I had promised myself that I wasn’t going to write about the Democratic presidential nomination campaign anymore, or at least that I wouldn’t write about it as an unresolved, ongoing process anymore. However, with very few new general election polls after the holiday weekend, what’s one more for old time’s sake?
Anyway, in advance of the Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting this Saturday, DNC lawyers have issued an advisory opinion that the DNC is required to strip Michigan and Florida of at least half their delegates. Assuming for a moment that Florida and Michigan are seated with half delegations based on the results of the January 22nd primaries, we are presented with the following delegate chart:
* = Florida pledged delegates currently split 105 Clinton, 69 Obama, and 11 Edwards, based on the results of the January primary and two Edwards pledged delegates flipping to Obama. Superdelegate totals in the state currently stand at 8 Clinton, 5 Obama, and 13 uncommitted.
** = Michigan pledged delegates current split 73 Clinton, 22 Obama, and 33 uncommitted, based on the results of the January primary and April district conventions. Superdelegates totals in the state currently stand at 7 Clinton, 5 Obama, and 17 uncommitted.
This leads to a grand total of Obama 2,078.5, Clinton 1,919.5, Edwards 12.5, and 222.5 uncommitted. Obama would be 38 delegates away from officially clinching at this point, and Obama + Edwards would be 25.5 away from officially clinching. If reports of Obama banking three dozen or so superdelegates in order to officially clinch on June 4th or June 5th are accurate, then Obama will comfortably clinch before the June 14th Michigan state convention.
So, barring something truly shocking, Obama will reach the magic number no later than next Thursday. The nomination campaign, and all major federal primaries will be over. From that point, we will have exactly five months to come together, crush Republicans, and build the enormous trifecta.
This is the final nomination at a glance post that I intend to make. Tomorrow, the 2008 Presidential Election Forecast, which I will update just about every day between now and November, will replace it
The Democratic nomination campaign is over, and there is no need to keep a running, updated count anymore. Massive pro-Obama superdelegate movement, combined with the John Edwards endorsement, were the final straws. At this point, Obama now holds a commanding lead, even if Florida and Michigan are seated exactly as the Clinton campaign hopes they are.
* Two Edwards delegates in Florida have now indicated they will support Obama
Even if Michigan and Florida are seated based entirely on the results of the January “primaries,” which is extremely unlikely, then Obama leads by 135 delegates even without the remaining 25 Edwards delegates and 19 Michigan uncommitted delegates added to his total. There is simply no longer any path for Clinton to reach the nomination. This is probably why Obama is poised to declare victory on Tuesday night:
Senator Barack Obama has chosen to spend Tuesday night not in Kentucky or Oregon, the two states that will be holding their primaries that day, or even at his home in Chicago. Instead, Mr. Obama’s staff announced on Saturday, he will be returning to Iowa, where he won the Democratic caucuses way back in January and has at least two good reasons to revisit now.
Much more than nostalgia seems to have motivated that decision. If things continue to go as well for Mr. Obama this week as they have so far this month, with a romp in North Carolina, a strong showing in Indiana and daily growth in his support among party superdelegates, he could actually end up with enough pledged delegates to proclaim, without fear of contradiction, that he is now the Democratic nominee for president.
They should change the “could” to “will” in that article. As a result, it will be exciting to live blog Tuesday’s returns. Here are a few more notes on the end of the nomination at a glance series:
On Tuesday night, Obama will also be able to secure victory in a metric that has long been important to me: the popular vote. Even if Michigan and Florida are included in measures of popular participation, notions to which I am actually quite open because no other delegate selection events were made available to the residents of those two states, about 260,000 more participants in Democratic delegate selection events preferred Obama to Clinton. While the uncommitted vote in Michigan and lack of popular totals in four caucus states make a final count impossible, exit polls and voter turnout estimates among those groups provide conclusive, incontrovertible evidence that more participants in Democratic delegate selection events supported Obama than Clinton. This metric might not matter to you, but it even with all the imperfections in the process it does matter to me, and I am very glad that our presumptive nominee will finish ahead in this category. (See here and here for more information on this.)
Biggest Upset Ever. The enormity of Obama’s accomplishment should not be underestimated. He succeeded where Ted Kennedy, Gary Hart and Bill Bradley failed: defeating a candidate with overwhelming institutional support to win the Democratic nomination. Going into this campaign, the Hillary Clinton had fifteen years of power building at her back, and Obama was able to edge her out in only fifteen months.
Best Nomination Campaign, Ever: The three nomination campaigns I remember when I was growing up were 1984, 1988 and 1992, all of which were lengthy, unpredictable contests with numerous twists and turns. The next three Democratic contests, 1996, 2000 and 2004 were incredibly weak and boring by comparison. For quite some time, I have longed for a campaign when everyone got to have their say, not just Iowa and New Hampshire. I longed for a real contest over who would lead the Democratic Party, and even though the ideological component of this campaign was mainly identity-based, we finally got another one of those. As a blogger and a political junkie, I wanted few things more than to be able to become a leading expert on delegates and delegate counting. Over the last four months, I have relished that role about as much as I have ever enjoyed anything as a blogger. Truly wonderful.
As Matt noted below, Obama is going to get crushed in West Virginia tonight. In fact, crushing victories look par for the course the rest of the way out:
Current polling projects that Obama only needs 42.5 superdelegate endorsements between now and June 3rd in order to clinch the nomination on June 4th, at least according to his campaign’s count.
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The Clinton campaign count doesn’t help her that much, as Obama only needs 35.8% of the remaining superdelegates, Edwards delegates, and Michigan delegates in order to secure the nomination. It buys her time, but really only until June 15th, and does not change the outcome. Don’t expect superdelegates to accept what will be a clearlybogus argument on the popular vote, either. And, as a final problem, one of her pledged delegates switched to Obama today.
Ah, I’ll miss the nomination at a glance series. What are your predictions for tonight?
Here is a round-up of what has been a series really bad bits of news for Hillary Clinton’s campaign today:
Obama will never fall behind in any overall delegate count, every again. Obama will be ahead of Clinton is delegates even if Florida is seated as is, and even if Obama gets zero delegates from Michigan, and even if Obama dails to net anymore superdelegates. Polling conducted before Indiana and North Carolina projected Clinton to net 31 pledged delegates from the remaining six contests. However, Democratic Convention Watch projects Obama ahead by 37.5 delegates even if Florida is seated based on January 29thth results, and even if Obama receives zero delegates from Michigan. In other words, there is no conceivable delegate count under which Clinton will ever be ahead, ever again.
Of course, that above situation, where Obama can’t lose, assumes Edwards delegates will stay neutral. However, John Edwards admits that he voted for Obama.
Of course, that above situation, where Obama can’t lose, assumes that polls won’t get any worse for Clinton. However, Obama is surging in the Rasmussen tracking poll to the point where Rasmussen announced it will discontinue the tracking poll.
Of course, that above situation, where can’t lose, assumes that Obama will receive zero delegates from Michigan. However, the entire leadership of the Michigan Democratic Party now supports giving Obama 59 delegates from Michigan.
