| The State of the Race Today
We have made a lot of gains in the past couple of weeks since our low point in the days after the Republican convention, returning to our strongest point in the spring after Obama won the primary and consolidated the party behind him. Behind in the national numbers and beginning to be stretched thin on money, they find themselves defending what is normally home turf: VA, NC, IN, MO, and even WV are all states that Bush had already wrapped up by now in 2004 where the numbers are far too close for comfort right now. And classic swing states that Bush carried like IA, NM, CO, NV and OH are all moving in our direction.
Enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket among traditionally hard to turn out voting blocs like young people and African-Americans is high, voter registration numbers are way up, and there is more activity on the ground by Democratic field staff and volunteers than in any election in modern history, adding to the good news.
The numbers in Senate and congressional races have spiked even more in recent days, as both the generic national congressional vote and numbers in individual competitive races have all moved even more dramatically than in the Presidential race. It is clear now that the congressional and Presidential level are closely held together, with the congressional numbers generally running 5-7 points above Obama's. That means if Obama wins big, we win congressional Senate races really big.
But this election is not over. It's not just the old cliché that a month is a lifetime when it comes to politics, although that's true enough: in a year this wild especially, anything could happen. It is also a fact there are still two ways that republicans could pull at least the Presidential election out of the magic hat. Conveniently for them, their tactics for both methods of changing this race directly overlap.
By running a meta-nasty culture war campaign, a muddy and bloody slashfest to the end, they still could win this thing in these two ways:
1. Take older blue collar voters' minds off the economy and raise their discomfort with Obama. This is the obvious way of winning this thing. The reason I am convinced that this election is not done is the continued volatility of older blue collar voters, and of course especially women. This group has never bonded with Obama, still have their worries about him. And the Obama campaign doesn't have much credibility with them- during the otherwise successful Democratic Convention, older blue collar women voters actually went down in their support for Obama while every other demographic cohort was rising.
The economic troubles of the past month, McCain's erratic behavior, worries about Palin because of the Katie Couric interview, and Obama's steady performance at the debate all have helped move this critical swing group more our way, but they remain volatile and uncertain about Obama. And to make a rather obvious point: they are the demographic group for whom culture war politics was invented by Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan in the 1960s. The Republicans know how to go after them, and are clearly gearing up the ugliness big time. The fact that they are targeting a black man with a funny name and an immigrant father just makes it all easier. The moment we all knew was coming since Obama became our nominee is here, as we will see every sleazy, lowlife outrage of advertising, direct mail, and phone calls inundate voters.
2. Ironically, in a way most folks aren't thinking about right now, the exact opposite demographic cohort- strongly pro-Obama, high-enthusiasm young people- is the other target of all this ugliness. Not in the sense of swinging their votes to McCain, which is virtually lost to them by now, but instead of turning them off from politics entirely. The Republicans have always been good at voter suppression among racial minorities and poor people, and will of course deploy such methods again. But what they hope is that the incredible ugliness of their campaign makes the feel of this race so revolting, so nasty, and so disgusting that young people not as sure about voting think to themselves: politics is dirty, it doesn't relate to my life, to hell with it.
By distracting the Obama campaign and the media from talking about real issues, by making them race from ridiculous charge to phony ad and talk about them, McCain hopes to repeat the success of early September- teaching kindergarteners about sex, lipstick on pigs, etc. If that's what politics is all about, many young people may say, maybe I'm not so interested..
This is the double-edged challenge of the slash-and-burn October the McCain campaign is planning. I hope the Obama campaign continues to respond quickly and effectively like they are doing with this ad contrasting Obama on the economy with the mud from McCain. Even more importantly, though, they need to stay on offense. Hit first rather than just hit back. Rapid attack rather than just rapid response. The last thing they should be doing right now is going into prevent defense mode and just trying to run out the clock. They need to stay confident and aggressive in these final weeks, and stay on offense.
It's not easy to keep the focus on issues when the media loves the mud. But there is so much to go after McCain on: his record, his issue positions, his lobbyist-run and funded campaign. There is so much to work with, so that we keep McCain on defense.
