(Dark Blue (133): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (96): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (68): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (78): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (163): McCain +7.6% or more)
Here is the swing state chart:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%. If a state isn’t listed, it isn’t that close right now.)
* = Reflects polling from before the Republican convention
Just as he falls behind in national polls, McCain has just moved into the lead in the electoral college. This odd development is due to the information lag between new national polls and new state polls. Much the same happened last week, as McCain moved clearly into the lead in national polls, but never lead by more than 270-268 in the electoral college (and sometimes didn’t lead at all). McCain’s lead in today’s chart probably reflects where the campaign was five or six days ago, just as Obama’s swing state lead last week represented the state of the campaign a few days before that.
Hopefully, at some point, there will be tracking polls in the closest states, thereby giving us up to date information on the actual state of the campaign. For now, what state by state information we have can be found in the extended entry.
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Due to popular demand, I have created a swing state chart that is slightly modified from my normal methodology. Most importantly, I removed all of the Zogby Internet polls. Also, I removed three states, Indiana, New York and West Virginia, whose status as swing states was dubious at best, and based off of single polls that were either old or outliers.
With those tweaks, and looking only at polls conducted entirely after the Republican convention, here is the swing state chart:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
This chart conceptualizes the campaign as essentially a seven state affair right now. With Obama starting at 221 electoral votes, and McCain starting at 227 electoral votes, the seven closest states are Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia. Such a close forecast is given further credence by yesterday’s tracking poll average, which suggested a 46.0%-46.0% tie.
While these numbers add plausibility to the notion that the campaign is exactly tied right now, I have to admit that my gut does not matchup with that prognosis. Something just feels wrong with these numbers. Maybe it is that the two smaller, newer tracking polls are the better ones for Obama. Maybe it is that the swing state chart only shows a tie because Obama is tied in Virginia, and it seems strange that he would drop nationwide but not lose any ground–or even gain–in Virginia. Maybe it is that I dropped some polls from this average (Zogby tracking, plus the most recent polls from Indiana, New York and West Virginia), just because they “felt” wrong. Maybe I am just a numbers worshiper, but it “feels” wrong to remove polls that “feel” wrong–event he Zogby Internet polls that are, in many cases, obviously wrong (like when they showed Obama up eight in North Carolina).
Pollster.com currently shows McCain ahead by 1.7% nationally, and by 278-260 in the electoral college if every state is pushed to make a choice. Forecasting a slight McCain lead just feels more accurate to me right now than an exact tie. However, since analyzing polls shouldn’t mix with talking about your feelings, I’ll just admit that both scenarios–a slight McCain lead and an exact tie–are real possibilities right now.
Update: Obama leads by 4% in today’s Daily Kos tracking poll. That is a hopeful sign.
(Dark Blue (133): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (84): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (100): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (48): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (173): McCain +7.6% or more)
For the first that I can remember, the dark red states outnumber the dark blue states–and by a substantial amount of electoral votes, too. Here is the swing state chart:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
* = Reflects polling from before the Republican convention
The state of the campaign has reversed itself entirely from over the summer. Now, McCain holds a 2-3% national lead, while Obama needs to sweep a long run of swing states in order to pull off the victory. Hopefully things will turn around, but I see no indication of Obama improvement lately. At best, the national polls are stagnating, and the state by state polls continue to swing toward McCain.
Sorry I don’t have more good news, but I am no longer one of those bloggers who argues with polls instead of accepting them. Hopefully, Palin’s recent slide will impact McCain, given that there is some indication she was partially responsible for his recent rise. There also has been some incremental imporvement in the tracking polls recently, so hopefully that is a sign of a positive rend.
Also, I am travelling today, so light blogging until this evening. State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (181): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (40): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (88): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (59): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (170): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Alabama, Colorado (2), Florida (2), Georgia (2), Maine, Michigan (2), Mississippi, North Carolina (3), Ohio (3), Pennsylvania and Wyoming are added to the averages, making for a nearly complete set of post-convention swing state polls. Here is the swing state chart:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
* = Reflects polling from before the Republican convention
Note that when the states are pushed to make a choice, Obama still leads. And the polling in this chart is almost entirely post-Republican convention. Further analysis and state by state details in the extended entry.
