Progressive caucus co-chair Raul Grijalva has told The Hill that the caucus will not, as a group, draw a specific line in the sand on the climate change / energy bill--at least for now.
Liberal House Democrats are shifting their political tactics on climate change after failing to secure a public option in the new healthcare reform law.
The move comes in the wake of liberals having to walk back threats that they would vote against a healthcare bill without a government-run program.
"Drawing the line in the sand too quickly was part of the lesson we learned on healthcare," the co-chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), told The Hill.
Grijalva voiced strong concerns about the direction of the climate and energy bill, which has moved toward the center as Democrats try to build a bipartisan consensus that can win 60 Senate votes.
Key takeaways from this:
Hard to argue with a need to change tactics, given the ultimate failure of the Progressive Block strategy on the public option.
Still, Grijalva did not rule out drawing a line in the sand--he just said that the Progressive Caucus was not going to draw a line this early in the process.
The reason the public option line didn't work is because defeating the health reform bill because it did not go far enough was only supported by 12-13% of the population. Any left-wing line in the sand that is drawn on the climate bill, or any other legislation, needs to have more popular support among the Democratic rank and file to be an effective. Specifically, it needs to be less popular among the Democratic base to cross that line than to cross President Obama by defeating a bill he is supporting.
Given the popularity of President Obama among the rank and file, it the line that is drawn is going to have to be over something pretty odious. A bill that strips EPA authority to regulate greenhouse gasses, or guts the Clean Air Act, are probably the best bets. Still, I worry that even those concessions might be supported by the rank and file if President Obama, supported by many green groups, says it is still a good bill. Driving up popular support for defeating a bill that has too many concessions will be a monumental task, but it is still necessary to any "line in the sand" strategy working.
Still, even with all this said, it might be easier to convince people that the energy / climate bill is worth defeating because it has too many concessions than the health care bill, since there are potentially some pretty clear ways that the bill sends energy and climate policy in America backward. Stripping EPA regulatory authority, or gutting the Clean Air Act, seem more obviously to be backward movement than anything in the health reform bill outside of reproductive rights.