The nomination campaign is rapidly collapsing. Given how fast this is taking place since pundits declared the race over, it appears that the national media could have done this anytime since Wisconsin if they so desired. Sad to say it, but they really do still have the power.
I know we are supposed to move on from the nomination campaign at this point, but in case there was any lingering doubt Clinton could still win the nomination, the new deal proposed from the Michigan Democratic Party should be an end to it. Every high-level Michigan Democrat now appears to be behind a 69-59 pledged delegate split, plus seating the superdelegates:
Michigan Democratic leaders settled today on a plan to give presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton 69 delegates and Barack Obama 59 as a way to get the delegates seated at the national convention.(…)
The state party’s executive committee voted today to ask the national party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to approve the 69-59 delegate split when it meets May 31. The plan would shrink Clinton’s delegate edge in Michigan from 18 to 10 and allow the state’s 157 delegates and superdelegates to be seated at the convention.
The state’s Democratic leaders also pushed back the date of the party’s State Central Committee meeting from May 17 to June 14 to give the rules committee time to act. The party is to pick 45 pledged delegates and two superdelegates at that meeting. It chose 83 pledged delegates last month at district conventions.
A separate plan submitted to the rules committee by Democratic National Committee members Joel Ferguson of Michigan and Jon Ausman of Florida, both superdelegates, apparently will be withdrawn now that the Michigan executive committee has settled on the 69-59 plan. Under their proposal, delegates would have been allocated based on the primary election results, but have had only half a vote each. The superdelegates would have had full voting rights.(…)
The 69-59 split was proposed last week by four prominent Michigan Democrats who have been working for months to find a way to get Michigan’s delegates seated at the Aug. 25-28 convention in Denver: U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger, U.S. Sen. Carl Levin and DNC member Debbie Dingell.
While this may not be the exact plan that will pass, it is probably pretty close to the exact plan that will pass. Further, because of hte people backing the proposal, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will get a better deal than this on Michigan. When it or something similar does pass, Florida will become irrelevant, and probably be seated based on something similar to the January 29th results. Here is the delegate count under that scenario:
Even with Florida seated as is, Clinton trails by 96 delegates when the Michigan Party’s plan is enacted. Further, since Edwards has declined to make an endorsement, his 32 delegates are now effectively uncommitted superdelegates. So, this means that the best case-scenario for Clinton right now is that she trails by 96 delegates with 549.5 delegates remaining. So, even in Clitnon’s best case scenario, Obama only needs 227 of the remaining 550.5 delegates, or 41.3%, to win the nomination.
Clinton’s best-case scenario still overwhelmingly favors Obama. So yes, the outcome of the nomination campaign is now a foregone conclusion.
Update: Yes, Florida probably won’t be seated as is, and I probably should not have written that it would be. Still, that is why this is Clinton’s best-case scenario. And it ain’t very good.
Update 2: The Clinton campaign rejects the proposal, which isn’t surprising because it puts her nowhere near the nomination. However, considering its backers, most of whom are Clinton people, I still say that something better than this for Clinton is extremely unlikely.
The Obama campaign has started to keep a running count of superdelegates on its results page. While it does not provide a list of the superdelegate endorsements, the total is still a useful public service. Also, I can understand why they wouldn’t want to list the individual superdelegates, given that any errors could cause real problems from them. At this point, I’m fine that they only provide totals.
Some might object that I am not accurately portraying the position of the Obama campaign on Michigan and Florida. While I list the Obama campaign arguing for a 184-184 split of the 368 delegates from those two states, the results page on the Obama campaign website lists each state as receiving zero delegates. However, this is a contradiction from the Obama campaign, not an error on my part. While the campaign lists each state with zero delegates, it has also stated that it wants to see Michigan and Florida both seated at the convention, but with a 50-50 split of delegates. So, the campaign is arguing for 184-184 in some places, and 0-0 in others. Since we all know that both states will be seated at the convention, I will stick with 184-184 for now.
Clinton has actually picked up a couple of delegates recently, one in Pennsylvania (now projected at 85-73 by Green Papers) and one half in American Samoa (now projected at Clinton 2-1 Obama by Green Papers), for a net of three delegates.
I have also separated out Michigan and Florida in these tables so that they make more sense. The 45 remaining delegates from Michigan will be chosen on May 17th at the state party convention, I believe. At that convention, according to her campaign’s count, Clinton will pick up twenty-six more delegates and net at least seven. After that, the Rules and Bylaws Committee will hold a hearing on Michigan and Florida on May 31st. If nothing changes from that meeting, then the Credentials Committee takes over the matter.
Here are the future delegate projections, with the state projections based on current polls:
This brings us to the following, dueling projections:
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Obama Total
2,140
2,002
19
211
2,208.5
Clinton Total
2,048.5
1,992.5
37
335
2,208.5
Clearly, under the Obama count, the nomination campaign is effectively over. Obama is still favored even under the Clinton count, since he would only need 46.9% of the remaining delegates to reach the magic number.
Clinton’s path to the nomination involves a combination of two rather unlikely steps. First, force a the campaign all the way to the convention by preventing Obama from reaching the magic number under Clinton’s most favorable count. This will require both forcing an extremely favorable deal on Michigan and Florida and significantly improving upon her current projected delegate totals in remaining states. Second, it will require her to destroy Obama as a viable general election candidate to such a degree that Obama superdelegates actually start shifting to Clinton. To date, not a single Obama superdelegate has switched to Clinton, so once again this seems extremely unlikely.
The nomination campaign is taking a while, but it certainly seems like Obama is headed to victory, probably sometime in mid-June.
Which leads to the following, dueling projections:
Democratic Nomination Delegate Projection
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Obama Count
2,129
2,003
18
219
2,208
Clinton Count
2,044
1,989
37
299
2,208
There is a notion that the nomination campaign needs to end in June so that, among other things, the party can heal its wounds in time for the general election. However, I’m not sure that having an extra month or two will make a difference, given the identity gaps in the primary are actually widening. Check out these numbers from Pew:
At this point, the primary campaign has regressed to pre-2007 Philadelphia levels. If African-Americans are supporting Obama 7-1, and whites who did not attend college are supporting Clinton by nearly a 3-1 margin, then really the nomination campaign isn’t about much of anything except for race. This is what happened in Philadelphia in several past primary elections, where about 80% of whites would vote of the white candidate in a primary, and about 80% of African-Americans would vote for the African-American candidate in the mayoral primary. This changed in the most recent mayoral primary, where the top two candidates, Michael Nutter and Tom Knox, both had diverse, multi-racial coalitions. I have to say, its pretty pathetic that the national Democratic Party is now lagging behind Philadelphia in terms of race relations.
I have to wonder how divisions of this nature can be healed just given an extra month or two. I also have to wonder if this was always the danger we faced in the primary. Clinton and Obama are both pretty centrist, and do not differ from each other on policy that much (although there are some difference on health care and telecom policy). As such, wasn’t this really all about identity from the start? For a primary campaign to be based on identity instead of on policy is a ticking time bomb for any coalition, especially one that is built on historically under-represented groups in D.C. like African-Americans, Latinos, women and the LGBT community.
