(Dark Blue (236): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (28): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (102): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (76): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (96): McCain +8.0% or more)
New polls from Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida (2), Massachusetts and Washington show little change. Even though the map doesn’t show it, Arizona moves from “lean McCain” to solid McCain.” (I’ll fix the map later–not in a position to do so right now.) Also, even though the state is still technically a statistical toss-up, McCain has regained a narrow lead in Florida. Over the past week, Obama had a narrow, statistically insignificant lead in the state. In national polling, the campaign continues to hover between a statistical toss-up and a statistically significant lead for Obama.
If this is as bad as the McCain barrage can get, then Obama should be in a strong position. McCain’s best shot still has yet to put him in a statistically insignificant lead nationally, or at a statistically significant lead in states worth 200 electoral votes. I except Obama to gain in polls over the next week, relative to the current standings. From that point, we will have VP picks and the conventions to change and / or define the campaign. This barrage by McCain appears to simply have not been enough.
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska’s five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
For each state, take the last four polls conducted for the state, and average them.
If more than four polls were conducted in the state over the previous thirty days, all polls conducted during that time period are included in the averages.
If polling dates overlap, and make it difficult to determine which polls were the four most recent, include all of the overlapping polls.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation. Also, if a polling firm has conducted more than one of the most recent four polls, all of the polls from that organization are included.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, both the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease and the definition of a “solid” lead will eventually drop to 7.0%.
