Do you think it will matter? (0.00 / 0)

Of course it depends on how things go, but personally, I think Obama will win Wisconsin by around 10 points and then will go into Ohio and Texas with good momentum and press. If he can win one of those states or even lose both with narrow margins but keep his pledged delegate lead (100+), Clinton will drop out. I know she says she’ll stick around till the convention, but didn’t Edwards say that too?

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by: bmozaffari @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 13:01:55 PM CST

 

sorry to put this here, (0.00 / 0)

but there’s no other way to respond to Quick Hits:

for johnalive, re ” Maybe Clinton staying in WI past Monday morning after all”

Clinton’s schedule has changed due to the weather:
http://www.nytimes.com/aponlin…

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — A snow and ice storm Sunday slowed the campaigns of Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in Wisconsin.

Clinton had scheduled an early afternoon town hall meeting in DePere, but a spokeswoman for her Wisconsin campaign said the event was postponed until Monday.

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by: along @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 13:05:48 PM CST

 

And Eau Claire… (0.00 / 0)

She had already cancelled that event for other reasons, I think scheduling conflict. That report in quick hits is from Friday.

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by: Progressive America @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 13:10:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]  

Yes, you're right… (0.00 / 0)

Will remove it now.
Thanks!

McCain’s mindless belligerency

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by: johnalive @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 13:22:36 PM CST

[ Parent ]  

Thanks… (0.00 / 0)

The post about her schedule was updating the earlier Quick Hit that Chris posted from the same source that said Clinton would be leaving WI Monday morning (Clinton Scales Back Wisconsin Campaign). Perhaps I should have referenced the earlier Quick Hit to give the context.
The maybe part of the headline captures the unofficial and anonymous aspect of the source.
I’ll be away from my computer for a few hours now. If Chris, Matt or other Quick Hitters want to nix my Quick Hit and do one with the contexual reference to the earlier one, go for it.

McCain’s mindless belligerency

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by: johnalive @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 13:20:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]  

Colorado County Caucus March 8th (0.00 / 0)

The 2/5 precinct caucus polled attendees for their presidential preferences; from the totals, delegates and alternates to the County Conventions on March 8th were apportioned. The delegates to the 5/17/08 State Convention will be selected at the 3/8/08 County Conventions.

While it is expected that County and State Delegates will support the candidates they caucused for, and in the proportions equal to the original caucus poll, there is nothing that prevents delegates from changing their votes.

http://coloradodems.org/conten…

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by: -ck- @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 13:29:06 PM CST

 

Nebraska (0.00 / 0)

June 10 is our county conventions – June 28 is our state convention.

Further Reading | New Nebraska Network

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by: Dave Sund @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 13:40:15 PM CST

 

Also… (0.00 / 0)

I’ll have to double check, but I think that our presidential preferences are binding.  

Further Reading | New Nebraska Network

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by: Dave Sund @ Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 01:26:12 AM CST

[ Parent ]  

post-caucus strategery (0.00 / 0)

That the delegations aren’t finalized makes one marvel at the Clinton campaign’s strategy of belittling states that it loses.  I’m sure the Edwards delegates in Iowa will be really pumped about that (and I’m sure the Iowa and NH conventions will be buzzing about her Florida and Michigan gambit as well).

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by: Raralex @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 13:51:29 PM CST

 

Hate to be all things MI (0.00 / 0)

But this is a point I’ve been making since MI’s delegate apportionment came out.

There are 55 delegates–that may or may not be seated in time to vote for a President–on March 29 (these are the delegates awarded to uncommitted votes). The apportionment actually works against Obama–CDs 13, 14 (both Detroit) and 15 (with Washtenaw’s 40,000 students) are under-represented (IIRC this is normal, an effort to get participation from the less Democratic hinterlands).

This means Obama and Edwards’ supporters are in a face-off at the end of March (as well as Hillary supporters who can certainly bid for those uncommitted delegates, particularly since Edwards has dropped out and many people have legitimately gone to Hillary).

