Late Deciders in Texas and Ohio

by: fladem

Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 09:35

( - promoted by Chris Bowers)

Yesterday I posted a table showing how late deciders were breaking. I noted that a consistent patter was occurring in SC, Super Tuesday and the primaries before March 4. That pattern showed Obama winning by big margins among those who decided during the last week, and among those who decided in the last three days. However, I also noted that Clinton was actually winning among those who decided on the day of the primary.

I have updated the table to reflect yesterday's primaries, and it now tells quite a story. Hillary's performance among those who decided on the day of the primary was almost identical to her performance on Super Tuesday. The key difference is Clinton won among those who decided in the last 72 hours 65-35. Obviously this is when she won Texas and built her 10 point margin in Ohio. Clinton also won among those deciding in the last week in Ohio (the sub-sample in Texas is not big enough to be significant).

These are significant findings. They strongly suggest that Clinton's attacks were decisive and validate the late movement shown in the SurveyUSA Polling of Ohio and Texas.

Later today I will post a comparison of the Mid-West primaries (Missouri, Wisconsin and Ohio) to understand the different outcomes.

fladem :: Late Deciders in Texas and Ohio

Tags: Ohio, Texas, (All Tags)

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Late Deciders in Texas and Ohio | 4 comments

That type of swing (0.00 / 0)

is kind of a big deal. A huge break in one direction.

by: JC @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 13:30:20 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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I can't seem to understand this logic. Two weeks ago Hillary had 20 % (0.00 / 0)

more voters saying she should be elected, according to the polls. But those 20% of the voters did not stay with her until the end. In Ohio, half of them left her, for she only "won" by 10 %. In Texas, only 4% stayed with her. What happened to the other 10% of the voters from two weeks ago in Ohio? What happened to the 15% of voters from two weeks ago in Texas?

they went to Obama? they stayed home? they voted Republican? I cannot understand what happened here.

by: eyesonthestreet @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 14:26:23 PM CST

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Most of the movement (0.00 / 0)

to Obama happened in the week after Wisconsin, where Obama effectively closed a 20 point lead to near zero in Ohio.

Ohio broke back for Clinton over the weekend.

If I were her campaign I would feel pretty good about the effectiveness in their advertising.

by: fladem @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 15:40:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I don't think so, here are the polls: (0.00 / 0)

the Wisconsin election was on 2/19, as I recall, and on that day, Clinton was ahead in both TX and OH: (And as it turns out, Obama seems to be ahead in the Texas caucuses, and will get more delegates, and therefore "win" Texas. But I do not see a "broke back" in Ohio, the numbers just do not show that. Unless you have other polls, I still do not believe anything either one did really changed the minds of voters in Ohio.

Texas:

14 days out................................. 50 C/ 45 O (SUSA)
2/20..................................... ........47 C/ 44 O (rasmussen)
2/24 (after TX debate)................. 46 C/ 45 O (rasmussen)
flip
2/25............................................. 49 O /45 C(SUSA)
2/27............................................. 48 O/ 44 C (rasmussen)
3/3 day before.............................. 49 O/ 48 C (SUSA)
3/4 election Day Results

Ohio

2/19.....................................52 C/ 43 O (SUSA)
2/24(before OH debate)........47 C/ 39 O (U of cinn)
2/25.....................................50 C /46 O PPP
2/25.....................................48 C/ 43 O (rasmussen)
2/28 (after debate)...............47 C/ 45 O (rasmussen)
3/3 day before..................... 54 C/ 44 O (SUSA)

by: eyesonthestreet @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 19:22:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]