(Dark Blue (181): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (66): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (89): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (32): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (170): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Alaska, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Virginia and West Virginia. Here is the swing state chart:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
Even if it is only 1.5%, McCain’s national lead is still clear right now. However, I wonder if it will be so short-lived, that he might never actually take the lead in the electoral college polling averages. There simply might not be enough state level polls to prove McCain is ahead right now. So, despite a 1.5% McCain national lead, available polling still shows Obama slightly ahead 247-202. Even when states are pushed to make a choice, McCain still doesn’t reach 270 (although such a situation would be McCain 265-263 Obama, with a Colorado recount pending).
Still, I wouldn’t feel very good if the election were held tomorrow. Also, the electoral map is starting to look very similar to 2000 and 2004. Fortunately, with Colorado emerging as the equal of Ohio and Florida, we now have more paths to victory than in the previous two elections. State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (186): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (65): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (101): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (3): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (183): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin (UPDATE: also from North Carolina) continue to help fill out the post-convention polling picture. The new map looks kind of familiar. With the exception of Indiana and the Dakotas, this is almost exactly the map that one would except in a close campaign if demographic trends were extrapolated onto the 2004 results. Here is the swing state chart:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
It looks like the Obama “firewall” that I outlined a few weeks ago–Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico–remains the surest path to victory. Nevada might have emerged as a back-up plan, but I wouldn’t count on North Dakota anymore. It has probably gone the way of Alaska, Georgia and Montana before it: red states where Obama was way overperforming, but is now probably losing by substantial amounts.
With Iowa and New Mexico probably secure, I keep coming back to Colorado as the most important state of this election. If the campaign remains this close, it will probably serve the same role as Florida in 2000, or Ohio in 2004. If, on the off-chance that you have the ability to target resources in multiple areas in this election, it would be wise to focus them on Colorado above all other states.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (201): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (50): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (104): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (18): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (165): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Alaska (2), Colorado (2), Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan (2), Minnesota, Ohio (2), Washington and Virginia (2). Also, I have cycled out a huge number of old polls that were taken before the VP and convention season began in earnest. From now trough October 21st, only polls taken within the last 15 days will be included in the averages (with exceptions for states where no polls were taken in the last 15 days, of course). Here is the swing state chart:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
State polling is in a real state of flux right now, making it best to take these numbers with a big grain of salt. Some of the polls were taken during the Biden announcement period. Some were taken during the Democratic convention. Some were taken during the period when Palin breifly made a crater in McCain’s numbers. Still others were taken over the most recent weekend. As such, rather than being a snapshot of how things stand today, it is a mish-mash, palimpsest composite of the last two weeks. Some of the numbers will be weird as a result.
I am feeling a bit better as the day wears on. The Gallup poll from last night was by far the worst poll of the last twenty-four hours. The problem was that it was also the first poll of the last twenty-four hours. At first, it felt like an exact repeat of 2004, but since that time it is clear that it isn’t quite that bad. It still isn’t great, and McCain is ahead now, but it just isn’t quite as terrible as I thought.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (83): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (69): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (41): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (162): McCain +7.6% or more)
While many of us continue to be enthralled by national polls, virtually no state polls have been released in the past week. Just about the only state polls I can find is from North Dakota, which actually shows a slight Obama lead. Also, old polls dropping out of the averages amusingly shows Obama taking the lead in Alaska. While Palin has probably put McCain back in front out in Alaska, it is still pretty funny. It also shows how Palin was chosen, at least in part, to help out with a swing state this year:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
Virtually all of the state polling data was taken before the conventions and the VP picks, so take it for what it is worth. If one were to project state results based on national polls, a 5.2% lead for Obama translates into a 7.7% swing from 2004, with pickups in Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio. Of course, since state electorates are not static entities, Obama clearly seems to have a better shot in several other states than Missouri (Alaska, North Dakota, Montana, Virginia, and even North Carolina come to mind).
So, while things look good, we are going to have to wait for more data to truly understand the impact of the conventions and the VP picks. Current state by state details in the extended entry.
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This is the most recent state-level forecast map Chris posted two days ago. On the flip I’ve got a review of the state-level view from May 23 through Auguest 28, with the addition of an August 21 map.
