Given the post earlier today about what we should expect if Democrats pick up not only the Presidency, but also around six seats in the Senate, I think it is useful to look at the Senate electoral forecast right now. Here is the breakdown, as I currently see it (many recent polls on these campaigns can be found here):
Lean / Likely partisan switches (four Democratic pickups, in alphabetical order)
- Colorado (Republican held open seat): I know that one poll with a ridiculous amount of undecideds has shown this campaign to be somewhat close, but I still don't see a way for Republicans to win an open seat in a state where progressives have been seriously on the advance for the past four years. I mean, how could Republicans possibly win in a year like 2008 with their second choice 2004 candidate? Seems extremely unlikely to me that Udall loses this.
- New Hampshire (Republican Jon Sununu, incumbent): Conservative Sununu is wildly out of step with the direction New Hampshire is taking, and well behind in all polling. Shaheen did lose this campaign once before, so like Colorado it probably isn't a guarantee. However, with a comfortably double-digit polling advantage, she clearly has a big edge.
- New Mexico (Republican held open seat): Udall crushes all opponents in every poll, typically by 15-18 points. Good night.
- Virginia (Republican held open seat): This campaign was over the day Mark Warner declared. He leads by more than 20 points in most polls. Both New Mexico and Virginia are better pickup opportunities than even Pennsylvania was last year.
Already Competitive Seats (0-2 Democratic pickups, in alphabetical order)
- Kentucky (Mitch McConnell, incumbent): McConnell is below 50%, and only ahead by single digits, in every poll. This is fantastic news, since Republicans will pour huge amounts of resources into defending this seat, making every other seat in this category more difficult for them. Perhaps best of all, no matter how many resources they pour in here, it will be more than matched by a wave of progressive advocacy organization money. Every advocacy group in the country is determined to defeat McConnell, and the barrage that has dropped his numbers below 50% is only getting started. Finally, rumors of an even stronger Democratic candidate than AG Greg Stumbo persist, which could spell the end for McConnell and revenge for Dsachle in 2004.
- Louisiana (Democrat Mary Landrieu, incumbent): Landrieu only has fairly Republican opposition so far, but Katrina destroyed large parts of her voting base and she should be considered vulnerable even now. There is still plenty of time for a bigger name Republican to jump in the campaign against her, so this seat could move up a tier depending on further recruitment.
- Minnesota (Republican Norm Coleman, incumbent): Coleman is under 50% in every poll against both Al Franken and Mike Ciresi. Every poll also shows either a tie or Coleman ahead by single-digits. That spells a vulnerable incumbent in any campaign, much less in a blue state that is certain to be highly targeted by the much better financed DSCC. Persaonlly, I still expect Al Franken to be the next Senator from Minnesota.
- Oregon (Republican Gordon Smith, incumbent): If he had run, progressive Peter DeFazio would have remarkably made Oregon the fifth near-certain Democratic pickup this cycle. While that remains easily the biggest disappointment on the Senate front his cycle, just like McConnell and Coleman, Smith is under 50% and only ahead b single digits in every poll against every Democrat in the campaign. As such, he is clearly vulnerable even without DeFazio in the campaign.
Potentially Competitive Seats (0-1 Democratic pickups, in alphabetical order)
- Maine (Republican Susan Collins, incumbent): Popular Democratic congressman Tom Allen is challenging Collins, and this campaign was widely expected to be very competitive. However, in poll after poll, Collins is over 50% and ahead by double-digits. It surprises me that this race looks like such a longshot right now, but I can't spin those bad poll numbers away. This is the second biggest disappointment this cycle.
- North Carolina (Republican Elizabeth Dole, incumbent): Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan looks like she can make a race of it against Libby Dole, who isn't very popular among Republican activists after her disastrous stint as NRSC chair in 2006. Polls show the campaign is doable for Hagen, if difficult. As she ages, Dole also won't be the tough campaigner she once was.
- South Dakota (Democrat Tim Johnson, incumbent): Johnson, who has narrowly won two elections in this red state, can't really campaign for medical reasons. However, so far, he has avoided any top-tier challengers, and a poll even showed him up 14 points against popular Republican Governor Mike Rounds. Johnson should be safe, but until the primary takes place, he isn't out of the woods.
- Texas (Republican John Cornyn, incumbent): Rick Noriega is popular among grassroots Democrats, while Republican Jon Cornyn is neither very popular nor very bright. Polls show Cornyn just above 50% against Noreiga, and Texas is a very large state that will require a lot of money to unseat an incumbent. This campaign strikes me as very similar to North Carolina: possible, but difficult.
Other Republican held seats to watch: Alaska (Democratic candidate pending), Idaho (Democrat LaRocco holds his Republican opponent close to 50%), Nebraska (Democratic candidate pending)
Other Democratic held seats to watch: New Jersey (Lautenberg unpopular, but the Garden state is a famous Republican sinkhole. I hope Republicans run at him hard, and dump another several million into a losing effort in New Jersey, ala 2004, 2005 and 2006)
So, even with mild disappointments so far in Maine, Mississippi Nebraska and Oregon, this is obviously an excellent, rosy picture for Democrats. It is dramatically better than the Senate picture two years ago, and we won six seats in that cycle. I am feeling about 5-6 right now, but that could go up as the campaign moves forward. A nine-seat pickup, allowing Democrats to reach 60 votes, is even an outside possibility if all the pieces fall into place. If we get Kleeb in Nebraska, a top candidate in Alaska, and if the Allen, Hagan, LaRocco, and Noreiga campaigns all pick up steam, then maybe, just maybe, nine is within reach. If that happens, then Democrats will have four near-certain pickups, and eight decent chances. For the under-financed NRSC in a Democratic year, that might be too much of a wave to hold off. |
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