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If Democrats win the White House, and expand their Senate majority to, say, 56 or 57 seats, what sort of legislative policies should we expect to pass under a Democratic trifecta? In addition to policies proposed by the Presidential candidates, I think we can find clues in the legislation that has currently been either vetoed by Bush, or defeated in the Senate by a cloture vote even though a majority was in favor of the legislation. Considering that a lot of people are disgruntled and discouraged right now, it is a reasonable question to investigate. After all, we do need to know what it is we are fighting for on the electoral front.
First, here are the bills that Bush has vetoed, and which so far have not been overturned:
- H.R. 1591, U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans' Care, Katrina Recovery, and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act, 2007. Override attempt failed in House, 222-203 (284 needed). A later version of the bill that excluded certain aspects of the initial legislation that the President disapproved of, H.R. 2206, was enacted as Pub.L. 110-28 with the President's approval.
- June 20, 2007: Vetoed S. 5, Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act of 2007.
- October 3, 2007: Vetoed H.R. 976, Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2007 ("SCHIP"). Override attempt failed in House, 273-156 (286 votes needed).
- November 13, 2007: Vetoed H.R. 3043, Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2008.
OK, so without question a trifecta would result in at least 100,000 to 130,000 of the 160,000 or so American troops in Iraq being withdrawn in about one year. It would also result in an expansion of S-Chip and medical research utilizing stem cells. Several major government agencies would also be funded in different ways. Now, here are the successful filibusters where six more Democrats would be enough to break a filibuster (I left out "sense of the Senate" resolutions):
- October 24th, S 2205: A bill to authorize the cancellation of removal and adjustment of status of certain alien students who are long-term United States residents and who entered the United States as children, and for other purposes.
- September 19th, Specter amendment to HR 1585: To restore habeas corpus for those detained by the United States.
- September 18th, S 1257: A bill to provide the District of Columbia a voting seat and the State of Utah an additional seat in the House of Representatives.
- July 11th, Webb amendment to HR 1585: To specify minimum periods between deployment of units and members of the Armed Forces for Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom.
- April 18th, S 3: A bill to amend part D of title XVIII of the Social Security Act to provide for fair prescription drug prices for Medicare beneficiaries.
- With eight new Senators, which is a long-shot but not impossible, we also get the employee free choice act, which is one of those holy grail type positive feedback loops for progressives and Democrats. With seven Senators, we get the Intelligence authorization act.
In addition to the legislation already listed above on stem cells, S-Chip, Iraq and spending on government agencies, include voting rights for DC, a restoration of habeas corpus, increased troop readiness, and lower prescription drug prices under Medicare, and some minor immigration reform centered on students. Tack on a couple more Senators, and we also get
Outside of what has been vetoed and filibustered, there are other things to expect. First, we won't have to deal with any more cabinet and judicial appointments from Bush, and the new President will instead get to make his or her own. Second, there will be no conservative signing statements to what Congress does pass. Third, and perhaps most importantly, there will be the legislative initiatives proposed by the new President on key issues such as energy / global warming, communications / net neutrality, health care and education. How likely those are to pass with between 41-44 and Republican Senators is impossible to say in a general sense. However, most of them probably would pass, given that at least Arlen Specter and Olympia Snow will still be in the Senate no matter what.
So, basically, that is what to expect under a Democratic trifecta. I am not at all confident that the energy and health care plans will go far enough to solve the major problems we face, and I am also not confident that we will get total withdrawal from Iraq, but what is done in these areas should at least be steps in the right direction. We will probably still have FISA struggles, trade struggles, and immigration struggles that will not be resolved even under the trifecta. And there will be other problems too, which for one reason or another are not coming to mind right now. But, now that you can see what you should expect, hopefully it at least is easier to make up your mind on how hard you want to work on elections for the next year or so. It is always good to know what you are getting involved with, and I hope that this description helps advance that end. |