Now, the counter point to this argument would be that both Clinton and Obama are beating McCain right now anyway, so it doesn’t seem like the coalition is all that frayed. Further, identity plays the decisive factor in virtually every campaign, so this really isn’t any different–it is just more overt. So, while the identity gaps between Clinton and Obama are pretty striking, perhaps we make too much of these differences in the party.
Which leads to the following, dueling projections:
Democratic Nomination Delegate Projection
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Obama Count
2,161
2,017
18
219
2,208
Clinton Count
2,076
2.003
37
299
2,208
A few thoughts on these numbers:
Clinton has not gained any ground among pledged delegates in March and April combined. Here is the tally, according to Green Papers:
PA: Clinton +10
Iowa 2nd and Third Tier: Obama +9
Colorado 2nd Tier: Clinton +2
Mississippi: Obama +7
Wyoming: Obama +2
Vermont: Obama +3
Texas: Obama +3
Rhode Island: Clinton +5
Ohio: Clinton +7
That results in a net gain of zero for both candidates in March and April. Throw in Michigan, and Obama actually gained 31 pledged delegates.
Obama has netted 28 superdelegates during March and April, according to Democratic Convention Watch. At the start of March, Clinton led 240-193 among supers, but as of this writing her lead has been cut to 261-242. That is a net gain of 28 superdelegates, and 28 overall delegates, for Obama over March and April. In other words, overall Obama is actually gaining ground in terms of delegates, despite the perception that he is stumbling.
After Tuesday, there will only be 217 pledged delegates left, plus 45 at the Michigan state party convention on May 17th. This means that unless there is a huge superdelegate rush over the next week, in seven days more superdelegates will be left than pledged delegates. May 6th is thus really the last time that voters, rather than superdelegates, will be in the spotlight during the campaign.
There seems to be a conventional wisdom forming that Clinton needs to win Indiana and “come close” in North Carolina, which I presume to mean at least closer than her nine-point victory in Pennsylvania. Given that she has not made up any ground since Wisconsin, and given how few pledged delegates remain, that certainly seems fair as a minimum requirement for Clinton. An argument could even be made that she needs to win North Carolina, given her current deficit.
As near as I can tell, the basic rationale behind the CW is that Clinton will be able to start making up significant ground in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. So, if (with the exception of Oregon and North Carolina) she can continue a string of victories straight from Pennsylvania to the end, and get a favorable Michigan and Florida ruling at he end of May, then she might be close enough, and have enough momentum, for superdelegates to put her over the top. However, if she gets waxed on May 6th, none of that matters.
At the very least, it is something of relief that nine superdelegates (split 5-4 in favor of Obama) have endorsed over the last two days, and that Obama could plausibly deliver a CW-knockout blow with a sweep on May 6th. For those of us who are looking for the campaign to come to a resolution in either May or June, that is very welcome news.
Back on Friday evening, I argued, in a fashion that would have made Michel Foucault proud, that there is no objective, “true,” delegate count, but instead only the power each campaign possessed to make its delegate count a reality. In other words, the truth of delegate counts and the power over the selection and credentialing of, not to mention rule making for, delegates are interchangeable concepts. As such, my new goal in delegate counting is not to determine the “true” delegate count, but instead to accurately determine the delegate count being argued for, and kept by, both the Obama and Clinton campaigns. From that point, we will see who has enough power over the process in order to make their delegate count a reality.
Which leads to the following, dueling projections:
Democratic Nomination Delegate Projection
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Obama Count
2,155
2,013
18
230
2,208
Clinton Count
2,070
1,999
37
310
2,208
The disparity in the “remaining” column in the two counts comes from the argument over Florida and Michigan. The Clinton campaign count currently leaves 45 Michigan pledged delegates (all PLEO and at-large), 21 Michigan superdelegates, and 14 Florida superdelegates in the undetermined column. The 45 Michigan pledged delegates will be determined at the state party convention on May 17th, and will allow Clinton to gain some ground in her count. The rest of the “remaining” column in both counts are non-add-on superdelegates from outside Florida and Michigan.
Since it is one of the few times I have been able to apply Michel Foucault to something outside of academia, I am enjoying this new post-modern delegate counting that eschews a belief in an objective delegate reality. Even so, I do actually have a personal preference on how Michigan and Florida should be decided. If I were in charge, I would seat Florida’s pledged delegates as is, and seat the pledged delegates from Michigan Clinton 73-55 Obama. From that point, I would strip both states of their superdelegates. This way, the voters of the two states are not punished, but the superdelegates who are responsible putting both states in this mess are. I actually think that this should become the standard punishment for states that flout the primary calendar: keep the pledged delegates, but strip the superdelegates with no possibility of reinstatement. I also really like the idea of superdelegates whining that they should be seated at the convention. That would be an hilarious press conference.
With Clinton + Edwards coming within four delegates of Obama, the possibility of a convention fight looms. In order to avoid fights at the credentials committee, rules committee, or floor of the convention, it is important for Obama to secure the as many of the 28 remaining uncommitted delegates from Michigan as possible, and to improve on the delegate projections for states and territories yet to hold nominating contests. It is also important that the remaining superdelegates commit to a candidate, just as almost every primary voter or caucus goer has already had to commit to a candidate. I still don’t see a way for Clinton to pass Obama, short of Edwards moving his delegates to her in a block. Remarkable that Edwards still has an important role to play in the campaign, even at this late date.
After a long pause, delegate counts will start to increase again for both candidates. On Saturday, Obama will win 36 of the 55 uncommitted delegates from Michigan:
Thousands of Democrats will gather across the state Saturday to choose the 83 people and 15 alternates they want to represent them at the national convention in Denver in August.(…)
So Michigan is going ahead with its congressional district conventions at 10 a.m. Saturday, where 83 delegates will be selected based on the outcome of the primary, which Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York won with 55% of the vote. She will receive 47 of the delegates and 13 alternates while the people who voted “uncommitted” will get 36 of the delegates and two alternates. Another 45 delegates will be selected at the May 17 meeting of the Democratic Party’s state central committee.(…)
Some Obama supporters have said they’re worried Clinton supporters will try to poach some uncommitted delegates.
“But it’s highly unlikely that’s going to happen,” Brewer said. “There’s going to be some pretty intense questioning of these candidates.”
So, in all likelihood, Obama will win 36 of the uncommitted delegates from Michigan on Saturday, and then win the remaining 19 at the Michigan state convention on May 17th. Michigan will then have a pledged delegate breakdown of Clinton 73-55 Obama. Everyone knows that Michigan will have a delegation seated at the convention, and the 73-55 looks like the only option right now. In the same vein, Florida’s delegation will almost certainly be Clinton 105, Obama 67, and Edwards 13. For all the wrangling and arguments over Michigan and Florida, the deal will just end up being what I proposed from the beginning: seat Florida as is, and give Obama Michigan’s 55 uncommitted delegates.
While this solution might not be perfectly democratic, neither is the nomination campaign. The important thing is that is reasonably fair, and that it will end the increasingly irritating argument over these two states. Obama probably would have pulled even with Clinton in a Michigan revote, but nine delegates strikes me as a reasonable penalty for pulling his name from the ballot. This is especially the case given that Edwards would have won some of those uncommitted delegates if he was still in the campaign.
