The four tracking polls for today have all been released, and collectively they show Obama ahead 46.75%--45.25% (links can be found in quick hits). Even in the two tracking polls where McCain leads by a single point, Gallup and Rasmussen, Haggai's numbers indicate a strong possibility that Obama led in polling conducted last night. So, it now seems possible--or, actually, it now seems likely--that Obama has regained the national lead.
This is very good news. There are probably several factors behind Obama's newfound momentum, four of which I discuss in the extended entry.
Sarah Palin is wearing off. Most (but not all) early indications were that Palin probably did help McCain, at least from the point of her convention speech onward. Now, however, as tremayne has pointed out, Palin's favorables are rapidly crashing. The lack of substance behind the most cynical VP choice of all time is starting to show. Also, as fladem has written in the past, about three weeks after an insurgent first rises to national prominence, there is typically a popular backlash against that insurgent as people learn more about him / her.
Second, I guess we really were dealing with a convention bounce that is wearing off. I still think it was appropriate to caution against believing that McCain's numbers would naturally drop in the weeks after the convention, because public opinion does not operate according to physical laws and there is never a guarantee that the current campaign will mimic past campaigns. However, in this case, McCain's convention bounce does appear to be following a historic pattern.
Third, the financial crisis simply must be playing a role. It is hard for Republicans to be anything but defensive in a situation like this.
Fourth, McCain's spending spree has died down. Keep in mind that because he accepted public financing, McCain had to blow a huge amount of money toward the end of August and early September. Now, however, he is relying on public funds, RNC money and third-party ads, which overall is an amount of money that Obama can match. Further, progressive third-party spending is ramping up a bit, too.
So, a variety of factors have given Obama the momentum back in the campaign. The state polls won't show this bounce immediately, because the pro-Obama turn can only be seen in the last three days of the tracking polls. In the absence of swing state tracking polls, the four national tracking polls will always be the leading indicators for the campaign. Also, don't be surprised or worried if the Daily Kos and Hotline tracking polls continue to show better numbers for Obama all the way through the election than the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. It has been previously documented that Gallup and Rasmussen are about 3.2%-3.4% more favorable to McCain that all other polling outlets. This doesn't mean that Gallup and Rasmussen are wrong and that the other polling firms are right (or vice versa). It just means that different polls operate on different ends of the measurable spectrum of public opinion, with reality probably in between the two. Remember to always look at all the polls, and focus on the averages.
