Letting It Happen Again Before We Prevent It From Happening Again

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 16:18


I keep reading Secretary Geithner's speech today. The phrase that keeps going over and over in my head is that "we are letting it happen again before we prevent it from happening again."

Geithner identifies the financial crisis as being "caused by banks taking too much risk." In another wording, he characterizes it as a series of "bad lending decisions" made by banks. The bad lending decisions that resulted in this excessive risk were caused by "The lack of an appropriate and modern regulatory regime and resolution authority."

Overall, Geithner's argument is that this financial crisis could have been avoided if there was a better regulatory system, and that we will need to revamp financial regulations to avoid another crisis caused by bad lending decisions. That certainly rings true. I can't really argue with that assessment.

As such, the second to last paragraph in the speech sums up this fear (emphasis mine):

But as we fight the current crisis, we must also start the process of ensuring a crisis like this never happens again. As President Obama has said, we can no longer sustain 21st century markets with 20th century regulations. Our nation deserves better choices than, on one hand, accepting the catastrophic damage caused by a failure like Lehman Brothers, or on the other hand being forced to pour billions of taxpayer dollars into an institution like AIG to protect the economy against that scale of damage. The lack of an appropriate and modern regulatory regime and resolution authority helped cause this crisis, and it will continue to constrain our capacity to address future crises until we put in place fundamental reforms.

While Geithner's assessment of the problem rings true, his look to the future at the end of the speech strikes me as backward. If the lack of a "modern regulatory regime and resolution authority" both caused this crisis and will cause future crises, then shouldn't we construct that new regulatory regime first, and then hand money out to the private sector second? Otherwise, according to Geithner's own logic, aren't we just handing out more money to the people who caused the crisis, without any guarantees they won't just do the same thing again?

More in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: Letting It Happen Again Before We Prevent It From Happening Again
This gets back to the fundamental issue of trust that I discussed earlier today, and that would have led me to vote against the bailout both in October and in January. We shouldn't be handing over any money to the people who caused the crisis until there are guarantees in place that those people will no longer be allowed to make the same bad decisions that made them rich, but which destroyed our economy. Before we give them any more money, we need the guarantees--aka, new financial regulations--first. Since we have no guarantees now, basically this is just trusting the banks who made the bad decisions not to make them again. Trust just isn't good enough for me right now.

Geithner admits that the current crisis was caused by bad decisions from financial institutions. He also says that we won't be able to stop future bad decisions from financial institutions until there is a new system of financial regulations. My conclusion from all this, based on Geithner's own words, is that we shouldn't be giving financial institutions more money until, at the very least, we can prevent those bad decisions. Otherwise, we are letting a second financial crisis unfold before we can put in safeguards to prevent future financial crises. We need to prevent them from making more bad decisions before we let them make any more decisions.

No Democrat should have voted in favor of releasing the second round of TARP money before, at the very least, President Obama had signed the TARP Reform and Accountability Act into law. Even according to Geithner's own logic, handing out this money without new regulations in place gives us no guarantee at all the bad lending decisions will stop. In short, we are doing this all backwards. We are letting another crisis happen before we prevent another crisis from happening.

I am very nervous about all this. Until we have new laws preventing these "bad decisions," I don't want to give the people who made the bad decisions a single dime.


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If you got back to the 30's (4.00 / 3)
FDR fixed the banks in the first few months of his administration.  

Many of the resgulator schemes came later that year or next year(eg the '34 securities act).

Geithner is saying the right thing here.  One of the issues lurking beneath the surface is that the adoption of ERP systems by most of corporate america makes it possible to think of a regulatory system that releases data far more often and with far greater detail than is done now.  The existing regulatory scheme is designed to fit a world that ran on paper.  The new regulatory system will need to be built on a world that runs on computers.  

Wired magazine has a great article about something called XBRL, and describes what a new regulatory scheme will look like.  The article, which makes reference to how Nate Silver changed political reporting by analyzing polling data, suggests that the key is get much more detailed information into the public domain so that investors can understand what is actually going in corporations.  It is an interesting read.



when FDR came into office, most of the banks had already failed (4.00 / 3)
and had been shut down by the Hoover administration.

Therefore his Treasury department was able to immediately proceed to restructure the banks and examine their balance sheets in order to determine which ones were sound and which ones were not.

Today, the banks haven't failed (at least, not totally) and Obama is asking us to prop them up for a little while longer while they keep feeding at the public trough.