August 28 Electoral College: Obama 260, McCain 206, Toss-up 72
National popular vote: Obama 46.5%-44.9% McCain / Margin: Obama +1.6%
Given the sharp swings to be expected around conventions, and the time it takes for the state-level polls to catch up, I think we’re going to be somewhat flying blind at the state level for a few weeks here, so I thought it was a good time for look back and some reflection. Obviously we are in better shape than this map shows, but also obviously, it doesn’t hurt to be overly cautious.
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(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (72): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (44): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (162): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from California, Colorado, Florida (2), Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. The only category change is Missouri moving from “Lean McCain” to “Solid McCain.” Here is the swing state chart:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
I am feeling a bit more relaxed today, primarily because the trend is now moving in favor of Obama. Still, if I were the Obama campaign, I would consider pulling paid media from Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. Unless Obama receives a decent convention bump, which seems unlikely given its current tepid size, and since the Republican convention will immediately follow the Democratic convention, those states have pretty much moved out of reach. An argument could be made that spending there stretches McCain thin, but a counter argument could be made that shoring up Minnesota and Oregon is more worthwhile (and switching to South Dakota might also make sense). Perhaps better to board up your backdoor, especially given that Colorado and Virginia already present you with two backdoors into your opponent’s house. (For the purposes of this analogy, winning either Florida or Ohio is considered the “front door.”) Do we really need four, five or even six paths to victory? the current swing state chart suffices quite nicely, if you ask me.
Some might object, and say that pulling out of any state is a violation of the principles of the fifty-state strategy. However, the fifty-state strategy does not mandate equal spending in all states all the time. Instead, it means spending in all states at least some of the time, a greater emphasis on field than on paid media, and more decentralized control over the expenditure of funds raised by the DNC. The Obama campaign has staff everywhere, but is focusing mainly on the 18 states where it is running paid media. There isn’t anything wrong with that. You try to play everywhere, but toward the end you tailor your resources to where they can make the most difference. Obama gave a national campaign a darn good shot, but now it is time to target most narrowly.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (72): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (55): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (151): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Florida (2), North Carlina (2), Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas make virtually no dent in the state polling averages. Here is the swing state chart:
The big polling news today, of course, are the tracking polls that show a tie (Rasmussen) and a two-point lead for McCain (Gallup). That is the worst showing for Obama in three months, and also the first time in three months that McCain has a net lead in the tracking polls. It should be noted that this does not mean McCain is ahead nationally, as there are other polls and the tracking polls have consistently skewed toward McCain. Also, it should be noted that Obama continues to hold a lead at the state polling level.
However, this is still pretty bad news. Although the tracking polls have virtually no interviews conducted after Michelle Obama’s speech, they were both entirely conducted after the Biden announcement. This means no Biden bump, which doesn’t really surprise me. Biden just isn’t the sort of politician who is going to win votes right away. The hope is that he can win them as the campaign goes on, with a strong debate, as tough attack dog, and just as a generally good surrogate.
I admit that I have a bad feeling about this. So far, the lack of bounce is eerily similar to 2004, when we didn’t get a bounce out of the convention. I am not entirely sure what is going wrong, as I have actually generally liked what the Obama campaign has done over the past week. Conventions tend to put presidential campaigns where they should “naturally” be, and right now I am wondering if that means a toss-up or even a slight McCain lead. Maybe the last three months were just a mirage, and it was the March through May period that was normal. The next two weeks will let us know.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (72): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (55): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (151): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Arizona, Colorado (4), Florida, Michigan (2), Mississippi, Nevada (2), New Hampshire, New Mexico (3), North Carolina, Ohio (2), Virginia (2), Utah and Wyoming. These polls are all over the map, but on net they are good for Obama. The evidence for this comes from the swing state chart:
Obama rises to 302 electoral votes when the states are pushed, and with the addition of Michigan his “base” states also rise to 255 electoral votes. McCain gains Missouri in his base column and also takes a slight lead in New Hampshire, but otherwise he has slipped back slightly.
At this point, it is too early and these gains are too slight in order to identify a Biden bump. In fact, the first time that it will be possible to identify a bump will be in the middle of the convention, making any Biden bump indistinct from a convention bounce. And then, of course, by the time we can measure a convention bounce, McCain will have made his VP pick and the RNC will be under way. So, basically, we won’t be able to identify any bounces for at least the next two weeks. Going to be an intense stretch.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (57): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (70): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (151): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Indiana, Kansas, Michigan and New Mexico today. Later today, Rasmussen will release polls from California and Tennessee, and I will update the chart accordingly. Here is the swing state chart:
One trend I have noticed is that McCain isn’t rising in the polls, but Obama is dropping. Pollster.com’s national trend tells this tale:
At 42.8%, McCain is still lower than he was at any point this year before Clinton withdrew from the campaign. Obama, by contrast, hasn’t been this low since late March, in the wake of the Reverend Wright nonsense.
