The Pluralist Coalition Manifests

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 15:30

The 2006 and 2008 national exit polls show an overall pro-Democratic margin within 1% of each other. However, they reach this margin in very different ways. Specifically, Obama heavily under-performed 2006 Democrats among white voters, losing that group by 12% compared to only a 4% Democratic defeat two years ago. However, he won the campaign anyway, and did so with a margin nearly identical to 2006.

How did he do so? In the extended entry, I discuss the long awaited rise to power of the pluralist coalition.
In 2006, non-whites composed 23% of the electorate, and broke for Obama by a margin of 75%-24% (see the "religion among white" crosstab). However, in 2008, non-whites composed 26% of the electorate, and broke for Obama by a 79%-18% margin (see the same crosstab). That amounts to a 4.1% increase for Obama, drawn entirely from non-white voters, virtually canceling out Obama's 5.7% drop among white voters.

Obama also won white non-Christians, who represented 13% of the electorate, by a margin of 72%-25%, This margin is identical to the Democratic score among this group in 2006, meaning that Obama's entire decline among whites came from white Christians. Compared to 2006 Democrats, Obama gained among non-whites, held steady among white non-Christians, and dropped among white Christians.

This is the manifestation of the pluralist coalition I have written about for four years (see Maybe It Is a Battle Of Civilizations, Towards a Pluralist Strategy and The End of Bubba Dominance for my major writings on the subject). Here are some figures about this coalition to keep in mind:

  1. Roughly 60% of all Democratic voters are now non-white and / or non-Christian (per exit polls).
  2. Democrats hold a 3-1 margin among non-whites and / or non-Christians (per exit polls)
  3. Non-whites and / or non-Christians now compose 39% of the electorate, their highest total ever (per exit polls)
  4. Over 60% of the country under the age of 43 is non-white and / or non-Christian (Source). Many commenters will justifiably ogle the huge, pro-Obama youth vote this year, but really the non-white and / or non-Christian vote are deeply intertwined.
  5. Over 100% of the population growth in America comes from non-whites and / non-Christians. That is, the white Christian population in America is actually slowly declining, even though the population of the country is still increasing on right pace with average world population growth. (Source)
In this context, Obama's victory should not be seen as a historical fluke created by the confluence of disastrous Republican governing, a 2004 Illinois Senate field that collapsed around him, and a great speech at the Democratic convention four years ago. It is, instead, a harbinger of America's future.

The coalition that Obama won with is just getting started in terms of political dominance. This really is the end of the political dominance of the socially conservative white voter, no matter how many pundits claim that we live in a center-right America. (See also Simon Rosenberg's essay On Obama, race and the end of the Southern Strategy.) In fact, if anything, as long as center-right media and political institutions fail to see the writing on the wall and actually start appealing to this coalition, they will continue to lose market share.

America is not a center-right nation. It is now a culturally pluralistic nation, and the line between identity and ideology is becoming awfully blurry these days.
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