Short answer: McCain is about 0.9%-1.0% closer to Obama than he was over most of the last month.
Long Answer: The latest panic for Democrats is a worry that Obama’s national lead is slipping. Mainly, this is fueled by the recent Newsweek poll, that shows Obama ahead by only 3% even though their previous poll, from mid-June, showed Obama ahead by 15%. Over at 538, Nate does a good job sloughing off those worries, by pointing out that Obama’s lead was never 15% in the first place. Looking at the internals of the poll, Meteor Blades DHinMI points out that this new poll is also likely an outlier because, among other demographic shifts, it has an equal number of Republicans and Democrats in the survey sample. Overall, I agree with both Nate and Meteor Blades DHinMI, and think that both polls are likely outliers.
Still, it does appear that the national campaign has tightened a little bit, just not very much. According to Pollster.com, the peak of Obama’s national lead occurred on June 25th, when their national regression line showed Obama ahead by 6.1%, or 48.4% to 42.3%. This was the only day when Pollster showed Obama ahead by 6.0% or more, and it came just after both the Newsweek poll listed above, and a Los Angeles Times poll that showed Obama up 12%. So, the 6.1% lead was a bit of an outlier itself, and should not be considered an actual, solid lead that Obama ever really held.
Looking over the past month of national averages on Pollster.com, most of which I have archived in the presidential forecast page here on Open Left, from June 12th, when Obama first posted a solid lead on McCain, through this past Thursday, Obama’s national lead was almost always between 4.4% and 4.9%. As such, the baseline Obama advantage, from which an improvement or deterioration should be measured, is about 4.6%-4.7%. Currently, Pollster.com shows Obama’s lead at 3.7% nationally, meaning that McCain has picked up about 1.0%. In other words, McCain has gained some ground, but the majority of Obama’s lead remains intact. Yes, McCain has caught up a bit, but he has only erased about 21-23% of Obama’s advantage. This means that 77-79% of Obama’s advantage remains intact.
Also, keep in mind that Obama only pulled to the 4.4%-4.9% lead over McCain on June 12th. During the three previous months, Obama either led by less than the current 3.7%, or even trailed. It is always easy to make it look like someone is declining when you only compare their current performance to their best performance ever. Comparing Obama’s current polling to his 15% lead in Newsweek would be like comparing every game Wilt Chamberlain played to the time when he scored 100 points. It just isn’t a fair comparison, and will always make the person look bad.
Now, don’t mistake me for someone who believes that all is well for Obama, and that he will cruise to victory in November. Rather, I simply want to try and inject some reality into the daily focus on polling. One aspect of that reality is that polling trends do not follow the laws of physics, and are not affected by either gravity or inertia. If a candidate is pulling away, there is no guarantee that trend will continue. If a candidate is catching up, there is no guarantee that trend will continue. So, while McCain has gained about 1% in national polling trends, there is no guarantee he will continue to gain. Hopefully, McCain making up some ground will convince the Obama campaign to stop only playing cautious defense, and also convince more activists that this election is far from over. |