So, McCain has succeeded in raising doubts about Obama, but he hasn’t succeeded in convincing people to actually support him. This makes the convention a perfect opportunity for Obama, since it is his chance to convince those increasing number of undecideds to come back. Also, continuing to raise doubts about McCain won’t hurt, either. However, even though it feels better to attack McCain, it appears that building up Obama might be the slightly more important task, according to this chart.
State by state details in the extended entry.
Update: New polls from California and Tennessee are now included in the tables.
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(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (57): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (70): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (151): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Florida, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire (2), North Carolina and Pennsylvania. The polls are coming fast and thick now (hmmm… can I write that in public?) but the map remains very similar to yesterday’s. New Hampshire moves from “Lean Obama” to “Toss-up,” while Wisconsin moves from “Solid Obama” to “Lean Obama.” Colorado also drops to a dead heat, pushing Obama below 270 electoral votes for the first time in four or five months. More positively, Minnesota moves back into Obama’s base category, after only one day on the swing state chart:
If every state was pushed to choose a candidate, right now, based on the current averages, the score is Obama 264, McCain 262, and 12 in the toss-up category. Of course, that is based on McCain running the table in several states that are currently well within the margin of error–Alaska, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. Still, we are basically talking about a dead heat entering the conventions, with Obama holding only the most narrow of leads.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (193): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (71): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (53): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (70): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (151): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Tennessee.
Lots of category changes to report, both because of the many new polls and because I have removed a lot of older data. The two bright spot are Alaska and South Dakota, which move from “Lean McCain” to “Toss up,” and from “Solid McCain” to “Lean McCain” respectively. Otherwise, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon downgrade from “Solid Obama” to “Lean Obama,” and three other states, Florida, Indiana and North Dakota move from “Toss up” to “Lean McCain.” Further, the “Lean McCain” states of Georgia, Nebraska-02, South Carolina, and Texas are now “Solid McCain.” Collectively, this puts McCain over 200 electoral votes for the first time since May, and closes him within 43 electoral votes of Obama. McCain has also closed the national popular vote gap to 1.4%, the closest it has been since late May. And the swing state chart doesn’t look any better:
Two comments on these numbers. First, whatever the Obama campaign is doing right now in terms of messaging isn’t working very well. As I discussed earlier in the week, they have a 35-1 lead in voter contacts, a 3-1 lead in field offices, a substantial lead in free media coverage, and even a lead in paid media. So, we have the campaign infrastructure, and this is a big Democratic year. Given that McCain continues to close despite all this is a clear indication that McCain and his surrogates / affiliated organizations are doing a better job of messaging than Obama and his surrogates / affiliated organizations.
Second, it is entirely possible that this upward trend for McCain will be halted, reversed, and erased over the next two and a half weeks. Conventions have a history of putting presidential campaigns back to their “natural” starting positions (for more on this historical trend, click here). Given that this is a big Democratic year, that “natural” starting position should be, by all indications, an Obama lead. However, there is no guarantee this will happen, especially given that inferior messaging seems to have gotten us into this mess in the first place.
I am cleaning out pre-July polling data and updating the methodology today, so there might be some weirdness in the charts for another hour or so. State by state details in the extended entry.
Update: I am pretty sure that the forecast has been completely updated now. That map ain’t a pretty picture, compared to what we saw in June and July.
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(Dark Blue (215): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (49): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (91): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (87): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (96): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Colorado (2), Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Ohio since the last front-page update. While there are no category changes, as you can see from the swing state chart below, Obama’s lead is now virtually non-existent:
For a long time, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia have been the three key swing states in this campaign (Nevada is a close fourth). In order to win, Obama has always needed either only one of those three, or Nevada plus a victory in the House of Representatives. Right now, Obama’s position is as precarious in those three states as it has been in at least three months, and probably five months. His lead in Colorado is only 0.4%. Both Ohio and Virginia are dead heats. Also, McCain leads by 1.0% in Nevada.
