(Dark Blue (201): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (50): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (104): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (18): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (165): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Alaska (2), Colorado (2), Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan (2), Minnesota, Ohio (2), Washington and Virginia (2). Also, I have cycled out a huge number of old polls that were taken before the VP and convention season began in earnest. From now trough October 21st, only polls taken within the last 15 days will be included in the averages (with exceptions for states where no polls were taken in the last 15 days, of course). Here is the swing state chart:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
State polling is in a real state of flux right now, making it best to take these numbers with a big grain of salt. Some of the polls were taken during the Biden announcement period. Some were taken during the Democratic convention. Some were taken during the period when Palin breifly made a crater in McCain’s numbers. Still others were taken over the most recent weekend. As such, rather than being a snapshot of how things stand today, it is a mish-mash, palimpsest composite of the last two weeks. Some of the numbers will be weird as a result.
I am feeling a bit better as the day wears on. The Gallup poll from last night was by far the worst poll of the last twenty-four hours. The problem was that it was also the first poll of the last twenty-four hours. At first, it felt like an exact repeat of 2004, but since that time it is clear that it isn’t quite that bad. It still isn’t great, and McCain is ahead now, but it just isn’t quite as terrible as I thought.
* Maine’s four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska’s five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls conducted entirely or partially within the last 15 days are included in the averages. There are two exceptions to this rule.
The first exception are states where no polls were conducted entirely or partially in the last 15 days. Every state has at least one poll.
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last 15 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
During the final two weeks of the election, only polls taken entirely within the past seven days will be included in the averages (with the same exceptions listed above, of course).
