Presidential Forecast, 11/3-4: 13 Hours Left

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 13:00

Electoral College: Obama 338, McCain 200 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 51.9%--44.3% McCain


Dark Blue (278): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (60): Obama +0.1%-+5.9%
Lean Red (53): McCain +0.1%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more

Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/27-11/03
States not shown are further either direction
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin Polls Obama EVs
Obama Lock 154 154
Maine-AL 2 57.0% 40.5% +16.5% 2 156
Iowa 7 54.0% 38.3% +15.7% 3 163
New Jersey 15 53.5% 38.0% +15.5% 2 178
Oregon 7 55.8% 40.3% +15.5% 5 185
Washington 11 53.0% 39.5% +13.5% 2 196
Wisconsin 10 54.0% 40.5% +13.5% 2 206
Michigan 17 53.8% 40.8% +13.0% 4 223
Maine-02 1 52.0% 41.0% +11.0% 1* 224
Minnesota 10 52.5% 41.7% +10.8% 6 234
New Mexico 5 53.8% 43.3% +10.5% 4 239
New Hampshire 4 52.4% 42.0% +10.4% 7 243
Pennsylvania 21 51.6% 43.9% +7.7% 9 264
Colorado 9 51.4% 45.0% +6.4% 5 273
Nevada 5 50.0% 43.7% +6.3% 3 278
Virginia 13 50.5% 45.8% +4.7% 6 291
Ohio 20 48.6% 46.7% +1.9% 8 311
Florida 27 48.7% 47.1% +1.6% 9 338
North Carolina 15 48.1% 48.2% -0.1% 9 353
Missouri 11 48.0% 48.6% -0.6% 7 364
North Dakota 3 46.0% 47.0% -1.0% 1 367
Indiana 11 47.0% 48.4% -1.4% 5 378
Montana 3 46.0% 48.5% -2.5% 4 381
Arizona 10 45.7% 48.7% -3.0% 3 391
Georgia 15 46.2% 49.8% -3.8% 6 406
Lock McCain 132 538
* = Poll conducted before October 27th

Analysis and methodology in the extended entry.

Update 3:00 p.m.: New Rasmussen swing state polls added. New Strategic Vision Pennsylvania added. New PPP Missouri added. Links can be found in quick hits.

Update 6:00 p.m.: Survey USA North Carolina, along with PPP Indiana and Nevada.

Update 8:00 p.m.: Strategic Vision Florida, Georgia and Ohio included.

Update 9:00 p.m.: New Florida, Georgia, Maine and Washington polls added.

Update 1:00 a.m.: New Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia polls added.

Update 10:00 a.m. Tuesday: Final update completed. North Carolina flips to McCain.
Methodology
All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the final eight days of the campaign (October 27th forward). Campaign-funded and non-random Internet polls are not included. Every pollster only has one poll per average, and all polls are weighted equally. In the event two polls were not taken in the final seven days of the campaign, the two most recent polls were used instead. No polls conducted before October 13th are ever used, no matter what. The states listed were either swing states in 2004, or are swing states now. My rationale for this methodology is based on research I conducted back in June, which you can read here.

Analysis
These are pretty much the final averages, and I am now using the date range that I promised for the final forecast back in June. These are my final projections for every state, with the exception of Missouri, North Carolina, and North Dakota, where incoming polls might still change my projection. Obama is at 338 and McCain 171. Only 29 electoral votes are still too close to call.

The number of hours remaining refers to the time when California polls close. That is the moment when no work is left to be done, and when I except all major news outlets will project Obama as the next president. I will continue to update the forecast during the day, and make final projections sometime around noon eastern, tomorrow.  
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