The good news for Obama is that McCain still doesn’t lead in any of those three states, even though he would have to sweep them all in order to win. Also, a backdoor path to victory exists by winning two of three in Alaska, Montana and North Dakota. While I show McCain narrowly ahead in Alaska and Montana, Pollster.com actually shows Obama narrowly ahead in both. So, throw on a few more swing states that McCain has to sweep in order to eek out the narrowest of victories.
With the conventions and the VP nominations, the biggest opportunity for movement in this campaign–for both sides–comes over the next three weeks. As big as the debates are, they won’t quite compare to eight nights of prime time coverage, plus two veep selections. It is bitterly disappointing that Obama is not ahead by more entering this crucial three week stretch, but I guess we will see where things stand one month from now. The campaign begins full force now.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (215): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (49): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (91): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (87): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (96): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, New Jersey, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia (2), Washington, and Wisconsin. the only category change is in Pennsylvania, which downgrades from “Solid Obama” to “Lean Obama.” It should be noted that Adam B has a good piece on why recent Pennsylvania polling, which still shows Obama ahead with greater than 95% certainty, is far more pro-McCain than reality.
The campaign continues to change very little, although there has been an incremental shift toward McCain over the last six weeks. Overall, since Obama’s late June peek, it seems that McCain has gained about 1-2% both nationally and across the state polls. Even though the McCain campaign is regularly lying, contradicting itself, and running a truly nasty campaign, he has largely been given a pass. The amount of cognitive dissonance in the media coverage of McCain has reached Bush first term levels. The good thing is that Obama still leads despite it. Still, The coming VP picks and conventions will be absolutely key–much more important than the debates.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (236): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (28): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (91): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (87): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (96): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Oregon, Virginia and Washington since the last front-page update. Because both of recent polling and because I have tightened the categories a bit, Missouri moves from “Toss-up” to “Lean McCain.” The categories are now in the final form they will take between now and Election Day. In the coming months, future changes will include increasing the number of polls in the averages from 4 to 5 and, come mid-October, removing all pre-October data from swing state polls.
The longer the campaign goes on, the more I am drawn to the theory that says the campaign is basically static, excepting major changes in mid-March around Rev. Wright and early June when Obama secured the nod. For one thing, the state polling picture has barely changed at all, even from the days in mid-June when Obama led nationally by about 5%. Second, while the national average appears closer than mid-June, it actually isn’t. Right now, pretty much the only polls impacting the national average are Gallup and Rasmussen which, for some unexplained reason, have consistently shown the campaign to be about 3.5% closer than other polls.
Overall, at either the state or national levels, I don’t see any evidence that the campaign has changed in about two months. That isn’t to say that it won’t change in the future. Rather, I would argue that the appearance of daily change brought on by the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls is a mirage. A more comprehensive look at polling indicated that this is where the campaign has been ever since Obama clinched the nod.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (228): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (36): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (102): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (76): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (96): McCain +8.0% or more)
New polls from Alabama, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Wisconsin (2) today. Oregon moves from barely “Solid Obama” to the strongest “Lean Obama” possible. The lack of swing state polls (those closer than 5.0%) means that there is no change in the swing state forecast:
Apart from swing states, I find it interesting that the number of undecideds remains over 10%, even with many polls pushing leaners. The peculiar political environment, with Republicans extremely unpopular, but Obama under-performing under white Democrats, probably leaves an opening for third-parties to collectively reach 4-5% in this campaign, ala the 2000 election. The three “major” third party candidates even all have decent names, as we have two former members of Congress (Barr and McKinney) and also Ralph Nader.
The problem I think they are facing is one of organization, and a lack of grassroots support. In 1992, Ross Perot actually had a huge number of self-starting volunteers that put him on all fifty state ballots. In 2000, Nader raised about $8,000,000, mostly online. That same year, Buchanan also was able to use the millions of dollars in public funding the Reform Party secured by reaching 5% of the vote in 1992 and 1996. There just isn’t the same level of organizational strength available to this year’s third-party candidates.