Given how many top Dems are Hillary supporters (except for 13 and 14; though I think the Dems in 15 will rally for OBama), I suspect Obama will have a tough time getting close to those 55 delegates.

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by: emptywheel @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 15:15:32 PM CST

 

Iowa county conventions on March 15 (0.00 / 0)

Chris, we’ll know a lot more about the Iowa Edwards’ delegates sooner than June. On March 15, “County Conventions choose both the county’s delegates to the Democratic Party Convention of the Congressional District of which the county is a part as well as the county’s delegates the Iowa State Democratic Convention”. Since there’s a 15% threshold at this level also, his “delegates” will be split between the two camps at this point. Then the CD conventions on April 26 will pick the final CD delegates, and, as you said, the state convention on June 14 will pick the state delegates as well as the 1 add-on superdelegate for Iowa.

2008 Democratic Convention Watch

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by: msn1 @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 16:22:31 PM CST

 

Iowa Superdelegates (0.00 / 0)

Iowa will also have elections for DNC committeeman and committeewoman.  Right now the woman is supporting Clinton and the man was supporting Edwards, but they could both be voted out.

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by: Whoppo @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 16:41:30 PM CST

[ Parent ]  

Texas Holds Two Caucus Rounds (4.00 / 1)

On 29 March County and Senate Distrct Caucuses meet to select state delegates, and on 6 June we meet to select national delegates. The 4 March “preference poll” is not particularly binding at either level.

There is all sorts of legalistic rigamarole to keep, say, a “Clinton” delegate at a lower level from being “selected” as an “Obabma” delegate to the national convention. Still, it won’t likely work, especially if there is a pro-Obama stampede.

The Texas convention system is designed to perpetuate a reactionary party establishment that is, in fact, split as well as just incompetent. So, there is really no telling what the “chaos theory” here will result in.

Texas is likely to violate national party rules and to change its own rules in the course of selecting delegates.

In fact, delegate selection is not about rules. However, party governance is very much about rules or, really, rulesmanship, since the rules are indecipherable.

Texas has an “inclusive” but still fundamentally “Jim Crow” party establishment dominated by GOP collaborators — Blue Dogs and, our local version of that, “Craddick Democrats”. They are bi-partisan concession-tenders, not really republicans or democrats.

::JRBehrman

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by: JRBehrman0 @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 17:57:37 PM CST

 

Putting Texas on that list (0.00 / 0)

We have county level conventions on March 29th and it’s not until June 6th-8th at the state convention that the final set of pledged caucus delegates are decided by the % share of sign-ins received by each campaign from state delegates (statewide).

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by: KTinTX @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 20:35:35 PM CST

[ Parent ]  

Delegate Preferences Can Change (0.00 / 0)

There are three sign-ins and four different opportunities for a delegate to be selected to advance to the next convention. And, the preference can change each in each round.

This is supposed to facilitate perpetuation of the state party establishment and has done so for thirty years, much to the detriment of the party. I do not think anybody knows how it will stand up to the test of a contested Presidential nomination.

In any case, selection of pledged delegates entails show-up, speak-up, stand-up votes — no secret ballots. Party big-wigs discussing changing or keeping rules miss two points: Delegate selection is not mostly rule-driven. And, in any case, the conventions themselves have plenary power to change rules.

In any case, to advance, one has to be a trustworthy individual or a clever manipulator. Actually, the good judgement of each and every delegate will be in play, more than media hype or professional manipulation.

I am hoping Obama will not just do well in Texas, but will energize a much-needed revitalization of our cornpone state party — a “Grisham novel” I call it.

::JRBehrman

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by: JRBehrman0 @ Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 11:29:50 AM CST

[ Parent ]  

In 1984… (0.00 / 0)

…the second stage caucuses were important.  Wierd things such as precinct delegates getting lost or being late can alter the outcome on the margins.  Also, alliances can develop, in unexpected ways, to change the numbers too.  Momentum still matters.

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by: howardpark @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 19:55:05 PM CST