With the outcome of Michigan and Florida coming into focus, it is time to start counting delegates with Michigan and Florida included. Here is my first stab:
Democratic Nomination Delegate Count
Type
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Remaining
50% + 1
Pledged
1,416
1,253
18
566
1,627
MI + FL
122
178
13
0
NA
Super
233
267
0
279
—
Add-on
8
3
0
70
NA
Total
1,771
1,698
31
915
2,208
From this point, Obama needs 437 delegates to win the nomination, or 47.8% of the remaining delegates, while Clinton needs 510 delegates, or 55.7%. Given that an Obama lead of 73 delegates sounds significantly less imposing than the previous leads we have seen, does Clinton have a chance to catch up? According to current polling, here are projections for the remaining pledged delegates:
From this point, Obama would need 115 of the remaining 271, or 42.5%, of the non-add-on, non-Pelosi Club superdelegates in order to secure the nomination. Clinton would need 188 of those same 271 superdelegates, or 69.4%, in order to win. The thirty-one Edwards delegates might also come into play here, making an Edwards endorsement key. If Edwards were to endorse Obama, it would effectively end the campaign. If Edwards were to endorse Clinton, it would breathe new life into her chances, and give her a legitimate, though still unlikely, shot at winning the nomination.
The final delegate selection events take place on June 21st, when seven add-on delegates are chosen at six state conventions around the country. It is a reasonable bet that the nomination campaign will continue until that point. Superdelegates have been given a deadline of July 1st by many party leaders, and it is difficult to imagine they would continue to wait much longer after June 21st anyway. Also, Edwards should be pushed to make an endorsement if the campaign remains undecided by that point.
As far as the popular vote goes, I don’t think it will come too much into play. If Michigan and Florida are included in the totals, and if most or all of the Michigan uncommitted are allocated to Obama, and if popular estimations from caucus states without popular votes are included, and if one takes into account the likely 200K to 300K Clinton will gain in the popular vote between now and June 3rd, the difference between the candidates will be very small, and also quite debatable. In the end, this is 4,415 separate, small campaigns to elect delegates, and those delegates will decide the nomination. It looks like Obama has enough, but barring a surprise victory in Pennsylvania, I don’t expect him to seal it up until June. Clinton dropping out after a big Obama sweep on May 6th is possible, but with West Virginia on May 13th, and Kentucky on May 20th, I won’t hold my breath.
Update: Post edited to reflect new polls that now show Obama ahead in Indiana.
Is it April 9th where you are? I think it might be April 10th where I am, but I’m not sure. Anyway, here are the latest polling averages are delegate projections:
The “vacant” column indicates three superdelegates-to-be who have endorsed Obama, but whom are not technically superdelegates yet (vacant Illinois DNC spot, vacant SEIU DNC spot, vacant MD-04 congressional spot). The Michigan and Florida columns add in the superdelegates who have declared, but leave the rest undecided (or, more accurately, “undetermined.”) Since we know that Michigan and Florida will be seated, but we just don’t know who those delegates will be, that seems like a reasonable way to include those delegations in the count for now.
It may seem strange to be posting a delegate count update from Israel, but people are even talking about it over here. This is a truly global primary.
I have decided to discontinue my personal pledged delegate count, and just go with the pledged delegate count from the Green Papers from now on, since I agree with their count 100%. For superdelegates, I will still be using Democratic Convention Watch, which is the best source out there. Although it was not a factor in choosing these two sources, it is kind of cool that two DIY sources are the best places to go for accurate delegate counts on the 2008 nomination campaign. Who needs big media, anyway? Here are the latest totals:
The Green Papers pledged delegates, plus my superdelegate detailed count, give overall totals of Obama 1,682–1,524 Clinton. With a magic number of 2,022.5 (the two vacancies reduce the magic number by 1), Obama needs only 41.5%, or 340.5, of the remaining 821 uncommitted delegates to win the nomination.
The delegate projection for the remaining primary and caucus states is as follows, based on current polling averages:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
State
Date
O %
C %
P. Del
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Pennsylvania
Apr 22
41.6%
48.6%
158
73
85
Guam
May 03
—
—
4
2
2
Indiana
May 06
44.3%
51.3%
72
33
39
North Carolina
May 06
51.3%
36.0%
115
66
49
West Virginia
May 13
24.5%
49.0%
28
9
19
Kentucky
May 20
29.0%
58.0%
51
17
34
Oregon
May 20
—
—
52
27
25
Puerto Rico
Jun 01
—
—
55
23
32
Montana
Jun 03
—
—
16
8
8
South Dakota
Jun 03
—
—
15
8
7
Total
June 10
—
—
566
266
300
Add this in to the above numbers, and it comes to a grand total of Obama 1,948–1,824 Clinton, with only the 255 remaining superdelegates to go. Obama would need 74.5, or just 29.3%, of the remaining superdelegates to reach the 2,022.5 magic number. At that point, he would be able to dictate what happens in Florida and Michigan. In order to have any chance, Clinton is going to need to significantly outperform current polls in remaining states, come up with a convincing new argument for superdelegates, and somehow finagle a good deal for Michigan and Florida. And even if she pulls all of that off, each aspect of which is unlikely, Obama will still be favored because he will have more than zero delegates in Michigan. In other words, it would be a shocker if Obama wasn’t the nominee, and if the nomination campaign wasn’t functionally over by the end of June.
Notes on these numbers in the extended entry.
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Here are the latest polling averages in the remaining states and territories, along with crude delegate projections based on those averages:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
State
Date
O %
C %
P. Del
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Pennsylvania
Apr 22
41.8%
48.2%
158
74
84
Guam
May 03
—
—
4
2
2
Indiana
May 06
43.0%
52.0%
72
33
39
North Carolina
May 06
51.3%
36.0%
115
66
49
West Virginia
May 13
24.5%
49.0%
28
9
19
Kentucky
May 20
29.0%
58.0%
51
17
34
Oregon
May 20
—
—
52
27
25
Puerto Rico
Jun 01
—
—
55
23
32
Montana
Jun 03
—
—
16
8
8
South Dakota
Jun 03
—
—
15
8
7
Total
June 10
—
—
566
267
299
These numbers provide two key insights:
First, Obama clearly still has some work to do. While dropping a net of 32 pledged delegates to Clinton in the remaining states would hardly be crippling to his campaign, it also wouldn’t be great. In terms of general election momentum, the last thing Obama needs is to stumble home to the nomination, with Clinton winning the majority of the remaining states and delegates. In terms of winning the nomination, Obama also doesn’t want to give Clinton any light at all, especially considering how the narrative is starting to focus on her slim hopes to win the nomination. The Obama goal should be to at least split the remaining delegates, and pull out victories in Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. Not only would that close off any possible remaining paths to the nomination for Clinton, it would also shield Obama from any negative momentum that might accrue by falling backward into the nomination.
