IN delegate prediction: Clinton 39, Obama 33

by: PsiFighter37

Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 18:51

While most of the political attention these days is aimed at Pennsylvania's April 22nd primary, perhaps the more important date is May 6th - when both Indiana and North Carolina hold their primaries. With a combined 187 pledged delegates at stake, it is the day that has the most pledged delegates remaining. After those two states (along with Guam, on May 3rd) have voted, 61.7% (349) of the remaining 566 pledged delegates will have been allocated. With North Carolina shaping up to be a blowout for Barack Obama, most of the attention is being focused on Indiana, which is shaping up to be a swing state in the primary.

The most recent polls show Hillary Clinton with a lead in the single digits - which is my starting point for my analysis of the state. Please find my district-by-district prediction for Indiana below the fold...

PA delegate prediction: Clinton 88, Obama 70

by: PsiFighter37

Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 16:58

As I promised in a previous diary, I would go into further detail about the predictions that I made above. My analysis is largely based off of the county-by-county breakdowns of the vote given at CNN, while any demographic data is from what I have found at the U.S. Census Bureau. I recognize that a lot of my predictions may be largely based on generalizations and historical observations, but I think that, for the most part, they will hold up.

For the first part of my series, I will start off chronicling my predicted results in Pennsylvania, the next state to hold a nominating contest (on April 22nd). Below the fold, find my district-by-district delegate projections...

This is one Blue Dog we need to support

by: PsiFighter37

Wed Aug 22, 2007 at 20:45

Ever since the Democratic Congress capitulated over the bill passed to enable Bush and the 'unitary executive' to continue domestic spying on Americans, there has been deserved outcry over the Democrats that supported the measure. This has occurred in large part due to Bush's ability to peel off Democrats who belong to the Blue Dog coalition. Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller over at Open Left have now started a project to hold these 'Bush Dogs' accountable for enabling a working conservative majority on the most important issues of the day despite their official allegiance to the Democratic Party. I believe this is an important project; that being said, I'd like to remind everyone that not all Blue Dogs are bad Democrats.

In fact, I want to highlight one Blue Dog in particular who has been on the right side of national security issues each time a vote has come up. He won one of the closest races in the country in 2006, and he's going to need the continued support of the netroots community to hold the seat in 2008. I'm talking about Rep. Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania's 8th District.

Hillary Clinton: The DLC presidential candidate (Part II)

by: PsiFighter37

Mon Aug 13, 2007 at 21:25

Yesterday, I examined Hillary Clinton's foreign policy stances, along with the similarities between her positions and that of the organization she is a leader of, the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC). Whereas Clinton and the DLC seem to skimp on the details and breadth when it comes to overseas affairs, they go a fair bit more in-depth on domestic issues, which is really the cornerstone of the DLC's existence. However, when it has come to the domestic policy agenda in the 2008 campaign, Clinton (along with her main rival, Barack Obama) hasn't been setting the tone of this campaign - that distinction belongs to John Edwards. In examining Clinton's domestic policy agenda, it stands out for being unspectacular - and more importantly, for what it leaves out entirely.

Hillary Clinton: The DLC presidential candidate (Part I)

by: PsiFighter37

Sun Aug 12, 2007 at 17:50

Hillary Clinton is the presumptive front-runner for the Democratic Party nomination for the presidency. It's something that my own analysis confirmed, as well as what a slew of public opinion polls have been saying for almost all of 2007. Part of this seems to be Clinton's ability to blur any real distinctions between her and the other top tier candidates, Barack Obama and John Edwards. As Chris Bowers notes, she has essentially eliminated any deficits she had faced demographically with Obama, and she has now begun to eat into Edwards' already-thin support.

If one examines her campaign closely, though, all you will find is this: Hillary Clinton is the DLC candidate for the presidency - not only because of her brand of cautious, timid politicking, but also because of the way she portrays herself at campaign events. In the next few days, I will be taking a comprehensive look at Clinton's positions and rhetoric to make the case for Clinton being the DLC candidate in 2008.