The other huge thing that is critical in this race is the independent validators: the people and organizations, nationally and in the key states, who have credibility with key demographic groups and in the targeted states. When Gov. Strickland in Ohio- a major Hillary supporter by the way- goes to every county in Ohio (as he plans to do, from what I hear) talking about how important an Obama victory is and how good a President he will be, that is an enormous help, and other swing state politicians should follow that lead. Progressive organizations are out telling their members and in some cases the general public where McCain is on the key issues, and that's important too, even though the non-partisan ones are not doing it to elect Obama but to educate the public on their issues (I'm all for non-partisan issue education by progressive groups). And for the groups who have endorsed, and are doing a full-scale drive to educate their members about why they endorsed, that is a very powerful thing for those voters in trying to decide whether they can trust Obama.
The States
I know people get info from state polls and to a lesser extent voter registration numbers constantly, but there is a lot that goes on under the radar screen that is less covered by punditry. As I have written about before, this includes how strong campaigns' staffers are in the state, how engaged state and local elected officials are, what local issues are particularly big, whether the election officials are Republicans or Democrats, how good the state parties are, local voter registration and absentee ballot laws, ballot initiatives on the state ballots, the quality of down-ballot campaigns/candidates, the quality and the fundraising base of local progressive and conservative organizations. Based on all of this, plus of course the polling and voter registration trends, here's how I would rate the swing states:
Kerry states we still need to keep an eye on:
1. Pennsylvania. The biggest prize the McCain people still have their eye on. It's certainly not out of reach for them, but has gotten steadily tougher. The state party here is historically weak, although it seems stronger than it used to be. The AFL-CIO, SEIU, Teamsters, Steelmakers, Pennsylvania State Education Association, and Democratic-oriented union retiree groups all have big membership and reasonably good political operations. I don't believe polls showing 8-point or more leads. PA is historically a close state, and the demographics here are challenging for Obama. I would say we're at about 4 points up today, if you take everything into account, but it will tighten up if Obama's numbers drop nationally.
2. New Hampshire. I don't believe the polls that show a big lead for Obama, as independents in the state have a decade-long comfort level with McCain and are notoriously volatile. This will be a dogfight to the end.
The state party, bolstered by years of top operatives paying attention to the Presidential primary, is solid, but most of the outside progressive groups in NH are relatively weak. EMILY's List is making a strong push here to help Shaheen, and that will help Obama as well.
The thing we have going for us is a trend in the last couple of elections for independents to break Democratic in the final days. If that pattern continues, we'll be fine here. If not, it will be the toughest of the Kerry states to win.
3. Wisconsin. This is another state trending our way, but not done yet. The good news is that there's a great Obama organization left over from the primary, the state party is in decent shape, and the outside groups are very strong overall here, and work very well together. With all of that on the ground, and the natural Democratic lean in this state, we should be okay here.
As far as I can tell, every other state (and congressional district, including the Maine congressional district that's always tougher) that Kerry won seems to be fairly locked down even if the national numbers tighten up. The McCain people apparently believe they still have a shot in the Maine CD, so we should keep an eye on that one.
Most likely Bush 2004 states for Obama:
1. Iowa. Iowa appears locked down. Obama still has the great organization built for the caucuses, with a strong state party and pretty good outside progressive groups.
2. New Mexico. Absent a last-minute surge in McCain support among Hispanics, which seems unlikely (the Republican brand because of their racist rhetoric on immigration is mud), NM is fairly locked down. I'm slightly more nervous there because the state party and outside progressive infrastructure are not as strong, but overall it looks pretty strong.
3. Colorado. Progressive donors and organizations have done a great job transforming the politics CO in the last four years, as it's gone from a state Bill Clinton didn't win in his landslide electoral victory in 1996 to a state leaning toward Obama. Lots yet to do here- youth and Hispanic turnout will be key, and we need to win independent white voters by a significant amount, which isn't easy- but I feel pretty good about our chances.
On the local issue side, McCain is on the wrong side of a very big water issue for CO, and the League of Conservation Voters has been hammering him on it.
4. Ohio. The Rosetta Stone of American Presidential politics. Winning here is never easy, and costs boatloads of money, but in spite of the demographic challenges, right now it feels like we are on the path to victory here. Although racial dynamics will lose Obama some votes that Kerry got, we have four big advantages over 2004:
- First, Bush successfully peeled off 16% of the black vote in 2004. That will not be happening in 2008, plus black turnout will be up.
