Mid-day Pennsylvania Update

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:30

As of 10:00 a.m. this morning, 20% of the registered Democrats in the two divisions (precincts) where I hand out literature had already voted. We could hit 50% Democratic turnout with a rate like that.

Also, AlterNet has a guide to the Pennsylvania primary, where I am quoted extensively. Check it out.

Finally, to go out on a limb, I don't think that the final uptick toward Clinton as registered in Zogby is accurate. (Yeah, it's a real stretch not to trust Zogby). I was looking over primary polls today, and Survey USA never once overstated Obama's performance. While overall Survey USA has been quite accurate, in the three states where they were off by more than a handful--Alabama, Missouri and South Carolina--every time their margin skewed more than ten points in favor of Clinton. I also thought ttuje had a convincing analysis of the polls arguing why both the pro-Obama outlier of PPP and the pro-Clinton outlier of Suffolk are wrong. So, my gut tells me that the 6% gap we have seen in most polls is accurate, and that when the undecided are factored in the final margin will rise to 7%. So, I'm going with Clinton 53.5%--46.5% Obama, with a delegate breakdown of Clinton 85--73 Obama. Kind of a mushy prediction that doesn't break strongly one way or the other, but so it goes.

For further Pennsylvania poll analysis, check out this good round-up from Pollster.com.

Chris Bowers :: Mid-day Pennsylvania Update

Tags: President 2008, turnout, Delegates, Polls, Pennsylvania, (All Tags)

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Mid-day Pennsylvania Update | 13 comments

Spin City (0.00 / 0)

HRC wins by 6-10 points, claims a mandate. Obama says "meh", notes Clinton only picks up a net 10-12 delegates, moves on to NC and IN.

End result: HRC stays in the race despite "the math", spews GOP talking points for at least another three weeks and pisses off everyone before spitefully bowing out.

by: Tom @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:39:00 AM CDT

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Who does a high turnout rate favor today? n/t (0.00 / 0)

by: bennytoothpick @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:57:46 AM CDT

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depends where it is (0.00 / 0)

In Phila generally: Obama. In NE Phila: Clinton.

by: Adam B. @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:00:38 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I would think ... (0.00 / 0)

high turn out favors Obama .. maybe Chris can shed some light on that theory

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:01:04 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Obama Wins Upset (0.00 / 0)

Obama 51% and change, Clinton 48% and change.

by: C-Pluckhahn @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:06:17 AM CDT

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"You Can't Always Get... (4.00 / 3)

what you want, but if you try, sometimes, you get what you need" -- Mick Jagger -- ok, I'm a baby boomer but there is a lot of wisdom in that. I wan't this race over, but I'll take anything that doesn't change the game. It takes HRC up 20% to change the game.

by: howardpark @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:07:49 AM CDT

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Obama upset (0.00 / 0)

Anyone who checks that math and is able to accept reality knows that Obama will be the nominee - including a lot of HRC supporters. I envision a lot of HRC supporters saying they would rather have Hillary but, more importantly, it is time for this to be over so we can unite to beat McCain. Those people would have probably polled for HRC - but they will vote for Obama. That is the cause of the Obama upset.

by: richgreer @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:42:35 AM CDT

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Agreed (0.00 / 0)

My prediction:

Outcome: Obama by 0.5-1%, called late in the evening.

Narrative: Knockout punch by Obama fueled by high turnout in Philly burbs & youth vote; pressure (esp. from elected Supers) builds for HRC to exit.

by: Tim Cullen @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:46:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Stop the Coronation (0.00 / 0)

all votes must be counted! big state victories are what matter! use the Republic primary winner take all rules! the super delegates should throw Bambi out and give Hillary the nomination which she deserves! its for our safety!

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

by: Will @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:59:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Changing The Game (0.00 / 0)

For Clinton to change the game she needs a !2% plus win. A 8%- 11% win changes nothing. We march on toward June 3rd. However if she only wins by 3 - 8% the game changes against her and for Obama. She'll still limp along but it'll be lights out if she then loses Indiana. Obviously, if Obama wins tonight or only loses by 1-2% - it's good night for Hillary right now. She might try to fund herself for another month - but everyone will know its over.

by: C.B. Todd @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:42:45 AM CDT

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I am increasingly concerned (0.00 / 0)

that the Obama people do not understand the strength of their position, and are making mistakes as a result.

Baring a collapse, this race is won. They need to stop engaging the Clintons, as doing so both undermines the very frame that they want to build and lends credence to the notion that there is still a race.

I think Obama had a shot to win PA if he stuck to the hope theme and contrasted that with the ABC debate. He went negative, I think he will regret it.

Obama needs to get back on message, and that message is hope.

by: fladem @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:16:54 PM CDT

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And my guess is Clinton 56, Obama 42 (0.00 / 0)

by: fladem @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:21:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not sure I completely agree... (0.00 / 0)

Part of the post-Debate crap was "Can Obama take a punch?" with Clinton practically calling him a wimp. He needed to show some fight, whatever the numbers may be, and ignoring criticism of him would basically play into the "Obama's a wimp" theme.

Stupid, I know... but that's what our politics have devolved into.

by: leshrac55 @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:21:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Mid-day Pennsylvania Update | 13 comments

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