Second, these numbers show just how inaccurate it is to measure progress in the campaign by looking at who won what states. Specifically, even though Clinton is projected to win both Pennsylvania and Indiana by decent margins right now, in the April 22nd to May 6th period she is only projected to gain one pledged delegate on Obama. This is because, in terms of delegates, how much someone wins a state by matters far more than just winning a state, and Obama is way ahead in North Carolina. In fact, winning congressional districts is actually way more important than winning states, given that 65% of pledged delegates are determined at the congressional district level, while only 35% are determined at the statewide level. Further, which congressional districts you win matter just as much as which states a candidate wins since, just like states, the number of delegates in each district varies significantly (the range is from a low of three delegates to a high of ten delegates). Yet further, it also matters how much you win congressional districts by, since different amounts of delegates are handed out for different levels of victory. In other words, the strategy for winning delegates in the Democratic nomination campaign has little or no bearing on the strategy to win the Electoral College, making electability arguments on who won what primary state a truly pointless apples and oranges exercise. We might as well argue which NBA player would do better in the NFL based on their basketball skills.
As far as ending the nomination campaign goes, Obama is 8% away from doing that in Pennsylvania, and 10% away from doing that in Indiana. Given the direction of the campaign and Obama’s current resource advantage, both seem tantalizing within reach. However, even though I will be voting for him tonight at my local Democratic Party ward meeting, I will still remain utterly shocked if he is able to win my home state of Pennsylvania.
In this scenario, Clinton would also be projected to win the remaining add-on delegates 7-5. This leads to a grand total of Obama 1,941.5-1,831.5 Clinton, with 255 superdelegates, five currently vacant superdelegates, and the Florida and Michigan delegations remaining. Without Michigan and Florida, Obama would need only 80 of the 255 superdelegates, or 31.4%, to win the nomination. Even with Florida included as is, Obama would still lead by 65 delegates. It is only when a Michigan delegation with zero Obama delegates is added in that Clinton is able to catch up and forced a brokered convention.
Overall, while the Indiana poll has improved the situation for Clinton, her path the nomination is still dependent on a Michigan delegation that shuts Obama out entirely, and the Obama-heavy credentials committee will never approve such a delegation (nor should they). The main improvement that the Indiana poll shows for Clinton is that she might now have an outside chance of winning the popular vote. If she can snag big wins in Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico, and deny Obama a measurable popular vote victory anywhere outside of North Carolina, she might just be able to close the 800,000 vote gap. If she pulls that off, the momentum will be almost entirely in her direction, she might perform better in general election polls than McCain, and have a real argument that superdelegates would consider (popular vote victory, momentum and general election performance puts a lot on the table). It is a real longshot, given that she is heavily out-resourced and that the momentum is currently with Obama, but I will admit that it is not entirely impossible.
The presents a serious problem for Clinton, because Obama will reach 1,627 pledged delegates on May 20th. So, the first say that Clinton can reduce the pledged delegate gap from its current size will also be the day when Obama reaches 50% + 1 in pledged delegates. Further, between now and then Obama will continue to close the gap in terms of superdelegates. Given that Obama already leads by nine delegates even with Michigan and Florida included, the situation could be particularly grim for Clinton on April 19th, when most of the 55 uncommitteed Michigan delegates are selected. Assuming continued superdelegate gains and that Obama wins the clear majority of the uncommitted Michigan delegates, by May 7th Obama could be ahead by 60-70 delegates even with Michigan and Florida included.
I’m starting to see the campaign slowly resolve itself. While I wish there wasn’t such a large gap until the Pennsylvania primary, and while I wish there wasn’t such a large gap from the end of the voting until the convention, it is becoming increasingly difficult to see how Clinton manages to push the campaign past June. Her superdelegate lead won’t last, she can’t make up any significant ground in pledged delegates, and Obama won’t have zero Michigan delegates. Add all of those together, and in a few weeks time I won’t be the only one who refers to Obama as the presumptive nominee.
In the extended entry, I provide a complete breakdown of the delegate situation. It is far more expansive than any breakdown I have completed in the past.
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One interesting note is that Clinton has 40 superdelegates from New York, while Obama has 22 from Illinois. In other words, half of Clinton’s superdelegate lead comes from the difference in size between their home states. Throw in Clinton’s 10-0 lead among Arkansas superdelegates, and her superdelegate advantage almost entirely disappears.
Here are the upcoming states:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
State
Date
O %
C %
P. Del
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Pennsylvania
Apr 22
36.4%
52.6%
158
73
85
Guam
May 03
—
—
4
2
2
Indiana
May 06
40.0%
25.0%
72
41
31
North Carolina
May 06
47.7%
41.3%
115
60
55
West Virginia
May 13
22.0%
43.0%
28
11
17
Kentucky
May 20
—
—
51
21
30
Oregon
May 20
—
—
52
27
25
Puerto Rico
Jun 01
—
—
55
24
31
Montana
Jun 03
—
—
16
9
7
South Dakota
Jun 03
—
—
15
8
7
Total
June 10
44.5%
45.5%
566
278
288
Add the projected future totals to Total 3, plus six more add-on delegates apiece, and the grand total is Obama 2,020.5–2,013.5 Clinton. No one would be anywhere near 2,208, and we would he headed all the way through the convention. Finding some sort of solution in Michigan, like a part-run “firehouse” caucus, is paramount in order to avoid a brokered convention. Without a Michigan solution, even the undecided superdelegats might not be able to end the nomination campaign before the convention.
Obama looks virtually certain to reach 2,024 without Florida and Michigan sometime in June, at which point I imagine his campaign will declare victory. This might be connected to the campaign’s truculence on the Michigan situation.
There is a growing sentiment that the “delegate math” favors Obama, and that he will wrap-up the nomination in June. While this is a sentiment with which I generally agree, upon closer analysis of the delegate math I think that Clinton has a better chance than many realize. In fact, a close look at the delegate math indicates that there is a good chance we will either head to the convention without a presumptive nominee, or head to the convention with a barely presumptive nominee. By “barely presumptive,” I mean a candidate who is just slightly over 2,208, with that total possibly disputed by the opposing campaign. Overall, I would say there is a greater than 50% we will face one of those two scenarios.
This delegate projection puts the Michigan and Florida pledged delegates and add-on in the “remaining” column, since they are still to be decided. The Michigan and Florida superdelegates who have endorsed a candidate are included in the superdelegate totals, while those who have not are placed in the “remaining” column. I think this is the most accurate way to count the delegates right now, since it is safe to assume that Michigan and Florida will be seated, while it is also reasonable to categorize the two states as currently undetermined.
Now, let’s take a look at current polling for the remaining primary states, and the delegate projections that polling creates:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
State
Date
O %
C %
P. Del
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Pennsylvania
Apr 22
36.8%
51.8%
158
74
84
Guam
May 03
—
—
4
2
2
Indiana
May 06
40.0%
25.0%
72
41
31
North Carolina
May 06
47.7%
41.3%
115
61
54
West Virginia
May 13
22.0%
43.0%
28
11
17
Kentucky
May 20
—
—
51
21
30
Oregon
May 20
—
—
52
27
25
Puerto Rico
Jun 01
—
—
55
24
31
Montana
Jun 03
—
—
16
9
7
South Dakota
Jun 03
—
—
15
8
7
Florida
???
39.0%
55.0%
185
77
108
Michigan
???