The 4-5% opening probably could have been filled by Ron Paul, if he had run as a Libertarian or an Independent. However, I suppose that since that would have meant giving up the Republican nomination for his congressional seat, he didn’t do it. Although there is no way to tell how that would have changed the campaign, the most likely outcome is that Obama would have a pretty huge lead right now.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (236): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (28): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (102): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (76): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (96): McCain +8.0% or more)
New polls from Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida (2), Massachusetts and Washington show little change. Even though the map doesn’t show it, Arizona moves from “lean McCain” to solid McCain.” (I’ll fix the map later–not in a position to do so right now.) Also, even though the state is still technically a statistical toss-up, McCain has regained a narrow lead in Florida. Over the past week, Obama had a narrow, statistically insignificant lead in the state. In national polling, the campaign continues to hover between a statistical toss-up and a statistically significant lead for Obama.
If this is as bad as the McCain barrage can get, then Obama should be in a strong position. McCain’s best shot still has yet to put him in a statistically insignificant lead nationally, or at a statistically significant lead in states worth 200 electoral votes. I except Obama to gain in polls over the next week, relative to the current standings. From that point, we will have VP picks and the conventions to change and / or define the campaign. This barrage by McCain appears to simply have not been enough.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (236): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (28): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (102): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (86): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
New polls from Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Kentucky (2), Missouri, Montana, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Texas result in no category changes at all. Here is the swing state overview, which is virtually identical to the one from Thursday:
It is possible that the lack of swing state polls in recent weeks makes Obama appear to be better off than he actually is. With the latest national movement toward McCain, it is possible that North Carolina, Indiana, Montana, and North Dakota are not really swing states anymore. Then again, since Obama’s path to victory never actually went through those states, maybe it doesn’t matter.
One thing to keep in mind is that, back in the middle of July, when McCain had a two-week resurgence in national polling, new state polls did not, generally speaking, confirm his rise. So, we will have to see what the new state polls are like before confirming a pro-McCain trend. Current state by state details can be found in the extended entry.
Update: A reader who will go anonymous (we will call him M. Moulitsas–no wait, that is too obvious–how about Markos M.?) writes in to note that polls in the last two weeks from North Dakota, North Carolina, and Montana still show a close campaign. As someone who doesn’t like to argue with poll results, I have to agree. Those states appear as swinging as they ever were.
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(Dark Blue (236): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (28): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (102): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (86): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
New polls from Florida, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio and Pennsylvania continue to, collectively speaking, show Obama is a very solid position. There are no category changes, but Obama has taken a slight lead in Florida. Five million dollars worth of unopposed television ads, combined with more than a dozen field offices in the state, can do that sort of thing.
A lot of people seems to be upset about the way the campaign is going. However, according to Pollster.com, this is the second largest lead Obama has held all year. Further, McCain is at his lowest point this year, sinking all the way down to 41.6% support. I admit it doesn’t feel great right now, but the numbers are actually pretty darn good. Obama only needs to win one of Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and Florida to win the election, and polls show him leading in all four. In fact, Obama could lose all four of those, but still emerge victorious if he wins Nevada and Congress breaks the 269-269 tie.
So, there seems to be a disconnect between how well it feels like it is going, and how well the numbers show it to be going. State by state details in the extended entry.
Update: Even with the new Gallup poll that shows Obama only ahead by 1% included, Pollster.com still shows Obama ahead by 4.9%, and with roughly a 90% chance of being ahead. During the period after Clinton’s depature from the campaign and before the “moving to the center” narrative really set in, Obama’s lead was consistently 4.4% to 4.9%. In other words, the new attacks haven’t made any impact. At least yet.
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(Dark Blue (236): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (28): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (102): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (86): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
Since the last front-page update, there have been new polls from California, Mississippi, New Mexico, New Jersey, North Carlina, North Dakota, Pennsylvania (2), South Carlina, and Washington. There are three category changes:
New Mexico upgrades from “Lean Obama” to “Solid Obama”
North Carolina downgrades from “Toss-up” to “Lean McCain”
Pennsylvania upgrades from “Lean Obama” to “Solid Obama.”
It is heartening to see Pennsylvania and New Mexico removed from the swing state list, and placed into the solid category. Truth be told, I should probably remove Iowa and Michigan from the swing state list, too. The election will be won and lost in the other eleven states listed. Obama starts that fight with 260 electoral votes, while McCain only has 154.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (210): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (54): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (117): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (71): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
Since the last update, there have been new polls from Colorado (2), Florida, Michigan, Minnesota (2), New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin. The category changes are as follows:
Colorado downgraded from “Lean Obama” to “Toss-up”
Florida upgraded from “Lean McCain” to “Toss-up”
Missouri clarified as “Toss-up” instead of “Lean McCain.” I had been listed contradictory information.