Key difference between today and the 1930s was that the free-marketeers of that time hadn't understood that sucking at the teat of the government could be so sweet. They would never have dreamed up anything as audacious as the Paulson bailout or Geithner's plan--schemes to directly transfer public wealth into the coffers of private industry.



[ Parent ]
plus we have the FDIC thanks to him--and existing processes they're now ignoring altogether -- (0.00 / 0)
and many agencies and many existing regulations they're continuing to not use at all to resolve this.

[ Parent ]
Not Exactly (4.00 / 2)
FDR's "Bank Holiday":

March 5, 1933
Roosevelt declares bank holiday

When Franklin Roosevelt started his first term in the White House in 1933, he inherited a nation in the depths of the Depression. A record 13 million Americans were unemployed and businesses were drowning in red ink. Perhaps even more pressing was the head-spinning string of bank failures which had triggered a frantic run on the nation's savings vaults. The wave of withdrawals by panic-stricken depositors further dried up banks' already-depleted supply of liquid assets and pushed the nation's banking system to the brink of disaster. On March 5--the day after being sworn into office--Roosevelt stepped into the breach and declared a "bank holiday," which, for four days forced the closure of the nation's banks and halted all financial transactions. The "holiday" not only helped stem the frantic run on banks, but gave Roosevelt time to push the Emergency Banking Act through the legislative chain. Passed by Congress on March 9, the act handed the president a far-reaching grip over bank dealings and "foreign transactions." The legislation also paved the path for solvent banks to resume business as early as March 10. Three short days later nearly 1,000 banks were up and running again.

Now, that was change we could believe in!

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
my mistake, thank you (4.00 / 1)
I recall (from Jonathan Alter's book) that Hoover wanted to close the banks himself, but was too chicken to do it without having FDR publicly sign on to the plan. FDR ignored Hoover's request and waited until he was in office to shut down the banks.

[ Parent ]
Not, if Craig Crawford was educating us! (0.00 / 0)
     I just heard Crawford remark, "What liberals/progressives want is change that is too radical. . . for our system of. . .capitalsim. What?!
    As has been noted in many diaries on this matter, some of the changes needed are, ironically, pragmatic and very American, unless you have not read any American History!
    Radicalism is creating complex and arcane financial instruments, with no oversight and regulatory capabilities to monitor them, before they destroy our economy!!!!

[ Parent ]
XBRL & anti trust (4.00 / 3)
Yes, that is an interesting article in wired. XBRL, or something like it, is a good idea that will probably start to happen in the next couple of years. However, that type of thing will take about 10-20 years to propagate through the computing infrastructure of most big corporations. Software development and deployment with new XML standards is time consuming.

A really big problem I see, as a "light-weight" investor, is that the bigger the company, the less meaningful current reporting requirements are. Try figuring our what, for instance, Microsoft or AT&T; is actually doing based on their 10K's and other such reports: you get no transparency, because their huge size permits them to obscure their real profit or loss on any business venture they participate in.

One the other hand, take the small company I work for: if we were public, then it would be pretty easy to figure out what we are actually doing based on reading our required financial reports.

Ultimately, I think anti-trust is the huge issue here. Oligopoly is the reason things have gone bad. There can be no transparency when every market is controlled by an oligopoly, which is more or less the case today.

ec=-8.50 soc=-8.41   (3,967 Watts)


[ Parent ]
I read the article, (4.00 / 3)
and it was extremely interesting, but left a sour aftertaste in my mouth.

It's a new free-market fundamentalism--"look, we don't need market regulation as long as we make things sufficiently transparent via technology!" As if somehow the mere availability of information would suffice to create a fair and just economic order that is self-regulating.

Greed is a part of human nature. No matter how transparent you make it, someone will figure out how to game the system and amass enormous amounts of wealth at the expense of others. And to counter this we will need regulations, laws, and yes, punishments for those who break those laws. The techies are squeamish, and hate the idea that we have to enforce laws and punish those who break them; they subscribe to the kindergarten idea that everyone agrees they should get one and only one cupcake, never realizing that there's always a bully, bigger and stronger than the rest of the kids, who thinks he should have the whole box of cupcakes, and has the means to take it.

It's deeply ironic to me that techies, who worship the Internet, don't realize that it exists, in its present form, only because a wise and farsighted statesman realized that the government should step in and develop high-speed computing, then turn it over to private industry when the networks were sufficiently mature. They think it sprang full-grown from the head of Zeus without any deliberate planning, a mere emergent phenomenon subvenient upon its users each doing what was in their individual interest.