41.0%
41.0%
128
64
64
Total
June 10
46.0%
44.5%
879
419
460
In the states without polls, I took some liberties in projecting the delegates based on the results of similar states. This projects to Clinton 460-419 Obama for the remaining states, along with a 10-7 split in favor of Clinton among the add-on delegates (I am projecting a tie in Michigan). Overall, this produces a total of Obama 2,084.5–2,005.5 Clinton, with 299 non-add on superdelegates and 26 Edwards delegates as the deciding factor. From that point, Obama would need 38.0% of the remaining delegates to win, while Clinton would need 62.0%.
Now, 62.0% of the remaining superdelegates and Edwards delegates sounds like a tall order. However, keep in mind that these are all pretty dedicated, self-identified Democrats, and that they also tend to be older than 30. Both of these are groups among whom Clinton holds an advantage among voters, which partially explains her edge in superdelegates to date. If she is able to slice off a few delegates in multi-tiered caucus states and / or outperform the delegate projections in remaining states, then she needs even less than 62.0% of the remaining delegates. For example, if she acquires twenty-four more delegates through such means, then she only needs 55.7% of the remaining delegates to win, which is almost identical to her current advantage among superdelegates. A string of wins starting in Pennsylvania could give her the momentum needed to outperform the delegate totals, and also provide her with an argument that superdelegates might buy. In other words, winning the nomination remains doable for Clinton.
Now, with all of this said, the math still clearly favors Obama. After all, he could also outperform these projections, build momentum of his own, and add to his delegate totals in multi-tiered caucus states. Further, since Super Tuesday, he has added 78 new superdelegates to his total, while Clinton has only added 20. Yet further, it will be difficult for Clinton to overtake Obama in the popular vote, where he currently leads by about 750,000 once caucus states are figured into the totals. That will be a difficult argument for any currently undecided superdelegate to ignore. However, an honest look at these numbers also indicates that it will be very difficult for Obama to reach 2,208 by June 10th, the day that the DNC mandates caucus and primary voting ends. While he will have a lead, there is a pretty good chance there will still be enough undecided superdelegates and Edwards delegates to prevent either candidate from reaching 2,208 by June 10th. Further, even if Obama does barely eek over 2,208 in June, it is unlikely that the Clinton campaign will concede defeat as long as they still believe they can flip enough superdelegates to win the nomination.
In other words, a close look at the delegate math indicates that there is a good chance we will either head to the convention without a presumptive nominee, or head to the convention with a barely presumptive nominee. At the very least, we are headed all the way through June. A question we might want to start asking is how many delegates Obama needs to have in order to get Clinton to concede before the convention in either June or July. Personally, I don’t think that number is 2,208, since they will almost certainly believe they can flip a handful of superdelegates. The actual number might be something like 2,240 or even higher, which would make the delegate flipping task virtually impossible. Other than losing a state like Pennsylvania or Florida, such an enormous delegate total strikes me as just about the only way Clinton will concede before the convention. If you have noticed anything else in her campaign behavior up until this point that indicates otherwise, I think we are watching different nomination campaigns.
Notes: The schedule for add-on delegates can be found here. For the add-ons, I am projecting a split in Missouri, a Clinton win in New Hampshire, and Obama wins in Nevada and Texas. The Michigan and Florida delegations include pledged, add-on, and superdelegates.
Interestingly, the various the popular vote percentages correspond pretty well to each of these delegate totals. Also, due to the addition of projected add-on delegates, Obama now leads even with the abomination that is Michigan’s delegation included. There is going to be a brokered convention unless there is a revote in that state, and I am less confident today about the possibility of new revotes in Michigan and Florida than I was yesterday. The Obama campaign is showing surprising intransigence on the subject, especially considering that even the announcement of a revote in Michigan would pretty much end the campaign right then and there.
More details on the state-by-state pledged delegate totals in the extended entry. My numbers disagree very slightly with some other sources, but I stand by mine until proven otherwise.
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In this projection, I am assuming a revote in both Florida and Michigan. As such, I have included current superdelegate endorsements from those states in superdelegate totals, and placed both their pledged and add-on delegates in the “remaining” column.
In order to win the nomination, Clinton needs to win at least 93 more delegates than Obama before the convention. If she does so, her delegates plus Edwards delegates will force a brokered convention, even if every single superdelegate makes an endorsement beforehand. That requires 53.8% of the remaining delegates. While difficult, that is certainly not impossible, especially if she goes on a winning streak starting in Pennsylvania. In order to win 50% +1 before the convention, she needs 687.5 delegates, or 56.0% of those that remain. While that is starting to enter highly unlikely territory, it is also a reason why she is starting to organize in multi-tiered delegate contests.
Here are all of the polling averages for tonight’s five contests in a single table (source for polls):
March 4th Polling, At A Glance
State
Date
Polls
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
Ohio
Mar 04
8
42.8%
51.0%
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
4
38.8%
49.0%
21
Texas C
Mar 04
0
—
—
67
Texas P
Mar 04
7
45.9%
48.1%
126
Vermont
Mar 04
3
56.7%
35.3%
15
These polls lead to the following delegate projections:
Delegate Projections, Based On Current Polling
State
Date
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
P. Delegates
Jun 07
1,194.5
1,033.5
2,272
Ohio
Mar 04
64
77
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
9
12
21
Texas P
Mar 04
62
64
126
Texas C
Mar 04
38
29
67
Vermont
Mar 04
9
6
15
Sub-Total
Mar 04
182
188
370
Grand Total
Jun 07
1,376.5
1,221.5
2,642
I calculated the Texas caucus results based on the average delegate results from Nevada and Maine, which since Iowa have been the two most favorable caucuses for Clinton (New Mexico was CINO, Caucus In Name Only). Overall, that comes out to a Clinton advantage of 188-182. Could March 4th be the first day that Clinton has won a victory in delegates? Obama has been undefeated on that front the entire campaign, which is one of the reasons why he is still heavily favored in delegate math.
More details on these numbers in the extended entry.
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Seems as though there might be new life for the Clinton campaign. She looks good in Ohio, and Texas is now razor-thin, but with slight Clinton momentum:
Democratic Nomination At A Glance
State
Date
Polls
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
P. Delegates
Jun 7
38
1,193.5
1,033.5
3,253 / 3,566
Ohio
Mar 04
10
42.9%
49.6%
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
4
38.8%
49.0%
21
Texas C
Mar 04
0
—
—
67
Texas P
Mar 04
9
46.4%
46.6%
126
Vermont
Mar 04
3
56.7%
35.3%
15
Wyoming
Mar 08
0
—
—
12
Mississippi
Mar 11
0
—
—
33
Iowa
Mar 15
0
—
—
14
Pennsylvania
April 22
2
42.5%
47.5%
158
Guam
May 03
0
—
—
4
Indiana
May 06
1
40.0%
25.0%
72
North Carolina
May 06
2
41.5%
27.5%
115
West Virginia
May 13
1
22.0%
43.0%
28
* = The 14 Iowa delegates for Edwards might switch at the March 15 county caucuses.
