These state polls (0.00 / 0)

and Rassmussen's other July state polling cannot be reconciled with their national polling.  

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by: fladem @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 18:12:43 PM CDT

Maybe the states are the leading indicators (4.00 / 2)

Touching on what I note below, maybe the polls can only be reconciled when you take into account where Obama is on the air.  Where Obama tries, he leads.  Where he doesn't, his lead recedes, leading to depressed national numbers and increased state leads.

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by: Werty83 @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 20:15:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Gallup's tracker (4.00 / 1)

also went from showing a 5-6 point lead to one of three points -- which isn't a huge change, but it is movement in the same direction as the other two national polls. Then again, looking at their history graph, it's been bouncing around between a dead heat and a 5-6 point Obama lead for quite some time now, so who really knows.

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by: illissius @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 18:20:15 PM CDT

Obama could be dropping nationally (4.00 / 5)

But where he's dropping is the more important question. If he loses 6 points in California and New York and gains 3 points in Ohio and Virginia, that's a damn good trade for him.

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by: NR @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 18:34:37 PM CDT

That's certainly what I hope is happening (0.00 / 0)

Is there any evidence for it, though?

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by: Matt H @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 07:20:49 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Question (4.00 / 1)

So if Obama's dropping poll numbers prove that Obama must act immediately on the criticisms of progressives / progressives must halt all criticisms of Obama immediately, then what do Obama's rising poll numbers prove?

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by: mcc @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 18:39:29 PM CDT

Poll numbers at this stage are ink blots (4.00 / 1)

They can mean whatever people want them to mean.

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by: NR @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 18:45:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But people write whole important articles (0.00 / 0)

based on poll numbers, you know...

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by: Obamamama @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:34:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Scoff All You Want About 3 EV States (4.00 / 2)

I don't know if he's on Obama's short list, but with all these Mountain West states so close Brian Schweitzer would be on mine. Putting one of their own on the ticket would be a huge way to reach out to voters in that state and really help the Democrats start to build their brand and lay the foundation for their winning coalition for the next few decades.

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by: ecotect @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 18:43:00 PM CDT

Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! (4.00 / 2)

Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff! Scoff!  

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 18:53:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Gesundheit (4.00 / 3)

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by: mcc @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 18:59:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yep (4.00 / 1)

You're exactly the one I was talking about. :)

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by: ecotect @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 19:08:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Now Up to 9 EVs (0.00 / 0)

Between MT, ND, and SD now we're talking about an EV haul equal to Colorado. If Obama picks off two of those plus Iowa, he's got the win even without Colorado.

Putting a guy who is culturally one of their own in the Mountain West would be a really strong, confident flanking maneuver politically to put on McCain. And he probably helps in NV, CO, and NM as well, especially in the rural areas where if Obama can hold McCain's margins to managable numbers he should be able to take the wins with his ground game in the urban areas of those states.

Schweitzer innoculates Obama on guns to a degree. I can see it now: the press narrative would be that Obama/Schweitzer really is a completely new brand of Democratic politics. It's change you can really believe in, because it completely does an end around past all the old right wing stereotypes of the Democratic Party, particularly on guns and God. And if Obama can get the airheads in the media to repeat that every single time Schweitzer's name comes up, and I think they would, he's got a legitimate shot to not only pick off all those states in the West, but also do well enough in rural OH, MO, NC, VA, etc etc and really run the table of swing states nationwide. He could probably even help pull some "no way" states like SC and MS temporarily into play after Obama gets his expected ginormous convention bounce.

That'd be a really compelling ticket and it would really put McCain in a heck of a spot.

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by: ecotect @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 19:26:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Two Words: (0.00 / 0)

Opportunity costs.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 19:32:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Two More Words: (0.00 / 0)

Tunnel vision.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 19:33:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Re: Tunnel Vision (0.00 / 0)

Funny, I was about to say the same to you.

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by: ecotect @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:17:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You're Fixated on Three EVs, And *I* Have Tunnel Vision? (0.00 / 1)

Congrats!  Your spot on FNC has just been confirmed!

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:53:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You're the one who brought up tunel vision in the first place. (0.00 / 0)

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by: ARingMD2B @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 00:51:03 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Your Point? (0.00 / 0)

Really?  What IS your point?

Of course I brought up tunnel vision in the first place, because focusing on one state's 3 EVs to the exclusion of all else is about the best example of tunnel vision as you can find.  Pointing this out is simply a matter of maintaining a reality-based perspective.

