Accountability Now has scored some press lately by offering a more systematic approach for running primary challenges against center-right Democrats. The group, of which I am a member but for which I do not speak, has not committed to any targets at this point in time. However, the more I think about possible targets, it has become almost self-evident that the bottom line criteria for credible, progressive primary challenge in 2010 will be a Democratic member of Congress who votes against President Obama's budget in April. Mind you, I don't speak for the group, and there will inevitably be other criteria for a primary challenge. Still, short of a major incident of corruption, a vote against President Obama's budget from the right strikes me as a necessary condition for a credible primary challenge next year.
In the extended entry, I expand upon this thought. But here is the short version:
Mounting a credible primary challenge requires proving that the incumbent is not a good Democrat.
In the current economic and political climate, proving whether someone is a good Democrat means whether or not they support the Democrat who is most popular among other Democrats (President Obama) on the biggest issue of the day (the economy). So, proving you are a good Democrat means whether or not you support President Obama's economic plan.
Due to it's sheer size, whether or not you support President Obama's economic plan means whether or not you support his FY 2010 budget.
Here is why, short of a major incidence of corruption, a Democratic member of Congress probably has to vote against President Obama's April budget in order to face a credible 2010 progressive challenger:
The budget is an all-encompassing vote on Obama's economic plan: The sheer size of the budget, $3.5 trillion, dwarfs any other aspect of the Obama administration's economic agenda. The budget will be more than four times larger than the stimulus package. It will include the major funding for health care. If TARP is further expanded, it will come in the budget process (good luck ever getting more bailout money through Congress otherwise). In short, it will be nearly impossible to make a credible argument that a member of Congress who votes in favor of the budget actually opposes President Obama's economic plan, just as it will be nearly impossible to make a credible argument that a member of Congress who votes against the budget actually supports President Obama's economic plan. This is the vote that will determine, in the mind of the electorate, whether or not a member of Congress favored or opposed President Obama's economic plan.
It won't be possible to primary challenge a Democrat who favors President Obama's economic plan. Given President Obama's enormous popularity among Democrats, barring a major corruption scandal, it will not be possible to mount a successful primary challenge against a Democratic member of Congress who backed President Obama's economic plan. This means, in short, that it will simply not be possible to seriously threaten a Democratic member of Congress with a primary challenge if that Democrat has voted in favor of President Obama's budget. So, from where I sit, it seems that if a Democratic member of Congress wants to avoid a primary challenge in 2010, all they have to do is vote in favor of President Obama's budget.
There is no state or district in the country where even a plurality of Democratic primary voters oppose President Obama's budget. While a Democratic member of Congress can probably ward off a primary challenge by voting for President Obama's budget, any Democratic member of Congress who votes against Obama's budget makes them highly vulnerable to a primary challenge. This is because there isn't a single state or district in the country, no matter how red, were a majority, or a plurality, of Democrats are opposed to President Obama's budget. In the latest Gallup poll on the budget, only 5% of Democrats, and only 25% of Independents, had a negative view of President Obama's budget. This means that opposition to President Obama's budget will put any Democratic member of Congress at odds with the overwhelming majority of primary voters in his or her district on the defining piece of legislation in 2009.
Given all of this, the primary challenges that take place in 2010 will inextricably tied to how a Democratic member of Congress votes on President Obama's budget in April. A vote in favor of the budget makes a progressive primary challenge virtually impossible. A vote against it will make a progressive primary challenge fairly easy, at least as far as primary challenges go. As such, my feeling is that the budget fight will show the way for 2010 primary challenges. It won't be the only requirement for a primary challenge, but it will probably be a necessary condition.
STATE BLOGS
Powered by: SoapBlox