Technology is no cure for human nature; and until the happy day comes when humanity transcends the need for government, we will always need laws and rules and a government to enforce them.


[ Parent ]
I dont know (4.00 / 3)
I think it take a while to actually get the regulation right.  I'm not sure we have that kind of time right now, and I'm wary of rushing regulation through at a breakneck pace.  Its too important, and when things get done fast on the hill, there is often more opportunity for special interests to insert provisions favorable to them without adequate scrutiny.

The real question is what the fuck Obama is doing with the Geithner plan to begin with and why he won't tell us the truth about how much it will cost.

A friend of mine on another message board, a hedge fund manager in London, had this to say today and I think its completely accurate:

"The plan is dumb, it's a way of giving people taxpayer money without telling anyone.  So I give you 100 USD, you give me 50% of the returns on 800 USD of assets. If things go well I make great returns, if they go badly the taxpayer wears all the pain. But it's not a bail out. Nope. Who in the love of God thinks this isn't a stupid bail out which they have no control over. If they buy the assets then they get all the upside and only a small fraction more downside.

ALSO this is NOT a problem of liquidity, these assets have REAL LOSSES not paper losses. I can't believe these politicans.  Give them the AIG tax which does nothing and rob the taxpayer blind with the other hand."

I think the last part is really important.  We are getting snookered here, and too many people are taking the bait on the AIG issue.  That stuff is just small potatoes.  Politicians are dangling shiny baubles in front of the public's eyes, while their cronies are robbing the treasury blind.

John McCain: Health insurance for low income children represents an "unfunded liability."


2nd time ive rec'd you today. (4.00 / 1)
refresh the hair and makeup on paulsons plan and throw it back out there.  did anyone really think it wouldnt be a situation where the public would be taking it hard and fast once again?  do cosmetic changes fool people?

[ Parent ]
This is the funny thing (4.00 / 2)
Nothing about any of these plans has really changed in the end.  If anything, the Geithner plan is worse than the original Paulson plan.  At least with the original plan, the taxpayer had all the upside.

Yet now because Obama is proposing this steaming pile of shit you have lots of people going along with it, often the same people who opposed essentially the same (or even better!) plan last fall when Paulson/Bush were behind it.

John McCain: Health insurance for low income children represents an "unfunded liability."


[ Parent ]
Actually, We Don't Even Have 20th Century Regulations (4.00 / 3)
That's the real problem here.  Do I think we should have 21st-Century regulations?  Absolutely!  Heck, we should have 22nd-Century ones, so far as I'm concerned!  But let's not falsify the historical record here.  We've spent the last few decades destroying the New Deal regulatory structure, and that's the most basic source of our problems here.

We went back to a pre-1933 world, and we got ourselves a pre-1933 result.

Paging Dr. Santayana to the Green Room! Dr. Santayana to the Green Room!

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


Self justification (0.00 / 0)
Hey, if this is the excuse Geithner needs to justify changing his historic position on bank regulation, more power to it.

[ Parent ]
he's not changing his position at all -- and the whole administration just made the Senate stop the bonus bill -- (0.00 / 0)
if they really wanted regulation, they would have built it in.

they are explicitly and intentionally still not doing that.


[ Parent ]
i dont know. (0.00 / 0)
maybe obama is secretly a populist and he is just waiting a few decades to let it out.  maybe its a trick to pretend to be the errand boy of the illuminati in order to gain access to their secret enclave in order to destroy them once and for all.  im a true believer.

[ Parent ]
Populism isn't always good policy.... (0.00 / 0)
Anger is a crappy way to govern, especially if you curt off your nose to spite your face... Republicans have done that very well for many years... let's not become like them.

Wall street has the country by the balls, it always will... with everyone's 401K's now, it's harder than ever to take them to the woodshed without a big public outcry....

Obama's working within the system to use their greed to actually fix the problems they caused... I think it's very clever and I think it will yield much better results than taking them down and having to build them up again from scratch... something we've never done before...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
'Cos the bonus tax bill would have derailed the bank rescue...` (0.00 / 0)
Obama is a pragmatist first, idealogue second....

It will still pass, only later... after the banks are all in on the rescue plan and can't back out....

It's actually very clever on his part...

Here's the question you should ask.... do you want to punish the banks or do you want economic recovery?

The second is way more important to me... the banks will be punished, BTW.... they are going to have to realize losses they've been hiding for the past couple of years...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
economic recovery is not at all dependent on pouring trillions into a few banks and hedge funds -- (0.00 / 0)
in any way.

[ Parent ]
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