Kentucky Senate: Fischer Gains Another 6 on Lunsford

by: Matt Stoller

Tue May 06, 2008 at 14:32



Last week, I blogged about a nasty fight in Kentucky between progressive  businessman Greg Fischer and Bruce Lunsford to take the Senate nomination.  It's an incredibly important race, because the winner will take on Mitch McConnell, and Lunsford can't beat him.  Lunsford's nursing home company defrauded Medicare of a few hundred million dollars, and he keeps losing statewide primaries, but for a variety of reasons, the Kentucky Democratic establishment is behind him (along with Chuck Schumer).  

After Fischer pointed out Lunsford's horrible record, he gained a quick 13 points in the primary voting universe from 47-9 to 43-18.  Both Fischer and Lunsford have been on the air, and Lunsford has now been pounding Fischer with strong negative ads.  Still, in the last week, Fischer has gained another six points according to the last Survey USA poll to 41-22.  That's a 19 point race, which looks steep until you consider that three weeks ago the race showed a 38 point gap.

I did a bit of math, and it looks like Fischer is gaining between .75 and .9 points a day with the ongoing air war, with his rate of gain slowing.  That makes sense, as his TV campaign introduced himself to a lot of voters who didn't know him and so a large boost was inevitable.  The counter-attack by Lunsford, and the endorsement by top Kentucky Democrats slowed his momentum.  Fischer simply can't put it away without seriously ratcheting up his TV buys, but he can and is closing the gap extremely quickly.  By 5/20, this should be a five point race.  Moreover, Lunsford is dropping, which means that he will probably end up with a floor in the high thirties while Fischer will have a floor in the low thirties.  That's election day.  And that means this one could come down to the undecided voters.

Fischer does have a shot here, though it is uphill.  There is more to come in this race.
Matt Stoller :: Kentucky Senate: Fischer Gains Another 6 on Lunsford
Tags: , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Kentucky Senate: Fischer Gains Another 6 on Lunsford | 24 comments
Why I strongly disagree (0.00 / 0)
http://barefootandprogressive....

You know me. I'm all about Ditching Mitch. That is the bottom line.

And those who back Greg Fischer have still not sold me on the argument that Greg Fischer has a better chance of beating McConnell than Bruce Lunsford. Their argument seems to be: "Bruce has baggage, therefore Fischer is better". Quite frankly, that's not convincing. And the reasons that Greg would have less of a chance of Ditching Mitch keep piling up for me. These are the main two:

First: Money. As Jake noted yesterday, Fischer's financial disclosure shows that Fischer reluctance to dump millions into his campaign might actually stem from.... the lack of available millions to spend. His disclosure is yonder. It's not what it was made out to be, to say the least.

These are the facts: Mitch will probably have close to $20 million. Fischer just doesn't have the money to compete by himself. He's not getting DSCC money from Schumer, who doesn't take him seriously. He's not getting money from Labor, who don't take him seriously. And he's not going to get money from any independent groups when the initial head-to-head polls with Mitch would come out after the primary, which we all know will show him WAY down.

Fischer would be taking a knife to a Howitzer fight.

Second: Much to my chagrin, this is a more conservative than liberal state. Who is going to appeal more to conservative Dems and Republicans, who are necessary to win this election? Someone intoning basic liberal talking points in a soft monotone voice? Or someone who can say that he too was fooled by Fletcher, and now he's ready to have faith in the Democrats to right the Bush/Fletcher/McConnell wrongs that they have committed over the last several years? Again, I don't like it, but liberalism (which I proudly subscribe to) just isn't going to win this election on its own. The awful truth, folks.

It's about ditching Mitch folks, and as much as I have problems with Lunsford, Fischer just hasn't convinced me that he can beat Mitch.

UPDATE: Want additional proof?

From the SUSA poll out today, check out the numbers among moderates:

Moderates:
Lunsford: 47%
Fischer: 20%

Eyes on the prize. Ditch Mitch.


um (0.00 / 0)
It looks like the guy defrauded Medicare out of $200M.
[ Parent ]
well (0.00 / 0)
no matter what you perceive, we're stuck with what we have, and I've yet to see any type of argument from anyone on why Fischer has a chance against Mitch besides "Bruce has baggage". Fischer's a nice guy, but a soft-spoken liberal with no money in KY is likely to be McConnell chum.
[ Parent ]
ok (4.00 / 1)
Look, if you want to advocate for nominating a corrupt crony criminal, go for it.  I don't think that makes a strong candidate, and there are plenty of folks who will hold back if Lunsford is the nominee who will not hold back if it's Fischer.
[ Parent ]
and... (0.00 / 0)
... there are hordes of disgruntled conservative democrats and republicans who are going to hold back from Fischer, and they are the ones that are going to beat Mitch, not liberals like me.