- Second, Kenneth Blackwell no longer has the power to screw with black, poor, and young voters. Jennifer Brunner is a great Secretary of State, and will make sure it's easier for people to vote.
- Third, Ted Strickland is a popular sitting Governor, and he is working his heart out here.
- Fourth, the Ohio Democratic Party is dramatically stronger than it was in 2004.
If the race tightens up nationally, this is a 50-50 state, but I'd give us a pretty god shot at squeaking through because of all those other factors.
5. Nevada. Nevada's quite a bit tougher than the other two western swing states- fewer Hispanics than New Mexico, less outside progressive organizations than CO- and the polling trends reflects that. But the overall western trend seems to be moving our way, and if we can maximize Hispanic turnout here, we've got a solid shot.
6. Virginia. With its strong high-tech corridor and big numbers of immigrants in Northern VA, combined with its traditional big African-American vote, Virginia has become the number one test in the country of whether the Republican South can be won. The Obama campaign has poured huge resources into voter registration in the state, and Tim Kaine and Jim Webb have been valuable and energetic allies. Outside progressive organizations are stronger here than they used to be, too. If the election were held today, I'm fairly sure we would win, although I don't believe the polls that we are 10 points ahead. If things tighten up nationally, we will probably narrowly lose, but forcing McCain to spend money in this incredibly expensive DC market is a big drain on their resources, so even if we lose narrowly it helps us in other ways.
7. Florida. With FL economy totally messed up, this demographically challenged state for Obama has come alive. I still think in the end with Republicans still in charge of the election machinery and demographics still against us, with a weak state party and outside progressive groups, we probably won't pull it out. But McCain will have to spend massive amounts of money to hang on.
8. North Carolina. Big numbers of black voters, huge gains in registration over 10% of the population is now Hispanic, and the Research Triangle has a lot of creative coalition types, so the demographics here are pretty interesting. Very weak labor movement, though, and outside progressive infrastructure is not strong, although it's getting better. This is another state we probably lose if the national numbers tighten up, but to be competitive at all is remarkable.
9. Missouri. The Show-Me state is a tough place for Democrats to win, but the nationwide drop in McCain's numbers have put it firmly in play. We have a great Democratic Secretary of State there, which helps by making it easier for minorities, youth and the poor to vote. There are also some decent outside groups doing good organizing, but it's very tough demographically. If the national race tightens up, we will lose here, but right now, it's competitive.
10. Indiana. Other than the neighbor connection, it doesn't make sense to me that we remain so close in Indiana, and if the national numbers tighten, we won't win here. But again: McCain having to spend money in the Chicago and Indianapolis markets is a joy to behold.
11. Omaha district. Sorry to be so pessimistic about my old home state, and God bless all you Nebraskans who are working your hearts out to prove me wrong, but I will be very surprised on election night if that electoral vote goes our way. Omaha is a very conservative town, and I will be blown away if it actually happens- utterly thrilled, but blown away.
Now is the time to turn on the gas
This election will be historic no matter what. We are on the verge of a historic landslide or the bitterest missed opportunity in modern American history. Now is not time to let up, stop giving money, stop volunteering, or otherwise backing off from the fight. The McCain campaign is going to throw the kitchen sink at Obama, and the still potent and well-financed right-wing infrastructure are going to dump millions of phone calls and mail pieces that are vicious and ugly to the core, and spend millions on sleazy ads that do the same. Outside right-wing groups are outspending progressive 527s by more than 10-1 on the presidential level. We can't assume that those tactics won't work, because unless we fight back, this thing might still slip away.
We have a chance, though, if we don't let our foot off their neck, to deal our right-wing Republican opponents a truly crushing defeat of historic proportions. This could be 1932 again in terms of the size of the defeat.
And by the way, this is not just the Presidency. Right now, with Obama at his current margin (about six points), we could easily pick up twenty-plus seats in the House and eight seats in the Senate. If the positive momentum builds, we could be looking at even bigger numbers. But if Obama's numbers fade, we won't have anywhere near that kind of congressional pick-up.
So now is the time: don't back off, don't make any assumptions about winning. Now is the time to turn on the gas, give until it hurts, and do everything in your power to help make the right kind of history. |
