Some progressives, like Mark Schmitt and Matt Yglesias, are arguing that one of the reasons the Progressive Block on health care should eventually fold is because passing a health care bill now will be just a start which can be fixed next year.
Schmitt:
Use the 60-vote Senate to pass whatever they can pass now -- we liberals will grumble but live with it -- and then use reconciliation next year to fix it.
Yglesias:
It's a bill liberals would find horribly disappointing, but you could imagine it getting sixty votes in the senate.
Then if you get that done, all you need is a second bill. At that point, changing the co-op rules to make it work like a real public option, making the subsidies more generous, expanding Medicaid, and other wholesome progressive stuff all becomes budget-relevant material that can be done through reconciliation with only fifty votes.
This idea isn't going to work. It rings as hollow as the argument about how, if it turned out that the stimulus wasn't big enough, we could always pass a second stimulus later on. That worked out really well:
- Just after the inauguration, Hotline polled the country on the stimulus package. Even with a question wording that emphasized increasing the deficit, there was clear majority support:
Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by FD. Jan. 21-24, 2009. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5 (for all registered voters).
"In general, do you support or oppose Congress and the President passing an $825 billion economic stimulus plan to jumpstart the economy, even if it means increasing the federal deficit in order to do so?"
Support: 54%
Oppose 34%
- In July, Hotline polled on support for a second stimulus, using a question wording much more favorable than the one above. Even with the better wording, there was clear majority opposition to a second stimulus:
Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by FD. July 9-13, 2009. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5 (for all registered voters).
"As you may know, there's been some discussion about the potential for another stimulus package that would be designed to provide more economic stimulus to the economy. If there was a proposal for another stimulus package, would you support it or oppose it?"
Support: 36%
Oppose: 52%
Given how infrequently Congress passes unpopular legislation, passing a second stimulus has become a political impossibility. The "oh, it isn't good enough, but we can fix it later" argument completely failed when it came to the stimulus.
And so it is the case with health care reform. Right now, we are only at 45 votes for the public option in the Senate. With Democratic, Presidential and health care reform approval all sliding quickly, the idea that it will be easier to reach 50 votes in the Senate next year does not seem realistic at all.
It is going to be extremely difficult just to pass this bill. The idea that we can pass it again next year, when both the reform and the people passing it will be significantly less popular, doesn't hold up.
Passing a public option is a once in a generation chance that we have now, and only now. It will fail unless the Progressive Block holds the line, and unless we can get fifty votes for a public option in the Senate. The political situation probably won't be this favorable again until kids I don't even have, and I am not even currently trying to have, are in middle school. If we fold and give into the "oh, we can fix it later" canard, we will be having this same argument again in fifteen years time.
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