Reality bites, but we have to make the most of what we can and Ditch Mitch. I've worked way to hard over the last year with the Ditch Mitch movement to let him get off the hook simply because I don't like Bruce Lunsford. This isn't Maryland and Virginia, this is a statewide KY race.

[ Parent ]
Lunsford will impair the entire progressive movement (4.00 / 1)
I'm not being hyperbolic at all.  Having this asshole as a sentate candidate will make Democrats EVERYWHERE look bad.  

[ Parent ]
will... (0.00 / 0)
... he filibuster SCHIP, the Webb amendments, an exit strategy from Iraq and equal pay for women? No, he won't.

Some perspective, please. The guy ain't Mitch. And we can at least stalk him and hold him accountable, unlike Mitch, who doesn't give a shit what anyone thinks in KY. I've had to live with him for 24 years, almost all of my life. NO MORE.

[ Parent ]
will... (0.00 / 0)
...he give republicans a cartoonishly horrible candidate to hang around our necks at a national level, someone to parade in front of Fox News as "the kind of crooks the Democrats are running this year," someone to demolish electorally simply with ads that restate his freakish career?  Yes, he will.

Money isn't everything.  If you think he's dropping like a rock in the polls now, wait until McConnell attacks.  This guy will hit the pavement harder and faster than any Schumer recruit this cycle.

I don't want any crooks and frauds running for national office ... up until Lunsford announced that's for the most part been a strategic differentiator for the democrats ...

[ Parent ]
up 19 points... (0.00 / 0)
... and dropping like a rock?

He's gone from 42% to 41% over the past month.... yea you're right, he's in a free fall...

[ Parent ]
selective use of numbers (0.00 / 0)
He's dropping, and two weeks is ample time to close the gap if Lunsford's track record is any indication.

From the post at the top of the page: "After Fischer pointed out Lunsford's horrible record, he gained a quick 13 points in the primary voting universe from 47-9 to 43-18."

[ Parent ]
ummm... (0.00 / 0)
that's because Fischer finally opened up his wallet and started running ads. Nobody knew who he was before that. If He had actually started running when he entered the race almost 3 months prior, he actually would have had a great chance to beat Bruce. But he didn't.

Once again, Reality bites.

It's about MITCH now.

[ Parent ]
criminal? (0.00 / 0)
what was he convicted of again? there's plenty of stuff to criticize Lunsford about, but let's get real. Let's leave that crap to Red State, OK?
[ Parent ]
Holding Back (0.00 / 0)
Amen  to that about holding back if its Lunsford. I can tell you that there is NO ENTHUSIASM in Lunsford's  corner, if you are coerced into supporting him, browbeaten into supporting him, cajoled into supporting him, and yes, threatened into supporting him, where OH, where is the enthusiasm in THAT?

Fischer's camp is VOLUNTEER, grassroots, and there IS excitement in it. From Paducah to Pikeville, Covington to Somerset....we SICK and TIRED of same ol same ol Dale Emmons, Bruce Lunsford et al making weak promises we know they won't keep because they have just recently proven they cannot do so....right to work, healthcare  brought to you by Snidely Whiplash of Nursing Homes.....yes, he care, sure.

Sit back, relax, Mitch should have an enthusiastic opposition that will be well funded, and it will be from people who have had enough of the cynical, sarcastic, hopelessness of selling out to the highest bidder.

[ Parent ]
don't forget... (0.00 / 0)
... Fischer's ponies
[ Parent ]
Yarmuth and the KY establishment? (0.00 / 0)
and btw, since when is John Yarmuth part of the "KY establishment" of good ole boy Democrats and Schumer-philes? John Yarmuth is an amazing Congressmen who has stood up and did the right thing on FISA, Iraq, and the "MoveOn" vote. Great KY lib/progs like Crit Luallen and John Yarmuth are able to correctly see that Fischer using Vencor ads is simply doing Mitch McConnell's work for him a month early. Let Mitch do that and have "Medicare" come out of his lips, considering what Mitch has done to Medicare.