The Bart Simpson style, "I'm rubber and you're glue" response, OTOH, is pure Fox News Speak, and ought to be clearly recognized as such.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:16:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You say tunnel vision (4.00 / 1)

I say that some of us out here in flyover land would like to finally have a president who think's we're citizens, too.  A Democratic president.

50 state strategy, anyone?

War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength; McCain/Palin 2008

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by: cheesehead @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 07:13:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

PONIE! PONIE! PONIE! PONIE! PONIE! PONIE! PONIE! PONIE! (0.00 / 0)

So, unless we chose a VP from a state with 3 EVs who most of the country has never heard of before, we're all a bunch of latte-drinking, metrosexual, effete snobs, eh?

Like I said, "Tunnel Vision."

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:23:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wow (0.00 / 0)

That was incredibly cheap, Paul. I expect better from you.

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by: ecotect @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 09:48:29 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

You're A Total Joke! (0.00 / 0)

(1) You try to pull "I'm rubber and you're glue" on me, and

(2) then accuse me of being "incredibly cheap" when I call you on it!

Priceless!

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:19:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Act Your Age, Not Your Shoe Size, Friend (0.00 / 0)

First of all, we're not talking about 3 electoral votes, we're talking about a pool of at least 9 electoral votes that could be in play in the Mountain West between Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota, which you're fully aware of and yet still trying to push this 3 electoral vote straw man. Again, you're better than this.

Second, what's become patently obvious to many of us is that you're so gung ho for an Obama/Edwards ticket that anyone who suggests any other possible ticket gets treated with rude dismissiveness. Guess what, Paul? There are other potential running mates who bring positives to the table in this election (and one of them is more likely to be chosen than Edwards, I hate to say). You've made your argument for Edwards on countless occassions in your own way, and I respect your position (although I doubt the validity of several of your supporting points). Now, could you please be courteous and adult enough to those of us who disagree with you and think there might just be some alternatives out there that are equal or better to Edwards as to not act like petulent child at the mere suggestion of another ticket? And, at the same time, could you refrain from insulting good progressives by trying to throw the Fox News tag on them just because they do, God forbid, happen to disagree with you? That was the cheap shot.

As I've said before, and you've of course tuned out, a candidate like Schweitzer not only puts electoral votes in play in this election, but he holds the potential to open up the Mountain West to Democrats well into the future by aggressively showing that the party is willing to embrace candidates who are culturally their own. What goes along with that is a stereotype breaking narrative that shows the party is attentive to the issues of rural America and open minded on the issue of guns, and anything that breaks the Republican Party's stranglehold on rural America puts them in a deep hole electorally because of Democrats long-standing ability to win urban centers big.

Much has been written about the importance the West will hold for the Democratic Party in building a permanent progressive majority over the next few decades, including work that goes back several years by your friend Bowers, for instance. Putting Schweitzer on the ticket could accelerate the blueing of the Mountain West. Now, granted, that might not show up as vividly on a couple dozen Survey USA poll graphs, but that doesn't mean there's not value or merit in it that might deserve discussion above and beyond stomping your foot and saying, "You can't pick him for just 3 electoral votes!"  

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by: ecotect @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 20:09:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Geez. You wanted to scoff a lot. (0.00 / 0)

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by: Matt H @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 07:21:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Just Don't Think National Polls Mean As Much (4.00 / 1)

We know that changes in population polled played a role in the Obama drop in Newsweek.  This is not "proof" that Newsweek did a bad poll.  It's just part of the fluctuations we should normally expect to see over the course of an election.  Given that there are relatively few national polls, these fluctuations will have an outsized effect, however.  The tracking polls could be an answer to this, but they, too, are difficult to get a bead on, because there aren't enough other polls to compare them to.  We simply have to take it on faith that their samples--and the models behind them--are good.  But we all know that this is an art, at best, and that without enough other polls to balance them out, we really can't be too sure of what's going on.  Thus, we're left with a relatively high degree of uncertainty--at least at this point in the cycle.

In contrast, the state-level polls give a better overall mix of different polsters, and allow us to compare similar sorts of states, using a variety of different criteria--2004 status, geography, demographics, etc.  This creates a situation in which I think that the national polls simply don't tell us as much as the state polls do.  And it's not anyone's fault that this is the case.  It's simply a result of the overall environment that we're in right now.


"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 18:51:11 PM CDT

I agree (4.00 / 1)

but one problem I have is the enourmous effect one pollster is having on the analysis right now.  Rasmussen is one of the two doing tracking, and they have done well over half the state polling in July.

