(Dark Blue (236): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (28): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (102): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (86): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
New polls from Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Kentucky (2), Missouri, Montana, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Texas result in no category changes at all. Here is the swing state overview, which is virtually identical to the one from Thursday:
It is possible that the lack of swing state polls in recent weeks makes Obama appear to be better off than he actually is. With the latest national movement toward McCain, it is possible that North Carolina, Indiana, Montana, and North Dakota are not really swing states anymore. Then again, since Obama’s path to victory never actually went through those states, maybe it doesn’t matter.
One thing to keep in mind is that, back in the middle of July, when McCain had a two-week resurgence in national polling, new state polls did not, generally speaking, confirm his rise. So, we will have to see what the new state polls are like before confirming a pro-McCain trend. Current state by state details can be found in the extended entry.
Update: A reader who will go anonymous (we will call him M. Moulitsas–no wait, that is too obvious–how about Markos M.?) writes in to note that polls in the last two weeks from North Dakota, North Carolina, and Montana still show a close campaign. As someone who doesn’t like to argue with poll results, I have to agree. Those states appear as swinging as they ever were.
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska’s five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
For each state, take the last four polls conducted for the state, and average them.
If more than four polls were conducted in the state over the previous thirty days, all polls conducted during that time period are included in the averages.
If polling dates overlap, and make it difficult to determine which polls were the four most recent, include all of the overlapping polls.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation. Also, if a polling firm has conducted more than one of the most recent four polls, all of the polls from that organization are included.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, both the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease and the definition of a “solid” lead will eventually drop to 7.0%.