And btw, Fischer has now decided to abandon that strategy, as his new ad and Vencor-free press release are now showing. About time.

[ Parent ]
What is with you and Lunsford? .. (0.00 / 0)
they guy enodorsed Mitch once .. and I believe gave money too .. and that is who you want representing you?

John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
[ Parent ]
rather than Mitch? (0.00 / 0)
Yes, 100%.

Fischer gave $ to Anne Northup, and I'd rather have him than Mitch, too.

There's a time for idealism, and a time for pragmatism.

This is the time for pragmatism if we want to get rid of Mitch.

And in all fairness, Lunsford has given many many many thousands to Democrats over the past few years, and hasn't given to Reps in quite sometime. His work and fundraising for Beshear helped him get elected last Fall. So lets at least be accurate, here.

[ Parent ]
and you really think Lunsford can beat Mitch? .. (0.00 / 0)
how many times is he going to run for office and lose?  .. and do you really think Lunsford had anything to do with Beshear getting elected? .. or was Lunsford just playing good soldier?

John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
[ Parent ]
umm.. (0.00 / 0)
...yes, he had a great deal. do you know how much $$$ went Beshear's way due to him?

He's never run in  a general. We'll find out and let's hope for the best, eh?

[ Parent ]
Lunsford is so bad it's cartoonish (4.00 / 1)
I'd buy your argument if it didn't mean ripping away every single progressive value I have and flushing them down the toilet.  Seriously, Lunsford's no political moderate ... he's lucky to not be in jail right now.  Why?

1. At his nursing home, people were kicked out in favor of  people with better insurance.  One news report says senior citizens were "herded like cattle."  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

2. His business experience walks the thin line between incompetent and overwhelmed.  Seriously, just because you drove one company into bankruptcy doesn't mean you have "business experience."

3. He. Defrauded. Medicare. If that's not enough, he paid a $104 million dollar fine, the largest in US history.  

4. His horses always suck at the Kentucky Derby, but at least he gets to share the skybox with Mitch McConnel.  Seriously, if you think Lunsford will take the gloves off vs. his buddy Mitch, Kentucky has some beautiful oceanfront property I'd like to sell you ...

5. Watch this ad and tell me you could vote for thsi guy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

[ Parent ]
and... (0.00 / 0)
when I say disagree, I mean with the implication that Fischer is more electable that Lunsford. And this is from someone who is NOT a fan of Lunsford and was trying to get the netroots behind Horne in December, who was the best head-to-head matchup.
Why does Schumer have a job? (0.00 / 0)
I could see not intervening in a primary, but to come out for a guy involved in medicaid fraud?????????
Because Lunsford will blow his own $$$ ... (0.00 / 0)
that is why Schumer is backing him .. and that is pretty damn cynical

John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
[ Parent ]
true... (0.00 / 0)
... one of MANY reasons I supported Horne before the state Party and Schumer put on the squeeze. Now HE was a hell of a matchup head to head with Mitch. Luallen would have been too. Stumbo wouldn't have even been as bad as Lunsford. But Schumer beat us, and we have to take our shit and make fertilizer with it, folks.

It's about Mitch.

[ Parent ]
Kentucky Senate: Fischer Gains Another 6 on Lunsford | 24 comments
Donate to Open Left
ELECTION 2008 Presidential Forecast
Senate Forecast
House Forecast
PREMIUM AD

ADVERTISEMENTS



MENU

OpenLeft in your inbox!

 

Or, subscribe to each author individually.
OPTIMIZE MCCAIN About
Tips
McCain
John McCain
QUICK HITS
SEARCH

   

Advanced Search

OPENLEFT VIDEO WALL
Donna Edwards Thanks OpenLeft


Russ Feingold on the New FISA Legislation


Jon Conyers on Impeachment


Al Franken Thanks Blue Majority


FCC Commissioner Michael Copps on Pearl Jam, Net Neutrality


Darcy Burner on the FISA Legislation

More OpenLeft video...

LIBERAL INSTITUTIONS
BUSH DOGS
STATE BLOGS

Home | RSS/XML Feed | Register | Contact

  © OpenLeft 2007-2008, Powered by SoapBlox