It is worth noting that the first “red flag” poll–that is, a poll showing McCain leading in one of Obama’s firewall states–in two months appeared today. It comes from Colorado, where the new Quinnipiac poll shows McCain with a narrow, 2% lead. Obama does still lead in the overall average in the state, but Obama’s odds of winning the state have dropped below 68%. This is the first “red flag” poll to appear since a May 27th poll showed McCain leading in Michigan.
The red flag puts Obama below 270 electoral votes for the first time since June 16th. Still, since McCain cannot afford a single loss among the ten “toss-up” states, the odds of victory are still very strongly in Obama’s favor.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (210): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (63): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (108): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (71): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
Since the last update, there have been new polls from Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire (2), North Carolina and Ohio (2). The only category changes are downgrades in Michigan, from “Solid Obama” to “Lean Obama,” and in Ohio, from “Lean Obama” to “Toss-up.”
My two main goals with the presidential forecast are accuracy and clarity. With that in mind, I will be adjusting the forecast somewhat over the next couple of days. In particular, I will now focus on a more narrow set of “decisive states,” that will determine the election. Here is a preview:
The basic idea is that, at any given moment, I want to be able to highlight both the broad swing states, and the truly decisive, uber-swing states. Right now, polling strongly suggests that Colorado, Ohio and Virginia are the three most important swing states. Fortunately for Obama, he would only need to win one of those three states, and he currently leads in all three. McCain would need to sweep those three states, but currently trails in all three. In fact, McCain could even sweep all three, but lose Nevada, and then still have Congress hand Obama victory in the event of a 269-269 tie. Thus, Nevada becomes the fourth most decisive state.
Since I probably can’t match either Pollster.com or fivethirtyeight.com for total information availability, I am trying to provide the quickest, easiest to understand guide to the current standings in the Presidential election. What I can’t match in terms of total raw data, I will try to make up for with clarity and transparency (without, of course, losing any of the accuracy). I hope this chart is a step in the right direction, but please let me know what you think.
Complete state by state details in the extended entry.
Updated: New polls from Colorado and Florida has been added. Florida upgraded from “Lean McCain” to “Toss-up.”
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NOTE: This diary is entirely parasitical on Chris’s regular updates. I’m simply comparing the most recent status report with ones from four and eight weeks ago.
Dramatic gains made by Obama between May 23 and June 20 have been followed by a much less dynamic four weeks. While Obama has solidified his hold on the upper Midwest–and turned Indiana into a tossup, elsewhere, very little has changed. Montana has become a tossup, while Florida has slipped out of that category to lean McCain. Kansas and Oregon have both shifted from lean to solid–for McCain and Obama respectively. And Arizona and Texas have both shifted to lean McCain. This is not a bad map at all for Obama, but it is a decidedly static one, compared to what went before.
(Dark Blue (227): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (66): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (61): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (98): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
Since the last update, new polls in Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, Oregon, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, Virginia and Washington once again result in no category changes to any state. Over the past week, there have been new polls from over twenty states, and no categories have been changed as a result of any of those polls. That is a very strong sign of a static campaign.
Since the campaign appears static right now, it is worth asking if a static campaign is good for Obama. Certainly, holding a statistically significant lead in states totaling 293 electoral votes would appear to be a good place for the campaign to freeze for Obama. On the other hand, while the state polls are static, McCain has gained about 1.1-1.6% in national polls, so perhaps the campaign is best described as somewhere between static and a slight trend toward McCain. Perhaps Obama has reached his ceiling, and the rest of the campaign will be about maintaining this lead, which really isn’t very large. Further, a static campaign could be a side effect of the caution we have seen from the Obama campaign recently, when a less cautious campaign would have been able to build a huge lead over the past three weeks.
