My Final Election Forecasts

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 22:30

President
Electoral Vote: Obama 338--200 McCain
National Popular Vote: Obama 53.1%--45.4% McCain



You can see my final percentage projections here. I decided to go with Obama in North Carolina even though the state was exactly tied. The reason is that most of Obama's vote is already in, while McCain still has to get his voters to the polls. That's enough of a tie-breaker for me. If a final North Carolina poll comes out showing McCain ahead by any margin at all, I reserve the right to change my forecast for the state (Update: ARG poll of the state shows Obama up 1% in NC. It functions as a tie-breaker. Update 2: Zogby final tracking poll moves 2 points to McCain, so that breaks the tie in the other direction). Oh--and the national popular vote is just a guess based on the Pollster.com national average. I'm only banking my methodology on the state results.

Senate

• Democratic Pickups: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia.
  
• Run-off in Georgia where we fight for the Employee Free Choice Act
  
• Extremely narrow loss in Minnesota
  
• If I have some free time tomorrow, I'll spruce up the final percentages, and post them here. More likely, I will finish them after the election, to test how well my methodology worked.

Well, that was a fun year of forecasting elections. What have you got for your final numbers?