This projects to the following delegate totals:
Delegate Projections, Based On Current Polling
State
Date
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
P. Delegates
Jun 7
1,193.5
1,033.5
2,258
Ohio
Mar 04
65
76
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
9
12
21
Texas P
Mar 04
63
63
126
Texas C
Mar 04
38
29
67
Vermont
Mar 04
9
6
15
Wyoming
Mar 08
8
4
12
Mississippi
Mar 11
21
12
33
Iowa*
Mar 15
0
0
14
Pennsylvania
April 22
75
83
158
Guam
May 03
2
2
4
Indiana
May 06
41
31
72
North Carolina
May 06
65
50
115
West Virginia
May 13
10
18
28
Sub-Total
NA
403
389
806
Grand Total
NA
1,599.5
1,419.5
3,064
Delegates in states without polls were projected according to results in similar states. For Wyoming, the results of Colorado, Idaho, Nebraska and North Dakota were used as models. For the Texas Caucus, Nevada and Maine were used as models. For Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana were used as models. For Guam, American Samoa was used as the model. For Iowa, Edwards has asked his delegates to stick with him, so I have projected no gains for either candidate.
Obama’s pledged delegate advantage is unassailable. For Clinton, the goal is to use a win in the Texas primary in order to change the narrative and improve her standing in post-March 4th states. A win in Pennsylvania would boost her further. From that point, her hope would be to stem the bleeding among superdelegates (where her lead has dropped to 47 or 57, depending on whether you count Florida and Michigan), use public pressure and the credentials committee to seat Florida (where she holds a 38 delegate lead) and win an enormous delegate victory in Michigan (she currently leads 73-0 there. All told, she does not even have a clear path to victory in that scenario, as it would exactly tie she would still trail in the delegate count (180 pledged delegates minus 57 superdelegates minus 38 Florida delegates minus 73 Michigan equals Obama plus twelve) outside of the Edwards delegates (26 + 13 in Florida) and uncommitted delegates (55 in Michigan plus 19 undecided) unless the above projected delegate outcomes swing even more in her favor. Even in that favorable situation, she would still need 63 of the 113 uncommitted and Edwards delegates. So, a Clinton victory is highly improbable, although Obama has still not quite wrapped things up.
I still think we are headed to Pennsylvania. Clinton will win Ohio, and probably Rhode Island. She also should come close in Texas, and probably declare some sort of victory as a result. I’m getting antsy to take on McCain, but Obama’s fundraising doesn’t seem to be a problem, and setting up a massive Pennsylvania operation wouldn’t hurt, either. Also, I wouldn’t mind if my primary vote actually counted this time around.
Is that if Clinton wins the popular vote in Ohio and Texas, she’s staying in the race. Even if she loses the delegate race in Texas. No doubt, this will make heads explode in Chicago.
A lot of pressure on Texas to decide if the campaign continues or not.
Using only polls that were conducted entirely after Wisconsin, here are the latest polling averages from March 4th states: (all polls listed at Pollster.com)
March 4th polling At A Glance
State
Date
Polls
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
Ohio
Mar 04
7
43.1%
47.9%
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
3
39.3%
51.3%
21
Texas
Mar 04
10
47.2%
45.8%
193
Vermont
Mar 04
3
56.7%
35.3%
15
These averages include more polls than those found at Real Clear Politics. The main difference is that I include the latest poll from every polling firm (RCP leaves some out, like ARG and IVR polls), and that I include some older polls. I think the latter is particularly key, given that quite a bit of voting has already taken place in all of these states, so throwing out older polls does not make sense to me. In particular, while Obama is slowly making up ground in Ohio, he probably already lost the state through early voting that was more pro-Clinton than recent polls. Early voting is how, for example, Clinton outperformed the polls in states like California and Massachusetts. While Obama might have drawn even in those states on Election Day, his momentum was simply unable to overcome substantial early voting leads by Clinton. While Obama had already just about caught up in Texas when early voting began back on February 19th, he still trailed in Ohio by 8-10%. To win Ohio, Obama might have to win the Election Day vote by more than 5%, which seems highly unlikely.
I will be pretty surprised if Obama does not win the most delegates on March 4th, further increasing his pledged delegate lead. Right now, even with superdelegates, Florida and Michigan included, and even with Obama receiving zero pledged delegates from Michigan, Clinton only leads the delegate count by 17 according to Democratic convention watch. With Wyoming and Mississippi looming just over the March 4th horizon, in all likelihood by March 12th Obama will be ahead even in the most favorable, pro-Clinton delegate count available. With Obama holding substantial leads on the May 6th states of Indiana and North Carolina, a win in Pennsylvania on April 22nd would obviously end the campaign once and for all. While it would not surprise me if Clinton continued on to Pennsylvania, barring a shock delegate victory on March 4th, clearly the Keystone state would be her last chance.
* = The 14 Iowa delegates for Edwards might switch at the March 15 county caucuses.
The polling that led me to conclude Clinton faces an insurmountable pledged delegate deficit has swung even further in favor of Obama. On March 4th, Obama has pulled slightly closer in Ohio (7.0% down from 7.3%), and slightly further ahead in Texas (1.6% up from 1.0%). Rhode Island is unchanged, while Clinton has pulled closer in Vermont (21.4% down from 25.0%). Obama has pulled nine points closer in Pennsylvania, and seven points further ahead in North Carolina. While West Virginia off-sets most of these gains for Obama, even favorable delegate projections for Clinton show losing eight net pledged delegates between now and May 13th.
Pro-Clinton Delegate Projections, Based On Current Polling
State
Date
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
Clinton Poll Margin
P. Delegates
Jun 7
1,193.5
1,033.5
3,253
—
Ohio
Mar 04
65
76
141
+7.0%
Rhode Island
Mar 04
8
13
21
+13.5%
Texas P
Mar 04
63
63
126
-1.0%
Texas C
Mar 04
38
29
67
—
Vermont
Mar 04
9
6
15
-21.4%
Wyoming
Mar 08
7
5
12
—
Mississippi
Mar 11
18
15
33
—
Iowa*
Mar 15
7
7
14
—
Pennsylvania
April 22
75
83
158
+5.0%
Guam
May 03
1
3
4
—
Indiana
May 06
41
31
72
-15.0%
North Carolina
May 06
65
50
115
-14.0%
West Virginia
May 13
9
19
28
+21.0%
Total
NA
407
399
778
—
A deficit of 168 pledged delegates after West Virginia is untenable. Obviously, Clinton needs to change the direction of the campaign, because current delegate math indicates virtually no way for her to win.
Here are the latest numbers, with all polls conducted entirely since February 16th:
Democratic Nomination At A Glance
State
Date
Polls
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
P. Delegates
Jun 7
38
1,194.5
1,032.5
3,253 / 3,566
Ohio
Mar 04
7
42.0%
49.3%
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
2
39.0%
52.5%
21
Texas
Mar 04
8
47.4%
46.4%
193
Vermont
Mar 04
2
58.5%
33.5%
15
Wyoming
Mar 08
0
—
—
12
Mississippi
Mar 11
0
—
—
33
Iowa*
Mar 15
0
—
—
14
Pennsylvania
April 22
2
34.0%
48.0%
158
Guam
May 03
0
—
—
4
Indiana
May 06
1
40.0%
25.0%
72
North Carolina
May 06
3
45.7%
37.0%
115
* = The 14 Iowa delegates for Edwards might switch at the March 15 county caucuses.