Or, maybe I am just overanalyzing things. The campaign has moved about 1% nationally, which hasn’t had any real impact on the state-by-state situation. And maybe there isn’t anything more to say about it than that, given that people won’t really start paying attention to the campaign again for another five and a half weeks when convention season begins.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (227): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (66): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (61): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (98): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
Since the last update, new polls from California, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota and Washington leave the state by state categories unchanged. The national polling situation has altered a bit, however, as Obama re-establishes most of his lead. During June, Obama’s national lead consistently hovered between 4.4% and 4.9%, making his current lead of 3.8% 4.0%–a number that will no doubt improve with Pollster.com’s update later in the day–rather unremarkable. McCain has gained somewhere between 0.5% and 0.9% 0.4%-0.9% on Obama, and even that number is melting away as we speak.
Not to gloat or anything, but now that polls show McCain has not caught up on Obama at all in state polls, and has made only minimal gains in national poll, I would like to point two things:
First, can we all agree that I was right when I argued Obama’s perceived move to the center wasn’t helping him? While Obama hasn’t dropped all that much, he clearly hasn’t gained anything, either. It probably didn’t even help his fundraising, which I admit surprises me a little bit, given the large remaining number of $4,600 donors out there.
Second, can we all stop panicking over how progressive cost Obama the election because they didn’t all just shut up and empty their wallets? Matt covered several prominent writers making this charge, but it is also the most common type of dairy over at Daily Kos for the past month. Obama hasn’t really lost that much ground, so maybe we can all just stop panicking now.
Not much has really changed in the election since mid-June. State level polls seem pretty much unchanged, and national polls are only 0.5-0.9% 0.4%-0.9% better for McCain. Fundraising is a bit off where it should be for Obama, but we won’t know how far off until the numbers are released. A relatively static campaign with a very slight trend toward McCain means that Obama’s move to the center was not a strategic masterstroke, and it also hasn’t been a total disaster. McCain is a little closer, but not much. Lots of work left to do.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (227): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (66): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (61): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (98): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
Despite the tightening of national polls, Obama’s lead in the Electoral College remains virtually unchanged in the latest forecast. There have been a couple of changes as a result of recent state polls, but not many and not all of them are negative for Obama:
Florida downgrades from “Toss-up” to “Lean McCain”
Missouri upgrades from “Lean McCain” to “Toss-up”
Additionally, Michigan, Washington and Wisconsin all have solidified as “Solid Obama,” while Louisiana solidifies as “Solid McCain.” Otherwise, there have not been any new state polls over the past four days. Rasmussen will have a couple more later today, from Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota.
Obama’s national poll lead has dropped about to 2.7%, which is about a 2% drop from the roughly 4.4–4.9% lead he held during the thirty days running from June 12th through July 11th. It is possible that the lack of recent state polls have concealed the Electoral College from Obama’s national losses. It is possible that Obama has lost national ground in areas that are not swing states or blue states. It is also possible that Obama’s national losses are mainly the product of Newsweek and Rasmussen, and thus will be quickly reversed. Whatever it is, I tend to think that national polls are leading indicators of what we will see in upcoming state polls, and that Obama’s national losses will be replicated there. I guess only time and more polling will tell.
State by state details in the extended entry.
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(Dark Blue (224): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (69): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (77): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (82): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
New polls from 35 states make surprisingly little impact on the overall allocation of electoral votes. However, there were quite a few changes from the “lean” to “solid” categories:
Arizona upgraded to “Lean McCain” from “Solid McCain”
Indiana upgraded from “Lean McCain” to “Toss-up”
Michigan upgraded from “Lean Obama” to “Solid Obama”
Mississippi downgraded from “Lean McCain” to “Solid McCain”
New Hampshire downgraded from “Solid Obama” to “Lean Obama”
North Carolina upgraded from “Lean McCain” to “Toss-up”
Oregon upgraded from “Lean Obama” to “Solid Obama”
To account for the new Zogby polls, I have expanded the minimum number of polls included in each of the averages from two to four. This way, not only did Zogby’s Internet wave not remove any polls from the averages, but in most cases it was only included along with another poll to balance it out. This has the duel benefits of reducing the impact of Zogby in the overall averages, and also increasing the amount of data used in two-thirds of the states. The increased data has also allowed me to move the “Solid” line from a lead of 9.0% down to a lead of 8.0%.
Eventually, the solid line will be moved to 7.0%, and only polls from the last two weeks will be used. During the final week of the election, only polls from the previous week will be included in the averages.
State by state details in the extended entry, along with a methodological update.
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