Their most recent state numbers cannot be reconciled with the their national numbers.

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by: fladem @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 19:02:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've learned to trust your thinking (0.00 / 0)

on these matters. What's your opinion of the theory that Obama's 'getting lucky' -- he's losing support in places he doesn't need it and gaining some of it back in places he does?

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by: Matt H @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 07:24:08 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Newsweek polled two different countries (0.00 / 0)

or so to speak

I point to MI's excellent blogger DHinMI

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

It's a fascinating contrast as you'll see.  From Chris's writing, it doesn't seem like he's aware of it either.  And in general, National polls are kinda dubious.  Even if they poll 1000 people, that's like 20 people per state average, or if they do it by population, does that mean 5 people get polled in SD? It's useful to watch the trends, and scour the methodology.  

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by: gaspare @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 07:48:31 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Keeping the keg dry (4.00 / 1)

It seems to me that this is more evidence of the relative frugality of the Obama campaign right now.  McCain is on TV everywhere, while Obama is doing some fund-raising rounds.  

Where Obama is advertising, which are essentially the states Chris has noted his relative performance is strong, he obviously is not being as frugal.  And that I think is the point--when Obama gets better positive free media (convention, debates), and spends on his own positive media, he will be doing well nationally.  What I have noticed in the national polls is that McCain simply cannot get above 44% nationally except for a couple Rasmussen polls.  Everybody talks about Obama being an enigma, but there's a flip side to that: McCain is a known quantity, and the only sense in which he's not known is that he's not moderate.  As a known quantity, he can't get above 44%.  The more Obama floods the airwaves with his stories, the more he becomes an acceptable alternative to McCain, and the better he does.

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by: Werty83 @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 20:01:17 PM CDT

National Poll Drop (0.00 / 0)

I was just checking the last couple of National polls, and there really doesn't seem to be any difference. The last 5 head to head polls have Obama up by 4,8,8,5,and 3.

Other than the last Newsweek Poll seems pretty stable to me.

As for the tracking polls, I just ignore them. I remember at the end of May when Obama for the first time started beating McCain in every poll, he was behind in both tracking polls.

Didn't make any sense, so I  just ignore them. Better off looking at regular polls, and really, I don't see any real change. And certainly the state polling, and electotral collage look pretty good.

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by: nocementbags @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:05:38 PM CDT

according to ambinder (0.00 / 0)

BOTH campaigns polling internals show a 4 to 9 point Obama lead, using a tight likely voter screen. much ado about fill in the blank.

http://marcambinder.theatlanti...

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by: aiko @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:59:33 PM CDT

Not to mention... (0.00 / 0)

The polls don't account for the force multiplier effect that Obama's campaign will almost certainly bring to bear with its millions of volunteers and thousands of paid staffers. Whether that effect is 1.01, 1.05 or even 1.3 -- we don't know yet. But even the McCain campaign acknowledges its existence.

Marc Ambinder - Interpreting The National Polls The Atlantic 14 Jul 08

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by: Shaun Appleby @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 00:03:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

And the cellphone add of 2-3 points (0.00 / 0)

Of course, this has been falsely trumpeted before the increase of cellphone-only users and households continues and Obama's most energetic supporters may fall disproportionately in this category.

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by: Matt H @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 07:26:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Post Editor Needed. Will Pay Nothing. (0.00 / 0)

that should read 'trumpeted before but the increase...'

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by: Matt H @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 07:28:12 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Interesting (4.00 / 3)

I was actually hoping he'd take a small hit after all the bad press surrounding the FISA cave.  He actually seemed worried about the criticism, and acted like a progressive again today with a good Iraq op-ed in the New York Times.

While I'm encouraged with the improved state polls, I do hope that Obama has recognized some consequence of his centrism strategy, if not in poll numbers, then in dampened enthusiasm and decreased donations.  If anything, it hasn't been a good week for him the media, which the campaign probably pays a lot more attention to than whiner DFH's who frequent progressive blogs.

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by: BCdem @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 22:47:27 PM CDT

Quinnipiac national poll says Obama +9 (0.00 / 0)

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 08:45:42 AM CDT

Amazing. Obama is going down and no one will admit it. (0.00 / 0)

The campaign committee and major media were looking for a 15% pop. It is not happening. Why? Because the American people are still not sure about Obama.

Clinton in '08. Or give Carter a 2nd term. Vote for Obama!

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by: Joliepoint @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:57:20 AM CDT