(Dark Blue means “Solid Obama,” or Obama +10% or more
Light Blue means “Lean Obama,” or Obama +4.1%-+9.9%
White means “Toss-up,” from between Obama +4.0% to McCain +4.0%
Light Red means “Lean McCain” or McCain +4.1%-+9.9%
Dark Red means “Solid McCain,” or McCain +10.0% or more)
Several changes over the last two days, all from new polls that can be found here.
Two new California polls moves the state from “Lean Obama” to “Solid Obama”
A new Florida poll confirms the state as “Lean McCain”
A new Mississippi poll confirms the state as “Solid McCain”
A new Nevada poll moves the state from “Toss-up” to “Lean McCain”
A new New Hampshire poll moves the state from “Lean McCain” to “Toss-up”
Two new Ohio polls keep the state at “Toss-up,” but now give Obama a narrow lead
Two new Pennsylvania polls keep the state at “Lean Obama”
A new Virginia poll moves the state from “Lean McCain” to “Toss-up”
The only negative movement for Obama is in Nevada. Otherwise, he seems to be slowly solidifying his base. The “Solid Obama” category is now almost as large as the “Lean McCain” and “Solid McCain” categories combined!
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska’s five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-01 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
For each state, take all polls conducted for the state over the previous thirty days, and average them.
If one polling firm has more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days, take only the most recent poll.
Every state has at least two polls. If two polls were not conducted in a state over the last thirty days, use the two most recent polls from any polling firm.
If only one poll has been conducted in a state, then only use that poll.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease. Also, when the amount of data increases, I will be able to start projecting the swing, “toss-up” states. Right now, however, there just isn’t enough data to push those states into one camp or the other.