Non-ARG Texas shows a tie at 47.0%, while non-ARG Ohio comes in at Clinton 49.5%–42.5% Obama. In other words, ARG is currently having little impact on the two largest March 4th states, and might be falling more in line with other polls.
Clinton’s Texas situation is growing dire, and her lead in Ohio is also slipping. At this point, I would now be stunned if Obama failed further increase his pledged delegate lead between now and March 11th. Also, I am starting to think that I will be proven wrong about the Clinton campaign continuing on to April 22nd and Pennsylvania, since there is no possible way for Clinton to recover from a double loss in Ohio and Texas..
Obama chances to win the nomination seem to increase every day. It won’t be long before he leads even when superdelegates, Florida and Michigan are included, even while receiving zero delegates from Michigan. Clinton’s slim hopes now rest on perfect storm of Ohio, Pennsylvania, the credentials committee, and stopping the flow of superdelegates to Obama. But even in all of those areas, Obama continues to slowly gain ground. It does not appear as though it will be long before the nomination at a glance is put to rest, and questions over superdelegates, endorsement votes, and the credentials committee become moot. While this is the most closely contested nomination campaign the Democratic Party has seen for nearly a century, it also appears to be rapidly reaching a conclusion. What a ride it has been.
Here are the latest numbers, with all polls conducted entirely since the February 12th Potomac Primary:
Democratic Nomination At A Glance
State
Date
Polls
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
P. Delegates
Jun 7
38
1,194.5
1,032.5
3,253 / 3,566
Ohio
Mar 04
7
41.4%
49.6%
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
2
39.0%
52.5%
21
Texas
Mar 04
8
45.8%
47.5%
193
Vermont
Mar 04
2
58.5%
33.5%
15
Wyoming
Mar 08
0
—
—
12
Mississippi
Mar 11
0
—
—
33
Iowa*
Mar 15
0
—
—
14
Pennsylvania
April 22
2
34.0%
48.0%
158
Guam
May 03
0
—
—
4
Indiana
May 06
0
—
—
72
North Carolina
May 06
3
45.7%
37.0%
115
* = The 14 Iowa delegates for Edwards might switch at the March 15 county caucuses.
The March 4th polling situation appears to be stabilizing. Obama is way ahead in Vermont, and will score an easy victory there. Clinton appears to have decent leads in Ohio and Rhode Island, the former of which is slowly shrinking while the latter remains stable. Texas is very close, but Obama will almost certainly win the delegate count there because 1/3 of the delegates are determined via caucus and because Clinton tends to be strongest in four-delegate districts that are very difficult to score a 3-1 edge. Toss in Wyoming and Mississippi in the week following March 4th, and it is hard to see how Clinton makes up any ground in pledged delegates between now and Pennsylvania.
I think commenters are correct when they write that the outcome of the popular vote in the Texas primary will play a big role in determining whether or not Clinton continues on to Pennsylvania. Bill Clinton indicated as much today when he said the following about the caucuses:
The doors open at 7 and they close at 7:15. It would be tragic if Hillary were to win this election in the daytime and somebody were to come in at night and take it away.
Clearly, the Clinton campaign is laying the groundwork to declare victory in Texas solely on the basis of the primary vote, not the caucus or delegate count. While I still think that Hillary Clinton will continue on to Pennsylvania as long as she wins Ohio, I grant it is possible she drops out if she loses the primary vote in Texas.
* = The 14 Iowa delegates for Edwards might switch at the March 15 county caucuses. ** I did not include the new online poll showing Obama up 14 in Texas, which I think is utterly bougs.
Would winning Ohio and Rhode Island be enough for Clinton to continue on to Pennsylvania? It isn’t clear. Obama will clean up in Vermont, Wyoming and Mississippi, and also probably win the delegate count in Texas. Overall, this means it is unlikely that Clinton will make up any ground at all in the pledged delegate count between now and March 15th.
Still, I think that Clinton will continue forward to Pennsylvania as long as she wins Ohio. With superdelegates, Florida, and Michigan included, she still leads the overall delegate count by 31. (Actually, only 23 if you use my delegate count. Even then, that is only because she leads Michigan 80-1.) As long as she leads in some sort of delegate count, and can win Ohio on March 4th, I just don’t see her dropping out after the extensive arguments her campaign has made on those subjects. Obama’s path to the nomination right now seems to be either to win both Ohio and Texas, or to win Pennsylvania and take the lead according to all delegate counts.
Non-ARG Wisconsin stands at Obama 49.0%–41.7% Clinton across three polls (ARG now matches other polls in Wisconsin), while non-ARG Texas stands at Clinton 50.2%–42.6% Obama.
Obama’s lead in Wisconsin now consistent across all polls. Still, with that said, the size of his lead there, the importance attached to Wisconsin, the voting rules in Wisconsin, and the last-minute Clinton effort there are all eerily similar to New Hampshire. A win in Wisconsin puts Obama in about the same position he would have been with a New Hampshire victory, with March 4th serving as the new Nevada and South Carolina. I admit this analogy is imperfect.
Obama is moving closer in Texas. This is not a moment too soon for his campaign, since early voting begins in Texas today. Some people think that all Obama has to do is win Texas to knock Clinton out, but after crunching numbers yesterday I think she will keep going even if she only wins Ohio. The math indicates that it would be worth making one more stand.
Tonight is huge. We will know more in about 13 hours. Also, I’m working on a story related to the Politico pledged delegate piece earlier today, which I think missed the more pressing options available to campaigns in many states.
There is a decent amount of talk right now among pundits about various scenarios for how Obama and Clinton can seal the nomination. The following scenarios presented by Mark Halperin seems to be about as good a repository of CW on the matter as one will be about to find:
For Obama to win, he needs some combination of the following:
–Beat Clinton in Texas and/or Ohio.
–Maintain his elected delegate lead by grinding out victories and keeping losses close.
–Convince superdelegates to coalesce around the leader in elected delegates.
For Clinton to win, she needs some combination of the following:
–Win the most delegates in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
–Whittle Obama’s elected delegate lead down to a statistically insignificant margin.
–Convince superdelegates that she is the stronger general election candidate and better prepared to be president – an argument which could be helped by an intervening outside event and/or negative campaigning.
The major problem with this analysis is that it is vague to the point of almost saying nothing. What does “a statistically insignificant margin” of elected delegates mean? Roughly how many superdelegates does each campaign have to convince of its arguments? Why does Clinton have to win the most delegates in all three of the largest remaining states? Wouldn’t, for example, winning by large margins in two of the states be perfectly adequate even when coupled with a narrow defeat in the other state? To put this another way, exactly how many delegates are we talking about here?
To answer this question, in the extended entry I provide excruciating details on delegate counts. From those details, I extrapolate how long the campaign will last, and provide winning scenarios for each candidate. If you don’t have the patience to read all the way through, here is my conclusion:
Obama needs a net gain of 61 delegates of any sort, while Clinton needs a net gain of 87 among pledged delegates and a net gain of zero among superdelegates. Pennsylvania also appears to be a potentially decisive, and inevitable, showdown.
Full explanation in the extended entry.
There’s More…
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