat actual vote-stealing. I will go to the last day of this election (and probably to my grave, in whatever election cycle that may be) saying we should not take victory for granted. But having said my usual piece on all that, this is also clear: John McCain sure is in a world of hurt. |